市场该DIZHI恐慌

飞雪寒冰

Markets are bad at valuing low-probability extreme events. Put differently, investors often respond to a radical increase in uncertainty with panic. It is hard to stand still when the Middle East is in turmoil or when there is the risk of a Japanese nuclear catastrophe, let alone both simultaneously. Usually it is clever to get well in front of a stampede. But mass movement of money is a dangerous business.
市场在评估低概率极端事件方面，表现向来不佳。换言之，对于不确定性的骤增，投资者往往做出恐慌的反应。当中东陷入动荡、或日本有可能发生核灾难之际，人们很难保持平静，更遑论两种情况同时出现。通常，在别人四散逃离时保持镇定是明智之举。但大量挪动资金则是一件危险的事情。

For traders, Japan has eclipsed the dangers of the Middle East but the news of Saudi troops moving into Bahrain could refocus fears. After all, in the event of a (still improbable) Chernobyl-style explosion at Fukushima, the extent and cost of the damage would be known quickly: a (similarly improbable) regional war in the Middle East could cut oil and gas production significantly for a generation, with costs open-ended.
对于交易员而言，日本形势的严峻性超过了中东危机，但沙特派兵进入巴林的消息，可能使中东重新成为人们担心的焦点。毕竟，倘若福岛发生切尔诺贝利(Chernobyl)式的爆炸（可能性仍然不大），人们很快就会知道破坏的范围和损失；而一旦中东地区爆发地区战争（同样可能性不大），则可能在整整一代人的时间内，令油气产量大幅缩减，损失将无可估量。

飞雪寒冰

Expertise cannot really help. Even nuclear experts do not know enough to make accurate predictions about the situation in Japan. The Middle East is arguably worse, since the risk is of the breakdown of an order that has lasted for generations.
专业知识并不真正管用。即使核专家的所知，也不足以对日本当前形势作出准确的预测。中东局势可能更糟，因为存在一种已持续数代的秩序瓦解的风险。

But each calamity, however unlikely, poses insoluble problems for investors. Refusing to go with an irrational flow hurts performance for a while, and could prove durably stupid if the terrible event actually happens. And even accurate knowledge of small probabilities cannot really help. If the 0.05 per cent (say) chance of a nuclear mega-disaster turns into reality, the right portfolio is the panic one. A more normal selection would hardly be helped by a probability-weighted hedge. But if the 99.95 per cent chance proves right, high-minded resistance to fear is correct in the long term.
但每一种灾难——无论多么不可能——都向投资者提出了一些无解的问题。拒绝追随无理性的大流，会在短期内影响业绩，而且，一旦灾难性事件真的发生，还可能长时间贴上愚蠢的标签。而即使对小概率事件的认识准确无误，也不真正管用。比方说，如果概率为0.05%的重大核灾难变成现实，正确的投资组合应该是恐慌之下的选择。概率加权对冲对更标准的投资组合选择几乎完全没用。但如果结果证明是概率为99.95%那种可能性，那么从长期来看，高傲地DIZHI恐慌就是正确的。

飞雪寒冰

The resolutely rational must also recognise the power of panic, justified or not. It took six months for the S&P 500 to recover from the “flash crash” on May 6 2010, which was based on a technical error that lasted only a few hours. Still, however distorting phoney fears may be, they are far preferable to genuine calamities.
坚决选择理性也必须认识到恐慌的力量，无论它合理与否。标普500指数用了6个月的时间，才从2010年5月6日的“闪电暴跌”(flash crash)中恢复过来，而暴跌的根本原因是仅仅持续数小时的技术故障。尽管如此，无论恐慌多么扭曲和失实，它们都远比真正的灾难更为可取。

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