中国送给美国的厚礼？

飞雪寒冰

作者：英国《金融时报》马利德(Richard McGregor)北京报道
2008年4月1日 星期二
  
  
美国财长汉克•保尔森(Hank Paulson)周三上午抵达北京时，可能将收到其东道主所认为的一份厚礼——不断走强的人民币汇率即将达到一个新的关键高点。

人民币汇率上周五报收7.017元人民币兑1美元，大有突破7元大关的势头——这是继去年10月下旬人民币加速升值之后一个具有象征意义的时刻。

在华盛顿，人民币汇率已成为了测试中国对美国贸易申诉回应态度的“试纸”。在多年来美国政府施加压力之后，中国政府希望保尔森公开对人民币升值表示认可。


但分析人士称，华盛顿以双边角度看待这一问题，不仅使人民币不断升值的原因有所扭曲，并且夸大了人民币币值的真正变化。安信证券(Essence Securities)驻北京的经济学家高善文表示：“来自美国的压力只是一个较小的因素。很大的原因在于中国国内的通胀压力。”

在食品价格连续数月大幅上涨之后，中国通胀率在2月份创下8.7%的12年月度高点，因此对中国政府而言，人民币汇率作为一项政策工具已经走向了舞台中央。

长期以来，中国政府高层一直在人民币加速升值的必要性方面存在分歧，经济规划部门的反对和出口部门的游说，足以使人民币保持缓慢的升值步伐。

中国国内的经济学家表示，中国总理温**一直无力将该问题拖出其长期以来陷入的官僚泥沼，他反而倾向于等待，直到各方在该问题上达成共识。

尽管人民币汇率在美国政府的议程上排在首位，但从某些方面来看，对于将最主要注意力集中在维持快速经济增长的中国政府来说，人民币汇率仍然是一个次要问题。对中国政府而言，快速增长的经济反而有助于解决一系列的难题——贫富差距及医疗、教育与社保系统的资金不足。新书《中国走向未来》(China Into the Future)的作者之一、咨询师迈克尔•恩赖特(Michael Enright)称：“没有经济增长，其它一切都会的确成为问题。”

但目前通胀的幽灵已刺激中国政府在汇率方面采取行动。自2005年中取消人民币盯住美元的做法以来，人民币汇率在30个月内上涨约14%，然后在2008年的头几个月，人民币兑美元汇率已以年率约15%至20%的速度加速升值。

人民币汇率走高，有助于降低大豆等进口商品的成本。在中国，80%的大豆用于饲养生猪。中国通胀的主要驱动因素是食品价格上涨，尤其是主要食用肉猪肉的涨价。人民币升值还有助于抑制膨胀的贸易顺差，而对于中国与其它大型贸易伙伴的关系来说，这也一直是一个政治问题。

决策者允许人民币升值的动力可能是短期的，因为有迹象显示，中国的总体通胀率可能从年中起开始下降，而贸易顺差也正在见顶。

中国最大的投行中金公司(CICC)的哈继铭表示，随着通胀和贸易顺差的缓和 ，“我预计人民币升值步伐将在今年下半年放缓”。

不过，尽管保尔森可能会对中国提高人民币兑美元汇率赞许有加，但中国的其它贸易伙伴就没什么值得高兴的原因了。作为中国目前最大的贸易伙伴，欧洲对于双边贸易逆差的规模越来越担忧。今年迄今为止，欧元兑人民币汇率已升值逾3%。在截至上周末的2008年，日元兑人民币汇率上涨逾7%。

其结果是，今年人民币兑中国主要贸易伙伴货币的有效汇率完全没有变动。人民币有效汇率是国际货币基金组织(IMF)推崇的基准。

这种结果正加剧欧洲及其它地区的怀疑：即人民币仍在跟踪美元汇率。但只要人民币兑美元汇率持续升值，保尔森就可能认为，这只是欧盟和日本政府的问题。

飞雪寒冰

Hank
Paulson, the US Treasury secretary, may receive what his hosts consider a nice gift when he arrives in Beijing early on Wednesday – a strengthening Chinese currency poised to reach a significant new high.

The renminbi closed trading in China on Friday at Rmb7.017 to the dollar, on the verge of breaking through Rmb7.00, a symbolic moment following a period of accelerated appreciation since late October.

After years of arm twisting by Washington, where the currency has become a litmus test of Chinese responsiveness to US complaints on trade, Beijing expects Mr Paulson to acknowledge publicly the renminbi's gains.

But the bilateral prism through which Washington sees the issue gives a distorted picture of the reasons for the renminbi's strengthening, say analysts, and also exaggerates the real changes in the currency's value. “A small factor is the pressure from the US. A big factor is inflationary pressure in China,” said Gao Shanwen, an economist with Essence Securities in Beijing.

With inflation hitting a 12-year monthly high of 8.7 per cent in February, after several months of sharply higher food price rises, the currency has moved to centre stage as a policy instrument for Beijing.

The top ranks of the government have long been split on the need for the currency to rise more quickly, with objections from the economic planning ministry and the export lobby enough to keep the pace slow.

Wen Jiabao, the premier, has been ineffective in wresting the issue out of the bureaucratic morass it has long been caught in, preferring instead to wait until a consensus was forged on the issue, say local economists.

But while at the top of the US agenda, the currency has in some respects remained a second order issue for a Chinese government focused above all on maintaining fast economic growth. For Beijing, a fast-growing economy helps in turn address a range of difficult issues – the rich-poor gap and the underfunded health, education and welfare systems. “Without economic growth, everything else becomes really problematic,” Michael Enright, a consultant, and co-author of a new book, China Into the Future, said.

But the spectre of inflation has now galvanised the government on the currency. After rising by about 14 per cent over 30 months since mid-2005, when the US dollar peg was dropped, the renminbi has accelerated at an annualised pace of about 15-20 per cent against the US currency in the opening months of 2008.

A stronger Chinese currency helps reduce the cost of importing products such as soybeans, 80 per cent of which are used in pig feed. Chinese inflation has primarily been driven by higher food prices, especially of pork, the staple meat. The currency also remains helpful in taking the steam out of the swollen trade surplus, which has been a political problem in relations with big trading partners.

Incentives for policymakers to allow the currency to appreciate could be short-term, amid signs that headline inflation could fall from mid-year and that the trade surplus is peaking.

“I expect the pace of appreciation to slow in the second half of the year,” said Ha Jiming, of China International Capital, the country's largest investment bank, as inflation and the surplus eased.

But while Mr Paulson may give China credit for lifting the renminbi against the dollar, China's other trading partners have less reason to applaud. Europe, now China's largest trading partner and increasingly anxious about the size of the bilateral deficit, has seen the euro appreciate by more than 3 per cent this year against the Chinese unit. The Japanese yen, in turn, had strengthened by more than 7 per cent in 2008 by the end of last week.

As a result, the renminbi's effective exchange rate, the yardstick advocated by bodies such as the IMF, has not moved at all this year against its leading trading partners.

Such outcomes are hardening suspicions in Europe and elsewhere that the renminbi is still tracking the dollar. As long as the currency is rising against the greenback, however, Mr Paulson might consider that to be Brussels' and Tokyo's problem

伊红

斑竹，这转载怕不怕版权啊？:P

飞雪寒冰

:L 嗯，谢谢提醒~版权是个问题~
换个方式好了！