China oil analysis

飞雪寒冰

As oil prices spiral higher amid turmoil in Libya, developing countries across Asia are taking evasive action, shoring up their strategic petroleum reserves against the risk of a prolonged supply shock. Their actions could propel crude even higher.
利比亚局势动荡，推动国际油价螺旋式上升，促使亚洲发展中国家纷纷采取避险行动，通过充实各自的战略石油储备，规避本轮供应危机长期化的风险。它们的这一行动可能进一步推高油价。

The Philippines, citing events in the Middle East, announced on Wednesday that it would require oil companies in the country to maintain 15 days of reserves, and oil refineries to keep enough oil to last for 30 days.
菲律宾以中东局势为由，于周三宣布将要求本国石油企业维持15天的储备量，要求炼油企业维持足够30天使用的储备量。

飞雪寒冰

Manila’s move is the most visible sign yet of how Asian countries are seeking to improve their oil security amid what is shaping up to be the worst supply crisis since the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Other big regional oil importers are likely to follow suit.
菲律宾此举是迄今最为清晰的信号，表明亚洲各国面对供应危机正力求改善各自的石油安全形势。本轮危机将是自2003年入侵伊拉克以来最为严重的石油供应危机。亚洲其它主要石油进口国很可能会效仿菲律宾的做法。

China is the world’s second-largest oil importer after the US. India is the world’s fifth-largest, ahead of countries such as South Korea, France and the UK. But the pair lack a strategic petroleum reserve that can be tapped during a supply crisis similar in size and scope to the ones held by western countries.
中国是世界第二大石油进口国，仅次于美国。印度是第五大石油进口国，排在韩国、法国和英国等国之前。但是，西方国家都建立了庞大的战略石油储备，在供应危机时期可以动用，而中印两国都不具备这样的战略储备。

飞雪寒冰

Analysts believe the political upheaval in the Middle East and North Africa is likely to encourage both China and India to accelerate their purchases of crude for strategic reserves.
分析师认为，中东和北非的政治动荡可能会促使中国和印度加快建立战略石油储备的步伐。

If so, the extra demand could tighten further global oil markets, testing the limits of spare production capacity among members of the Opec cartel.
如果事实果真如此，由此增加的需求可能导致国际石油市场进一步吃紧，对欧佩克(Opec)成员国的闲置产能极限形成考验。

飞雪寒冰

Unlike industrialised countries, which built up their stockpiles three decades ago in the wake of the 1973 oil crisis, China only recently began its strategic reserve programme, starting to fill reserves in 2006 and completing a 102m barrel build-out in “Phase One” two years later.
30年多前，也就是1973年石油危机过后，工业化国家就建立起了战略石油储备。相比之下，中国只是近年才启动战略储备计划，2006年开始注油，两年后完成“首期”工程，建成了1.02亿桶储备。

The second phase of the programme will build a further 168m barrels of reserves by the beginning of next year.
二期工程将在明年初前完成，注油1.68亿桶。

When China finishes filling its reserve, which it is expected to do by 2020, it will hold about 500m barrels, equal to roughly three months of imports and the second-largest stockpile in the world.
中国计划到2020年完成建立战略石油储备的全部工作，总共将建成约5亿桶储备，大致相当于3个月的石油进口量，届时中国的石油储备规模将位居世界第二。

飞雪寒冰

China’s strategic stockpiling “is likely to be a feature of the global oil market not only this year but this decade”, says Soozhana Choi, oil analyst at Deutsche Bank in Singapore.
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)驻新加坡的石油分析师Soozhana Choi表示，中国建立战略石油储备的行动，“很可能将成为今年乃至十年内国际石油市场的一大特征”。

Although purchases are kept secret, analysts and oil traders believe that events in Libya and the prospect of further supply disruptions in the Middle East could boost strategic buying of crude.
虽然购买储备性石油的工作都是秘密进行的，但分析师和石油交易员认为，利比亚的局势、以及中东石油供应中断现象可能恶化的前景，或会促使中国加快购买储备石油。

飞雪寒冰

“With the expectation that prices are going to rise, they will accelerate the pace of tank-filling,” says K.F Yan, director at energy consultants CERA in Beijing.
剑桥能源咨询公司(CERA)在北京的主管严克风表示：“在价格看涨的预期之下，他们将加快向储备库注油的步伐。”

Over the past decade, China has grown more and more dependent on crude imports and currently buys more than half its oil overseas. In 2003, when the oil market experienced its previous geopolitical supply shock during the US-led invasion of Iraq, Beijing was importing about a third of its oil from overseas.
十年来，中国对进口原油的依赖度越来越高。目前，中国消费的一半以上的石油来自进口。上次国际石油市场遭遇地缘政治供应危机是在2003年，时值以美国为首的国家入侵伊拉克，当时中国消费的石油有三分之一左右来自进口。

飞雪寒冰

Yingxi Yu, commodities analyst at Barclays Capital, predicts that the situation in the Middle East “will also add to some nervousness from countries with lower levels of strategic reserves. But having said that, [reserves are] not something that you can increase overnight. It’s not something that you can rush”.
巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)大宗商品分析师Yingxi Yu预计，中东局势“还将让战略储备规模较小的国家更加不安，不过，话虽如此，（储备）并非一夜之间就能增加的，着急也没用”。

India is some way behind China. The country is targeting a reserve of about 40m barrels, equal to little more than two weeks of imports, by the end of 2012.
印度在这方面略微落后于中国。该国计划到2012年底前建立4000万桶左右的储备，相当于两周进口量。

飞雪寒冰

So far, it has only filled depots holding 9.8m barrels of crude. If India were to create a reserve similar in size as a share of oil imports to those of China, the US, Japan or Europe, it would need at least 200m-250m barrels of oil.
截止目前，印度才向储备库注入了980万桶原油。假设印度要把储备规模与石油进口量之比提高到与中国、美国、日本或欧洲相当的水平，它至少需要2亿至2.5亿桶储备石油。

The high cost of oil, trading on Wednesday at $117 a barrel, is likely to slow down India’s plans, analysts say. That same thinking may yet apply to China.
分析师称，高油价（周三油价报每桶117美元）可能会促使印度放慢建立储备计划。这一见解大概也适用于中国。

飞雪寒冰

“We are not willing to import too much at high prices. We want to buy when the price falls,” says Wang Jun, a scholar at the Chinese government-linked think tank CCIEE.
与中国政府有关联的智库——中国国际经济交流中心(CCIEE)的学者王军表示：“我们可不愿意在油价高企时大量进口。我们希望在价格下跌时购买。”

But Mr Wang acknowledged, in a recent monograph, that China’s vulnerability to oil supply shocks is exacerbated by the lack of a complete strategic reserve: “Chinese dependence on imported oil for the purpose of ensuring normal economic and social functioning has become the speculation capital of international oil traders.”
但王军在近期出版的一本专著中承认，缺乏完整的战略储备使得中国更容易受到石油供应危机的冲击。“中国依赖进口石油来确保经济和社会正常运行，这已成为国际石油交易员的炒作素材。”