CHINA EXPORT GROWTH BEATS ESTIMATES

飞雪寒冰

Chinese exports rose 45.7 per cent in February from the same month a year earlier, beating forecasts and providing fresh evidence of a robust recovery in an economy poised to overtake Japan this year as the world's second-largest.

The jump in exports compared with a 21 per cent rise in January and was accompanied by an import surge of 44.7 per cent from a year earlier, data released on Wednesday showed.

Analysts had expected a strong year-on-year increase because China registered its biggest fall in exports during the financial crisis in February 2009. However, the figures were even better than forecast.

“The strong trade figures are partly due to a low base in February last year but it is clear that exports are recovering strongly and this trend is likely to continue,” said Zhu Jianfang, chief economist at Citic Securities in Beijing. “Rising imports show domestic demand is also very strong.”

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“The export number points to solid underlying improvement in external demand ... which should make policymakers in Beijing more comfortable with the idea of allowing currency appreciation to help deal with building price pressures,” according to Brian Jackson, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets.

Despite the strong trade performance, Zhu Guangyao, China's assistant minister of finance, on Wednesday warned about an unpredictable global economic situation. He said China needed to wait until at least the third quarter to decide whether to withdraw its stimulus policies.

According to a senior bank regulator quoted by Chinese media, new bank lending in February was close to Rmb700bn ($102.5bn), a significant drop from Rmb1,390bn in January.

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The moderation in lending will please the government, which has introduced a series of tough measures to curb rampant loan growth because of fears it is driving asset bubbles, indiscriminate lending and the potential for rising inflation.

On a monthly basis, exports and imports fell around 10 per cent in February from January. But after adjusting for the long Chinese New Year holiday last month, exports fell 2.2 per cent while imports rose 6.3 per cent, according to Chinese customs figures.

After adjusting for the holiday, exports rose 59.1 per cent in February from a year earlier while imports rose 74.7 per cent. The country's trade surplus last month was $7.6bn, just over half of the $14.2bn surplus recorded in January.