STANDING COMMITTEE AT THE SUMMIT OF POWER

飞雪寒冰

On the face of it, China's next leadership succession was settled at a Communist Party congress in 2007. The party's senior members decided that in 2012-13, Xi Jinping would take over the roles as head of the party and president currently held by Hu Jintao, while Li Keqiang would become the next premier.

Although there have been some questions about the process since then – Mr Xi did not win an expected promotion last autumn to the commission that runs the military – most analysts believe the succession is still on track.

飞雪寒冰

Yet even so, there is still a lot to play for. With little transparency or established procedures, these sorts of high-level decisions are never completely settled until the very last minute. More to the point, the succession is about much more than just the top two jobs. (In the CCP's hierarchy, Premier Wen Jiabao is actually number three.)

Since Mao Zedong's death in 1976, the party has tried to move away from having a dominant figure; key decisions are now taken by a collective leadership. President Hu is believed to enjoy certain powers of veto and the ability to call or cancel meetings. But analysts say the decision, for instance, to appreciate the currency or to launch a major stimulus package would be taken by the party's nine-member Standing Committee. Thus, being a member of the Standing Committee is a much more influential position than being in the US Cabinet.

飞雪寒冰

In the 2012-13 transition, between five and seven committee members are expected to retire, meaning that a large number of important jobs are up for grabs. It is one of these roles that analysts believe Bo Xilai is positioning himself for.

Some observers believe that the succession race is already being felt in Chinese political life. It could be one of the reasons for Beijing's recently more assertive diplomatic stance or, with politicians afraid of being seen to be soft, for harsh sentences given to dissidents.

“Succession could be one reason for why things seem to have tightened up so much in recent months,” says Mr Shambaugh. “When there is uncertainty, there also tends to be risk aversion and conservatism.”