Oil consumption rules upended as east transforms the market

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Emerging economies have upended the long-standing pattern of global oil consumption, according to the west’s energy watchdog, in a further sign of how countries such as China and India are transforming commodities markets.
据西方能源监管机构称，新兴经济体已令存在已久的全球石油消费模式颠倒过来。此种迹象进一步显示出，中国和印度等国家正以何种方式改变大宗商品市场。

The International Energy Agency estimates oil demand was higher this year during the second quarter for the first time, at about 86.6m barrels a day, ahead of the traditional peak winter season of January-March, at 86.0m b/d.
国际能源机构(IEA)估计，今年第二季度期间石油需求首次上升，达到每天8660万桶左右，高于冬季1月至3月传统旺季时的每天8600万桶。

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The traditional seasonal pattern had usually pushed up oil prices during the northern hemisphere winter, before warmer temperatures cut consumption.
传统的季节模式通常在北半球冬季期间推高油价，之后气温升高令消费减少。

But with growth for oil increasingly coming from countries such as China, India, Saudi Arabia, Brazil and Indonesia, seasonal patterns are changing, a trend the Paris-based IEA believes will accelerate.
但随着石油需求的增长日益来自中国、印度、沙特、巴西和印尼这样的国家，季节模式正处在改变当中。总部位于巴黎的IEA认为，这种趋势将加速。

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“This unusual pattern reflects the world’s new oil demand dynamics,” the IEA said. “This emerging seasonality will likely raise new refining and logistical challenges.”
“这种不寻常的模式反映了世界石油需求的新动态，”IEA表示。“新出现的季节性很可能会构成新的炼油和物流挑战。”

In the past, oil demand fell 1.5-2.0m b/d between the first and second quarters, allowing refineries to undergo maintenance. Low demand periods helped to build inventories to meet peak consumption later.
过去，石油需求会在一、二季度之间下降每天1500万至每天2000万桶，让炼油厂可以进行维护。低需求期有助于积累库存，以满足之后的高峰用量。

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By contrast, economic activity in many developing countries tends to slow in the first quarter after the New Year’s celebrations – most notably in China, where the Lunar Year occurs in January-February – before rebounding, according to the IEA. As a result, oil consumption is lower in the first quarter and rises sharply in the second. The trend is markedly different from most rich countries, where the winter months of January and February see peak demand.


据IEA表示，相比之下，许多发展中国家的经济活动往往在新年庆典过后的一季度放缓——中国最为明显，其农历新年是在1月或2月——之后出现反弹。结果，石油消费在一季度下降，在二季度急剧上升。这种趋势与多数富国的情况显著不同，他们1月和2月的冬季月份是需求高峰。

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“Given that non-OECD demand is now driving global growth, it is also starting to alter the world’s oil demand seasonality, which until now followed the mould of OECD demand,” the agency said in its monthly report.
“鉴于非经合组织需求现在正驱动全球增长，它也开始改变世界石油需求的季节性，而这种季节性迄今为止遵循的是经合组织(OECD)的需求模式，”IEA在其月度报告中表示。