中国经济减速了吗？

飞雪寒冰

One of the more memorable sound bites from China’s annual policy review, which closed on Monday, was the description by Wen Jiabao, the prime minister, of inflation as a tiger that “once set free will be very difficult to put back into its cage”. Lending data continues to suggest that the tiger is not just uncaged, but pacing about.
在周一结束的中国年度政策审议会议期间，有几句话让人难忘，其中之一是中国总理温Jiabao的比喻：“通货膨胀就像一只老虎，如果放出来关进去很难。”从中国的贷款数据看，这只老虎不但已经出笼，而且还十分活跃。

New loans were Rmb534bn in February, about double the pre-crisis run rate. Total system-wide loans outstanding rose to just shy of Rmb49,000bn at the end of the month, more than double the total of February 2007. Rampant credit growth is not a menace, in itself, as growth in deposits has more than kept pace. But what is worrying is the behavioural effect. The annual consumer price inflation rate was 4.9 per cent in both January and February, exceeding the government’s 4 per cent target. Property, meanwhile, continues its relentless march upwards. Prices of new homes rose in January from a year earlier in all but two of 70 cities monitored by central planners. Households, fearing shrinking purchasing power, are keeping more cash close at hand. Over the course of last year the share of household savings locked up in time, rather than demand, deposits fell from 62 per cent to 60.
2月份新增贷款达到5340亿元人民币，约为金融危机前通常水平的两倍。截至上月底，整个体系的未偿贷款总额逼近49万亿元人民币，为2007年2月的两倍多。迅猛的信贷增长本身不构成一种威胁，因为储蓄增长更快。但令人担心的是行为效应。1月和2月的消费价格指数(CPI)均同比上涨4.9%，超过4%的政府目标。与此同时，房价继续无情上涨。1月，在中央规划者监测的70座城市中，只有2座城市的新住宅价格未出现同比上涨。担心购买力缩水的中国家庭，正把更多现金放在手边。去年全年期间，家庭储蓄中定期存款的比率从62%降至60%。

飞雪寒冰

The central bank has tried to dampen spirits with three increases in interest rates and five rises in reserve requirements since mid-October. But these are manifestly ineffectual dabs at the brakes. The Conference Board’s economic index for China, a measure of current activity spanning raw-material supplies to construction, increased 1.4 per cent in January, after gaining a revised 0.1 per cent in December. In other pronouncements at the National People’s Congress premier Wen talked of the importance of China reining in its credit and investment-led growth. As yet, there is no evidence of that.
中国央行已试图采取措施降温，自去年10中旬以来三次加息，五次上调银行存款准备金率。但这些踩刹车动作显然是无力的。大企业联合会的中国经济指数（衡量当前活动，涵盖从原材料供应到建筑的各行各业）1月上升1.4%，而去年12月的数字经修订后上升0.1%。温Jiabao总理在全国人大上发表的其它讲话中，曾谈到中国控制其信贷和投资拉动型增长的重要性。而迄今为止，并没有这方面的证据。

沈伍刑

路过看看的啊，给楼主顶了的啊……
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