Focus to be on emerging market currency revaluation

飞雪寒冰

Inflation is so far away from the economic priorities of developed countries that it has been easy to underestimate the growing price worries of emerging economies. But a sharp sell-off in emerging market equities – triggered by last week’s Chinese inflation data – is a reminder that prices need watching – and in some countries require urgent policy action.
发达国家在很长时间内都不会将通胀列为经济要务，因此他们很容易就会低估新兴经济体日益增长的价格担忧。但中国上周的通胀数据引发的新兴市场股票暴跌，提醒我们有必要关注价格，有些国家还亟需采取政策行动。

The 4.4 per cent year-on-year increase in consumer prices announced by Beijing is the highest for two years and exceeds the authorities’ 3 per cent comfort level.
中国政府公布，消费价格指数(CPI)同比上涨4.4%，创下两年来的新高，超过了政府3%的舒适水平。

飞雪寒冰

In the other Bric countries inflation is even higher – 8.6 per cent in India, 7.5 per cent in Russia and 5.2 per cent in Brazil. Elsewhere, it is 10 per cent in Ukraine and 25 per cent in Venezuela.
其它金砖(Bric)国家的通胀率甚至更高——印度为8.6%，俄罗斯7.5%，巴西5.2%。其它新兴国家中，乌克兰为10%，委内瑞拉为25%。

As often with inflation, it is the poor, spending a big proportion of their income on food, who feel the most pain. Food inflation is 10.1 per cent in China, 15.7 per cent in India and 16.1 per cent in Turkey. These are numbers that politicians ignore at their peril.
就像在通常情况下一样，受通胀影响最为严重的是将收入的很大一部分用于购买食品的穷人。中国的食品通胀率为10.1%，印度为15.7%，土耳其为16.1%。如果政客们忽视这些数字，他们就要自担风险。

飞雪寒冰

A big contribution to inflation, particularly for food, comes from the commodity price boom. While this has been aggravated by speculative investments, the driver is a global resources hunger that can be addressed only by expanding production.
通胀——尤其是食品通胀——的一个主要致因是大宗商品价格的攀升。尽管投机性投资起到了推波助澜的作用，但主要推动因素还是全球资源的短缺，而这只能通过扩大生产加以解决。

Unfortunately, potential investors in agriculture will not be encouraged by growing protectionist pressures, which make early farm trade liberalisation unlikely.
不幸的是，日益加大的贸易保护主义压力，会抑制农业领域潜在投资者的热情，因为这种压力会使得及早实现农产品贸易自由化的梦想化为泡影。

飞雪寒冰

But there are other actions emerging market policymakers can take to counter inflation.
但新兴市场的政策制定者还可以采取其他行动来抗击通胀。

First, they can stick tightly to the prudent fiscal policies that most are following. And those that have allowed budget discipline to slip should continue making cuts: Malaysia for example, where the fiscal deficit this year is 5.6 per cent of GDP.
首先，他们可以严格遵循大多数国家正在奉行的审慎财政政策。那些曾放任预算纪律日渐松弛的国家应该继续削减支出：比如马来西亚，该国今年的财政赤字已达到国内生产总值(GDP)的5.6%。

飞雪寒冰

Next, credit growth needs to be controlled but not so tightly as to choke growth. This is China’s dilemma. Having boosted the economy in the 2008-09 crisis through a huge increase in loans, it is now struggling to pull in the reins.
其次，信贷增长需要控制，但不能控制得太紧，以防阻碍增长。这正是中国的困境。在2008-09年危机期间，中国通过大规模增加放贷提振了经济，但现在却难以收住缰绳。

