日本地震会引爆金融地震吗？

飞雪寒冰

If ever investors needed a reminder to stay humble, this week provided it. It saw the second anniversary of one of history’s great relief rallies, which has seen stocks double in two years. But it brought alarm about the Middle East and about the eurozone, fears that the market rally might carry the seeds of its own destruction – and then on Friday the appalling news from Japan.
如果说投资者需要什么东西来提醒他们保持清醒，那么上周发生的事件就起到了这样的作用。上周迎来了史上最大规模触底反弹之一的两周年纪念日。在这两年内，股Shi上涨了一倍。然而，中东和欧元区的局势引起了人们的惊慌。人们担心，市场反弹埋下了自我毁灭的种子。到了周五，从日本传来了可怕的消息。

Even before the earthquake, one legendary investor, Bill Gross of Pimco, was scaring markets by announcing that he had sold all his US Treasury bonds, while another great investor, Carl Icahn, was giving his investors’ money back. “While we are not forecasting another market dislocation,” he said, “this possibility cannot be dismissed. Given the rapid market run-up over the past two years and our ongoing concerns about the economic outlook, and recent political tensions in the Middle East, I do not wish to be responsible to limited partners through another possible market crisis.”
甚至在地震之前，传奇投资者、太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)的比尔•格罗斯(Bill Gross)就吓到了市场，他宣布已经卖掉了自己持有的全部美国国债。另一位杰出的投资者卡尔•伊坎(Carl Icahn)则准备归还投资者的资金。他表示：“我们并不是预测市场将再度陷入混乱，但这种可能性不能排除。考虑到过去两年市场的快速上涨和我们目前对经济前景的担忧，以及近期中东紧张的政局，我可不想在另一轮可能的市场危机中向有限合伙人负责。”

飞雪寒冰

How great is that risk? The earthquake need not increase the risk of a true market crash. Such events have more to do with the previous behaviour of the market than they do with events in the real world surrounding them. The Wall Street Crash of 1929, the Black Monday Crash of 1987, and the collapses of the Tokyo stock market in 1990 and of the US Nasdaq in 2000, all started with little or no trigger from the real world. The common theme was that markets had grown wildly overvalued.
爆发新一轮市场危机的风险有多大？地震未必会增加市场崩盘的风险。比起现实世界发生的事件，崩盘与先前的市场行为关系更大。1929年华尔街股灾、1987年黑色星期一股灾、1990年东京股Shi崩盘以及2000年美国纳斯达克崩盘，在现实世界中都没有或几乎没有导火索。它们共同的主线是市场估值已经高得惊人。

There are exceptions. For example, the market convulsions following the Kobe earthquake did for Barings Bank, and a bear market followed the Opec oil embargo of 1973. But a lot must still go wrong in the Middle East for the disruption to get close to the severity of 1973. As oil is a smaller share of expenditures now, Veronique Riches-Flores of Société Générale suggests it would need to reach $200 a barrel to have as deadening effect on the west’s economy as in 1973. It is now just over $100.
但也有例外。比如，神户地震摧毁巴林银行(Barings Bank)之后的市场动荡，以及1973年欧佩克(Opec)石油禁运之后的熊市。但是，中东局势仍需大为恶化，其造成的混乱程度才会接近1973年时的情形。鉴于石油在支出中所占比重下降，法国兴业银行(Société Générale)的分析师韦罗妮克•里奇斯－弗洛雷斯(Veronique Riches-Flores)认为，油价除非涨到每桶200美元，对西方经济体的破坏作用才会与1973年相当。而目前油价仅略高于100美元。

飞雪寒冰

So when assessing this week’s fallout for our financial prospects, the question remains: is there excess in the market?
因此，要评估上周事件对金融前景的影响，仍然要看以下这一点：市场是否存在过度行为？

