Buzan on Iraq

xiaocisan

Iraq

A secure Iraq, from the point of view of Iraqis, is going to be exceedingly difficult to achieve.
Iraq is not a natural country, in the sense that it does not have a long history and has been in the sight of various empires which have come and gone. Its boundaries are left over from colonial border drawings, which do not make much reference to the local geography and people.

That means Iraq contains a diversity of peoples divided by ethnicity and religion. The natural tendency of this country is to fall to pieces: it has only been held together by external powers or dictatorial regimes so far, and it has never known anything else.

It is not at all clear how such a country would be democratised internally. If there is a war, there is a danger that Iraqi society could disintegrate and the western powers would find themselves in the middle of a civil war.

In terms of Iraq’s position in its region, it is in the middle of many disputes. Iraq has been at war with at least two of its neighbours, Iran and Kuwait, and has hostile relationships with Syria, Saudi Arabia and, of course, Israel.

The Middle East is a place in which it is very difficult to distinguish between enemies and friends: one person’s enemy in one fight is their friend in another. An example of this is Iran and Iraq being uneasy neighbours, but both against Israel. Moreover, the possibility of making this region secure, particularly as the Israeli-Palestinian issue remains unresolved, is negligible.

I have been surprised, though, at how forgiving Iran seems to be towards Iraq. That is not to say that they are not suspicious of it, but much greater hostility is reserved for Israel.

Iran and Iraq still have an edgy relationship, and will probably continue to, partly because Iran maintains her interests with her co-religionists, the oppressed Shia majority, who are mostly in the south of Iraq.

The countries have both harboured dissident groups with interests in overthrowing the other’s regime. They have had many border skirmishes and a war, so there is no love lost between them and they lie on a very traditional faultline between the Persian and Arab worlds.

The main thing they share is that the US does not like either of them and has imposed, over the last decade, a policy of dual containment which has given them a common cause. It is of some significance that Saddam was able to get the remnants of his air force in the 1991 Gulf war out through Iran.

This situation makes it very difficult for the US to play any balance of power politics in the region. The Iranians will, on the one hand, be happy to see Saddam go - but they would be upset to see the US military parked along the border

阿紫飘飘

我就这样的默默的看着，好像世界沉默一次就将沉默第二次

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这么强,,支持楼主，佩服

阅微草堂

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