China Sept. Exports Fall 15.2%

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China's September exports fell 15.2 percent year-on-year to US$115.9 billion, while imports for the period were down 3.5 percent at US$103 billion, the General Administration of Customs said on Oct. 14.

Exports fell 23.4 percent in August compared with one year earlier.

Month-on-month, exports rose 15.2 percent and imports grew 17 percent, the customs bureau said.

Seasonally-adjusted exports in September declined 20.1 percent year-on-year but rose 6.3 percent month-on-month. Imports fell 11.4 percent year-on-year but grew 8.3 percent from August, according to the adjusted figures.

The September figures indicate the impact of the financial crisis is fading away, Song Hong, a trade expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told Caijing on Oct. 14. Companies stepped up commodities purchasing as prices declined, boosting imports, he said.

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Iron ore imports in the first nine months rose 35.7 percent year-on-year to 469.36 million tons, with the average import price at US$77.7 per ton, down 45.5 percent from a year earlier.

Crude oil imports in the first nine months stood at 150 million tons, up 8.2 percent year-on-year, with the average price down 48.6 percent from a year earlier at US$401.1 per ton.

The export recovery is being propelled by the need for developing countries to restock depleted inventories, as well as Christmas orders, Long Guoqiang, an economist at the Development Research Center of the State Council, told Caijing on Oct. 14.

The restocking cycle is likely to run into the fourth quarter, while Christmas orders generally peak in August and September, Long said.

China's monthly exports will remain about US$110 billion in the last three months of this year, he said, adding that exports may see positive year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter as they will be coming off a low base in 2008.

A Caijing survey of economists from 13 institutions forecast that September exports would fall 20.5 percent year-on-year and imports for the period would drop 13.4 percent.

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Separately, China International Capital Corp., projected September exports would fall by 16 percent from last year's figure.

Exports are recovering, however, Shen Jianguang, an economist at CICC, told Caijing on Oct. 13, citing information from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, which said the cost of outbound container shipping soared in September.

CICC said in an Oct. 12 report that China's exports for 2010 are expected to grow 10 percent year-on-year.

In the first nine months, exports fell 21.3 percent year-on-year to US$846.6 billion, while imports dropped 20.4 percent to US$711.1 billion.

The European Union was China's biggest trade partner in the first three quarters, with bilateral trade of US$260 billion, down 19.4 percent year-on-year.

The United States ranked second, with bilateral trade at US$211.9 billion, down 15.8 percent year-on-year, and Japan was third, with a trade figure of US$162.2 billion, down 20 percent on last year.

The trade surplus for September was US$12.9 billion, Customs did not provide comparative figures.  

CASS' Song told Caijing that about half of China's imports are linked to the processing trade, and the rise in inbound shipments reflects a pick-up in related industries rather than a rise in domestic demand.

"The trade surplus is still big," the State Council's Long said. "It's impossible to see domestic demand growing enough to offset the trade surplus amid the global economic slump."

"There is no chance China will run a trade deficit over the next few years, even though the surplus has been reduced," Long said.

The trade surplus for the first nine months was US$135.5 billion, down 26 percent year-on-year, customs said.