Pessimism was so extreme two years ago that a big rally – even a doubling in two years – is not surprising. There was an even bigger rally after the low point of 1932. Corporate earnings have rebounded faster than anyone thought possible. Many symptoms of a bubble about to burst are lacking. Ian Harnett of Absolute Strategy points out that bubbles are normally fuelled by retail investors pouring borrowed money into the market. Nothing like this is going on. Big market tops are usually marked by mergers and acquisitions. While picking up, they are still at a quarter of the levels of 1999.
两年前悲观情绪极其严重，因此出现大规模反弹并不奇怪——即使是两年翻了一番。1932年触及低点后的反弹比现在更迅猛。目前企业盈利回升速度之快超过所有人的想像。许多泡沫即将破裂的征兆也都没有出现。绝对战略公司(Absolute Strategy)的伊恩•哈尼特(Ian Harnett)指出，泡沫通常是散户投资者借钱投入市场所推动的。而眼下毫无这种迹象。市场高耸的顶部通常伴随着并购热。目前并购虽有所增加，但仍然只是1999年水平的四分之一。

飞雪寒冰

Most critical is valuation. Long-term metrics, comparing stock prices with their earnings across the business cycle, suggest US stocks are as expensive as in 1901 and 1966, on the eve of major downturns. They are not cheap. But there is a difference between an expensive market and one primed to explode. US stocks now sell for 24 times their cyclical earnings. They were selling for almost double that in 1999.
最重要的是估值。“周期市盈率”这项长期指标表明，当前美股与1901年和1966年大跌前夕一样贵。它们并不便宜。但是，昂贵与行将爆裂是有区别的。当前美股的周期市盈率为24倍。可1999年的周期市盈率近乎是现在的两倍。

So why might Mr Icahn be worried? The prices of money, and of resources are moving. The rally of the 1980s started with base rates above 15 per cent. Rate cuts gave the stock market ever more fuel. That cannot happen this time, with rates effectively zero. Once rates start to rise, bubbles can burst.
那么伊坎在担心什么呢？资金成本和资源价格都在不断变动。上世纪80年代市场开始反弹时，基准利率高于15%。其后的降息为股Shi提供了更大火力。这次不会发生这种情形，因为利率实际上等于零。一旦利率开始上升，泡沫就可能破裂。

飞雪寒冰

Beyond rates, there are commodity prices. Over history, big upswings in resource prices have overlapped with poor performance by stocks. They are a tax on economic growth. In the past two years, even apart from the recent rise in oil prices, agricultural prices have almost doubled, and industrial metals have more than doubled.
除了利率以外，还有大宗商品价格。在历史上，资源价格的大幅上涨总是与股Shi表现不佳相重叠。资源价格上涨会拖累经济增长。在过去两年里，就算抛开近期油价的上涨不谈，农产品价格几乎翻了一番，工业金属价格更是上涨了不止一倍。

Finally, long-term rates are set by the bond market. Mr Gross is betting there will be no fresh buyers once the Federal Reserve stops buying Treasury bonds, as is to happen this summer. Therefore a rise in bond yields – which would raise the cost of finance and hurt stock markets – seems a real possibility.
最后，长期利率取决于债券市场。格罗斯认为，一旦美联储(Fed)停止购买美国国债，市场上不会出现新的买家——就像去年夏天一样。因而债券收益率的上升看起来大有可能，而这将抬高融资成本，损及股Shi。

飞雪寒冰

Mr Icahn’s letter may not be all it seemed. He is not selling the stocks in his fund, but borrowing money so that he can pay cash to investors. Other hedge fund managers point out that the effect was for Mr Icahn to gear up his personal stock holdings.
伊坎那封信或许另有隐情。他不是售出旗下基金的股票，而是借钱还给投资者。其他对冲基金经理指出，这么做会让伊坎个人的持股增加。

But the Japanese disaster unquestionably increases the risk of new financial tremors. Perversely, the initial effect is to send money home to Japan, pushing the yen up. That could damage the exporters of the world’s third-largest economy, and might also wrong-foot systemically important investors.
然而，日本地震无疑会加大爆发新金融地震的风险。荒唐的是，人们的最初反应竟然是把资金汇回日本，推高日元汇率。这既可能损害这个全球第三大经济体的出口企业，也可能让具有系统重要性的投资者乱了手脚。

飞雪寒冰

Japan’s fiscal situation was already dire. Despite initial hopes the economic damage will be relatively muted, Friday’s tragedy has raised further the risk of a market dislocation.
日本的财政形势已经极其糟糕。尽管人们最初的希望是地震不至于造成太严重的经济损失，但这次灾难已经进一步加大了发生市场混乱的风险。

沈伍刑

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