为何中国楼市不会崩盘

飞雪寒冰

Chinese people welcomed in the year of the rabbit this year visiting family, playing mah-jong, betting on the horses (among other things) and inspecting the latest flats for sale.
中国人用各种方式迎接兔年的到来：走亲访友、打麻将、赌马（和其它形式的博彩），以及看新楼盘。

Buying property has become a national passion in China. Last week, Beijing announced further measures in its ongoing campaign to cool both demand for property and real estate prices. It raised interest rates in an effort to induce people to keep money in the banks. It adjusted the way the property price index is calculated in much the same way it earlier adjusted the consumer price index to minimise the impact of rising food prices on inflation. It told foreigners that unless they had paid taxes for a number of years in a given city, they would be unable to buy property.
在中国，买房已经成为一种“全民爱好”。上周，中国政府出台了更多抑制房地产需求和价格的举措，它们包括：加息，以诱使人们把钱存在银行；调整房地产价格指数的计算方式，就好像前些时候调整居民消费价格指数、把食品价格上涨对通胀的影响降到最小一样；规定外国人在一个城市缴税满一定年限后，才能在当地买房。

飞雪寒冰

In spite of these efforts, though, the betting on the mainland is that the game will continue. Virtually nobody in China thinks there is any chance of a crash in the property market, for a mix of fundamental and self-interested reasons. For one thing, there is a lot of vested interests in the government itself that have a stake in rising prices. Most local government revenue comes from land sales. If land prices fall, governments take in less money. So while Beijing announces the latest edicts in a loud voice, local governments undermine that policy in whispers.
然而，尽管出台了这些举措，中国人依然相信游戏会继续下去。几乎没有中国人认为房地产市场有丝毫崩盘的可能，其中有经济基本面的原因，也有既得利益的原因。首先，政府本身就是房价上涨的既得利益者。地方政府的收入大多来自卖地。假如地价下跌，政府的收入就会减少。因此，在北京高声宣布新政之时，地方政府却在咕哝着破坏这些政策。

The bankers, too, prefer to ignore Beijing’s wishes. The banks are run by bureaucrats who are all party members and serve at the behest of the regulators. But beneath the senior echelons of the banks are staffers who wish to expand their loan books and circumvent restrictions on loan growth.
各家银行也倾向于无视中央政府的愿望。中国的银行是由政府官员管理的，他们全是党员，听从监管层的号令。然而，在高级管理层之下，普通的银行职员则希望扩大放贷规模，绕开对贷款增长的限制。

飞雪寒冰

Evasive measures were successful last year, when loan growth exceeded official targets by a wide margin. This year the voices from Beijing have become more insistent so mainland bankers are referring clients to their Hong Kong offices for arrangements to get around inconvenient limitations on the mainland and keep the money flowing.
他们去年成功规避了中央政府的指令，贷款增幅远远超出了政府设定的目标。今年，来自中央政府的指令变得更加强硬。于是，内地银行纷纷把客户介绍到其香港办公室，安排他们绕开内地的限制措施，保持资金的流动。

There are other factors as well. Interest rates remain deeply negative in real terms. Everyone in China is looking for alternatives between the gambling tables of Macau and receiving half a percentage point of interest on deposits from their (unfriendly) local bank.
此外，还有一些其他因素。中国内地的实际利率仍然深陷负值区域。在中国，除了把钱拿去澳门赌博，和把钱存在（颇不友好的）本地银行赚取0.5个百分点的利息，每个人都在寻找其他选择。

飞雪寒冰

Today, these people can put their money out through private channels for more generous returns. For the first time there is a class of wealthy entrepreneurs with enough scale that they have become a significant source of funding, particularly for property. Developers in China cannot get loans to actually acquire land. They can only borrow after they have secured the land. That does not matter much for the larger developers that are listed and cash rich, but it does give rise to an irritating sequence problem for those developers that are not. The problem is solved by introducing developers to well-heeled entrepreneurs who are the clients of the wealth-management arms of the banks.
现在，他们可以通过一些私人渠道，获得更高丰厚的回报。有史以来第一次，中国出现了一个财力雄厚的富裕企业家阶层，他们已经成为一个重要的融资来源，尤其是对于房地产行业。中国房地产开发商不能贷款买地。他们只有拿到地以后才能贷款。这对资金充沛的大型房地产上市企业来说关系不大，但对其他开发商来说，却是个恼人的问题。不过这个问题也能解决——只需把开发商引荐给富裕的企业家们，而后者都是银行财富管理部门的客户。

Developers often sell shares of the unit that is responsible for a given property project to entrepreneurs via these bank networks, paying them between 10 per cent and 13 per cent a year for the money. In other cases, entrepreneurs themselves form underground banks in search of lucrative projects.
开发商常常把负责某个房地产项目的下属单位的股权通过这些银行网络出售给企业家，每年向他们支付10%至13%的利息。此外，企业家们自己也会组成地下银行，物色有利可图的项目。

飞雪寒冰

Of course, the self-interest of developers and banks does not mean there will not be a crash, just that people want to make money from property. More important from a fundamental viewpoint is the fact that the Chinese market lacks the classic symptoms of a bubble today. One of the reasons why the US and Japanese housing booms were so fragile was the extent to which those booms were financed with borrowed money. If leverage is one of the key worrying signs, there is not much of it in China right now, either at the level of builder or buyer
当然，开发商和银行的利己做法并不意味着中国房地产市场不会崩盘，而只能说明：人们希望从房地产市场捞钱。从基本面来看，更为重要的是，中国市场没有当今泡沫的典型症状。美国和日本的房地产繁荣如此不堪一击的一个原因就是，支持这些市场繁荣的是借来的资金。如果说杠杆率是令人担忧的关键迹象之一，那么无论是在建筑商还是买房者的层面上，中国目前的杠杆率都不高。

Also, in contrast again to the US and Japan, incomes in China are rising. Indeed, analysts say that, at least in China’s second-tier cities such as Chengdu or Dalian or Xian, incomes are rising at a faster pace than housing prices.
中国居民收入的节节攀升，也与美国和日本的情况形成了对比。事实上，分析师表示，至少在中国二线城市，如成都、大连和西安，居民收入的增长速度高于房价的增速。

Moreover, many developers are producing affordable middle class housing and not just luxury flats and shopping malls. The prosperity is spreading with the infrastructure, from the outskirts of Beijing to the outskirts of the whole country.
此外，许多开发商正在建设中产阶层买得起的住房，而不仅仅是豪华公寓和购物中心。财富正随着基础设施一道，从北京郊区扩展到整个国家的边远地区。

飞雪寒冰

True, official statistics suggest fixed-asset investment accounts for 70 per cent of economic activity and much of that comes from property investment. That suggests the supply of everything China builds will one day vastly exceed demand. But, as with many statistics, numerous analysts dismiss this fear. For example, they point out when an American buys a car, the purchase counts as consumption, but when a Chinese household does so, it counts as investment.
的确，官方统计数据显示，固定资产投资占到经济活动的70%，而且有很大一部分来自房地产投资。这意味着中国房地产市场的供给终有一天会明显超过需求。然而，与许多统计数据一样，众多分析师都对这种担忧不以为然。例如他们指出，在美国，购买汽车被统计为消费，而在中国，家庭购车，却被统计为一种投资。

Next year is the year of the dragon, a particularly auspicious year in China. Property owners, if not potential buyers, are betting they will be even more prosperous when that time comes.
明年是中国的龙年，是一个极其吉祥的年份。就算潜在的购房者不这么想，房地产业主们也坚信当龙年到来时，他们将更加富足。