Fears it might follow its recent interest rate increase with another rise largely prompted Friday’s market sell-off. The monetary challenge is exacerbated by the cheap money generated to boost flagging developed economies, not least Washington’s latest round of quantitative easing, to the tune of $600bn. Warnings of emerging market bubbles are multiplying, including one last week from Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel laureate economist.
对于中国央行在近期加息后可能再次加息的担忧，是上周五市场下跌的主要原因。为提振低迷的发达经济体而生成的廉价资金，尤其是华盛顿总额达到6000亿美元的最新一轮定量宽松措施，更是加剧了这一货币挑战。有关新兴市场泡沫的警告正在成倍增加——诺贝尔经济学奖获得者约瑟夫•斯蒂格利茨(Joseph Stiglitz)上周就曾发出警告。

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Brazil, Thailand, and Taiwan are among countries that are trying to staunch the potentially inflationary inflows through capital controls. Other nations, headed by China and India, have been slower to liberalise their external accounts and can rely on decades-old barriers. Even the International Monetary Fund now reluctantly accepts that capital controls are a necessary weapon in the policy armoury. But, as Mr Stiglitz pointed out, that leaves attractive open economies as the “focal point for all this [QE] money”.
巴西、泰国和台湾等经济体正试图通过资本管制，抑制可能引发通胀的资本流入。以中国和印度为首的其它国家，在开放外部账户上一直速度比较缓慢，所以可以依赖由来已久的壁垒。甚至连国际货币基金组织(IMF)也开始不情愿地承认，资本管制是政策武器库中不可或缺的武器。但正如斯蒂格利茨所指出的，这会导致有吸引力的开放经济体成为“所有这些（定量宽松）资金的聚集地”。

Governments are raising rates to reduce the infla-tionary pressures but do so unwillingly for fear of ham- pering economic growth and making things worse by attracting more hot money. Yield, after all, is what global investors seek.
各国政府正在通过加息来缓和通胀压力，但他们并非心甘情愿，因为他们担心此举会吸引更多热钱，从而阻碍经济增长，使局面变得更糟。毕竟，全球投资者追逐的正是收益率。

飞雪寒冰

One answer lies in quicker currency appreciation. In the short term, countries do not want their currencies to rise for fear of damaging exports. That is the nub of the US-China currency dispute. But in the long term, emerging market currencies must rise to reflect these countries’ rising productivity – just as happened with Germany and Japan after 1950. Even in the short term, the loss in export competitiveness is offset by access to cheaper imports – including, significantly, food- and other dollar-priced commodities. The currency appreciation record is decidedly mixed. While China has allowed the renminbi to rise against the dollar since it loosened its peg on June 21 – by 2.8 per cent – the renminbi’s real trade-weighted value has actually dropped – by 3.7 per cent. Compared with January 2008, the renminbi was only 3.9 per cent higher late last week on a trade-weighted basis, far behind Brazil (up 17.3 per cent) and Indonesia (18.5 per cent). Other key emerging market currencies were well down – Turkey by 5.5 per cent, India by 6.8 per cent and South Korea by a startling 15.9 per cent.
一个解决方法是加速货币升值。短期内，各国因担心损害出口而不想让自己的货币升值。这正是中美汇率摩擦的症结所在。但长期而言，新兴市场的货币必须升值，以反应这些国家日益上升的生产率水平——就像1950年后的德国与日本一样。即使是在短期内，出口竞争力的损失也会因进口成本（特别是食品和其他亿美元计价的大宗商品）的下降而得到弥补。各国的货币升值记录可谓错综复杂。尽管自6月21日放松盯住美元的汇率制度以来，中国已允许人民币对美元升值2.8%，但人民币的实际贸易加权汇率事实上却下跌了3.7%。较之2008年1月，到上周末为止，人民币的贸易加权汇率仅上涨了3.9%，远远低于巴西（17.3%）和印尼（18.5%）。其它关键新兴市场的货币则出现了大幅下跌——土耳其5.5%，印度6.8%，韩国则达到惊人的15.9%。

飞雪寒冰

In these difficult times, there are no risk- or cost-free choices. But with inflation rising, the pressures will grow for quicker emerging market currency revaluation.
在眼下的困难时刻，任何选择都有风险或成本。但随着通胀上升，新兴市场货币加速升值的压力也会加大。