中国能源安全的软肋

飞雪寒冰

Beijing’s decision to suspend approval for new nuclear facilities in the aftermath of the Japanese nuclear crisis caught world markets by surprise and suggested a Chinese energy policy in crisis. But it is vulnerability to oil market disruptions emanating from ongoing events in the Middle East, not the ability to diversify future power supply, which is currently upending China’s energy game plan.
在日本爆发核危机之后，中国政府宣布暂停审批新的核设施，这令全球市场感到意外，同时也表明中国的能源政策正面临危机。但是，目前打乱中国能源计划的，并非其对未来电力供应进行多样化调整的能力，而是其易受石油市场混乱冲击的脆弱性。目前中东地区正在发生的事件导致了石油市场的混乱。

China’s recent nuclear decision, driven by short-term politics, is not likely to change its long-term energy path. The country’s oil dependence, however, is a much more pressing concern. China’s economy is more oil intensive than either America or Europe, while half of its imported oil comes from the Middle East and north Africa, compared with one-quarter for the US. If crude stays at current prices China will spend more on oil this year than it earns selling goods to the US.
中国近期由于短期政治因素而做出的核决定，不太可能改变其长期能源发展道路。但是，中国对于石油的依赖，则是一项远为紧迫的关切。中国经济对石油的需求超过了美国或欧洲，半数的石油进口来自于中东和北非地区——美国的这一比例仅为四分之一。如果原油价格维持在当前水平，那么今年中国在原油上的支出，将超过向美国出口货物的收入。

飞雪寒冰

What really worries China’s leadership, however, is the risk that oil prices will add to already elevated inflation. Inflation pressures helped to fuel 1989’s Tiananmen Square protests, just as it more recently helped to spark the current uprisings in the Middle East. Consumer prices are now rising at least 5 per cent year-on-year; less than the 11 per cent seen in Egypt but double last year. Unofficial estimates are higher.
然而，真正让中国领导层担忧的，是油价将加大业已上升的通胀风险。通胀压力在一定程度上促成了1989年的Tiananmen抗议活动，正如最近它引发了中东地区的动荡一样。目前中国消费者价格指数的同比涨幅为5%，低于埃及的11%，但与去年相比增长了一倍。非官方的估计数据则更高。

The state has the option of stepping in to stop costs reaching China’s drivers but even price controls have their limits. During the 2008 oil price spike, for instance, refiners found excuses to stop selling petrol and diesel at all, rather than take government-mandated losses. The resulting fuel shortages prompted widespread protests.
中国政府可以选择进行干预，不让驾车者承担油价上涨的成本，但即使价格管控也有其限度。例如，在2008年油价飙升期间，炼油厂找借口干脆停止销售汽油和柴油，而不是按照政府指令承担亏损。由此导致的燃油短缺引发了普遍的抗议。

飞雪寒冰

Worse, most oil in China is not used in passenger vehicles but in industry and agriculture, where government price controls are either absent or less effective. Energy accounts for a third of the cost of grain production and oil prices are increasing demand for biofuels. Food prices are rising twice as fast as consumer prices overall.
更糟的是，中国大部分石油并非用于乘用车，而是用于工业和农业——在这些领域，政府要么没有实施价格控制，要么控制得不那么有效。能源占到谷物生产成本的三分之一，而油价正在推高人们对生物燃料的需求。食品价格的涨幅是总体消费者价格的两倍。

Over the long term, China’s best bet is to reduce the oil required to fuel its growth. But planned investments in energy efficiency, electric vehicles and high-speed rail will take time. A strategy for stabilising international supply is thus the only near-term option. Previous attempts have seen China encourage its three largest oil companies to take equity stakes in international oil projects. This policy, known as “equity oil”, hoped to guard against price volatility and interruptions in supply. The companies were happy to oblige: with domestic fields maturing, their best route to increased profits was to expand their businesses overseas.
长期而言，中国的最佳选择是减少经济增长对石油的需求。但拟议中在能效、电动汽车和高铁上的投资需要时间。因此，短期内一项稳定国际供应的战略是唯一选择。此前中国已采取措施，鼓励三大国有石油公司参股国际石油项目。这种被称之为“股本石油”的政策，旨在防范油价波动和供应中断。这些公司乐于从命：随着国内油田达到成熟期，它们提升利润水平的最佳途径就是海外扩张。

