Germany lifts growth forecast to 3%

飞雪寒冰

Germany’s economy will grow by 3 per cent this year, according to a sharply upwardly revised Bundesbank forecast issued as investors pushed the cost of borrowing by its government towards fresh record lows.
根据德国央行(Bundesbank)大幅向上修正的预测，德国经济今年将增长3%，投资者将政府借款成本推向新的创纪录低位。

The economic recovery in Europe’s largest economy was increasingly generating its own momentum, the country’s central bank said yesterday, with other eurozone countries benefiting from the ripple effects. In June, the Bundesbank had forecast almost 2 per cent growth in 2010.
德国央行昨日表示，这个欧洲最大经济体的经济复苏正日益形成自身的势头，而其它欧元区国家将受益于涟漪效应。今年6月，德国央行对今年德国经济的预测为近2%。

飞雪寒冰

The upbeat prognosis underscored policymakers’ confidence that the eurozone would avoid falling back into recession.
这一乐观预测突显了决策者的信心：欧元区将不会再度陷入衰退。

However, Germany is seen increasingly as an isolated success story within the eurozone, with its “safe haven” status boosted by a re-intensification of worries about Ireland and southern European countries worst hit by this year’s crisis over public finances.
然而，德国越来越被视为欧元区内孤立的成功案例，市场对受今年危机影响最为严重的爱尔兰和南欧国家的公共财政担忧加剧，这提高了德国作为“安全避难所”的地位。

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German 10-year bund yields, which have an inverse relationship with prices, were trading at 2.35 per cent yesterday – around record lows – compared with 3.35 per cent at the start of the year.
德国10年期债券收益率（与价格走势相反）昨日为2.35%，位于创纪录低位附近，而今年年初为3.35%。

Alan Wilde, head of fixed income and currency at Baring Asset Management, said: “This is good news for Germany. The country is seeing growth pick up while at the same time the interest rate costs for the country are very low. They can borrow without much cost. For the eurozone, it is not so good.” Steven Major, head of fixed income research at HSBC, added: “The eurozone is not out of the crisis – and that is what the markets are telling us. We do not think the single currency will break up but there are still risks.”
霸菱资产管理公司(Baring Asset Management)固定收益和货币主管艾伦•王尔德(Alan Wilde)表示：“这对于德国来说是个好消息。该国增速正在加快，同时利率成本处于非常低的水平。他们的借款成本不是很高。而对于欧元区而言，这不是太好。”汇丰(HSBC)固定收益研究主管史蒂文•梅杰(Steven Major)补充称：“欧元区并未脱离危机，这是市场正在告诉我们的。我们认为，单一货币不会崩溃，但仍存在风险。”

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