飞雪寒冰

But a decade later it is clear that, while the companies have profited, neither Chinese citizens nor policymakers have seen much reward. If all the equity oil produced outside China were transported home (which it is not) it would still only meet a fraction of the country’s import needs. This means it actually provides little insurance against supply disruptions. The oil that China-owned companies do send is then sold to domestic refineries at international prices, so there are no savings for the country as a whole.
但在上述策略实施了十年后人们发现，尽管这些公司赚到了钱，但中国民众和政策制定者都没能获得多大回报。如果把中国境外所有的股权石油都运回国内（目前并未如此），也只能满足中国一小部分进口需求。这意味着，它实际上没有提供多少针对供应中断的“保险”。中国国有公司的确向国内运回了石油，但它们随后被以国际价格卖给国内炼厂，因此整体而言中国没有任何节省。

Worse, the proliferation of Chinese resource investment around the world is now creating foreign policy headaches for Beijing. The current unrest in Libya is one obvious case in point: last month more than 30,000 Chinese citizens had to be evacuated from the country after a group of oil workers was attacked.
更糟糕的是，中国在全球各地大举进行资源投资，给中国政府造成了外交政策上的难题。利比亚目前的动荡就是一个明显的例子：上月，在一些石油工人遇袭后，3万多中国公民不得不撤离该国。

飞雪寒冰

China can probably weather current prices, and keep inflation at bay, provided oil doesn’t rise further. But its best hope to guard against future rises is to end its failing policy of hoping for preferential access to foreign supplies. Instead, a new approach of co-ordinating with oil-consuming nations is needed.
只要油价不再继续上涨，中国或许能够承受住当前的价格，并让通胀得到控制。但在防范未来油价上涨方面，中国最大的希望是结束其寄望于优先获取外国供应的失败政策。相反，中国需要采取一种与其他石油消费国合作的新方式。

Here there are some encouraging signs. China has been relatively constructive during UN Security Council deliberations on Libya, certainly when compared with previous UN efforts relating to unstable oil-producing states. The crisis may have made Beijing realise both that its reliance on global energy markets makes such co-operation a necessity, while insistence on national sovereignty becomes harder when it’s your own citizens that are under attack.
目前有一些令人鼓舞的迹象。在联合国安理会(UN Security Council)商议对利比亚的行动期间，中国表现得相对而言较为“积极”——当然，这是与前几次联合国对局势动荡的产油国采取措施时相比较而言。危机可能促使中国政府意识到：由于对全球能源市场的依赖，中国必须要进行此类合作；同时，当本国公民遇袭之际，中国更难以坚持不干涉他国主权的立场。

飞雪寒冰

A united approach to Libya can prevent other regimes in the region from responding violently to popular protests. As it is the violent response more than the initial protests that takes oil off the market this is likely to lower the chance that current disruptions to supplies will spread.
对利比亚采取联合行动，可以避免中东地区的其它政权以暴力方式应对民众的抗议活动。目前石油市场上的供应短缺，更大程度上是由政府的暴力回应、而非起初的民众抗议所致，有鉴于此，上述做法可能会降低当前供应中断状况蔓延的可能性。

If they do, however, oil consuming countries may need to tap their strategic reserves. And that includes China. Speculation that China will respond by building its own stockpiles, rather than using them to calm world prices, is already starting to increase oil costs. Greater transparency from Beijing can help to deliver price relief. If China starts working with other oil consuming countries to develop a game plan for co-ordinating stockpile releases, it will find itself far more secure than simply relying on the limited international oil that its companies produce.
然而，如果他们采取上述做法，石油消费国（包括中国在内）可能需要动用自己的战略储备。市场传闻称，中国的应对举措将是累积本国的石油储备，而不是利用储备来平抑世界油价，这已经开始在推高油价。中国政府增强透明度，可能有助于平抑价格。如果中国开始与其它石油消费国合作、制定一项协调释放储备的策略，它将发现，这比仅仅依赖本国企业产生的有限国际石油要牢靠得多。

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