剧烈的货币政策调整当前不合时宜

langfanyun2001 · 发表于 2009-7-9 15:40:54

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            <font class=PreviewTitle>剧烈的货币政策调整当前不合时宜</font>

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         2009年07月09日 11:25:17

         　来源：<font color="000066">中国证券报</font>

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            <P>    2009年2季度以来，除出口增速外的其他主要宏观经济指标筑底反弹，大量的投资在整个经济中表现尤为突出，通货紧缩压力进一步消失，在国际大宗商品价格快速上升的前提下，我国再进行剧烈的货币政策调整显然不合时宜，存款准备金率和利率水平预计将保持平稳。
<P>    总结过去1年的货币政策，08年下半年为应对全球性的金融危机实行的是全面且剧烈的货币政策，包括大幅降息和下调存款准备金率，降低央票的发行频率。09年上半年，主要是采用公开市场操作，并在前期取消信贷额度的前提下，鼓励银行资金的信贷行为，使得资金向实体经济流动。而09年下半年，在通胀还没有完全上升至需要平抑的阶段，经济回暖但并未呈现过热的前提下，我们预计央行仍将保持宽松的货币政策，以稳固保增长的成果。但是由于前期央行大量信贷投放的可持续性问题，未来信贷增长面临着一个拐点，由此导致货币供应量M1、M2也必然面临一个拐点的问题，在货币供应增速出现下降的情况下，是否会对我国经济及通胀预期产生影响，这是一个值得关注的问题。
<P>    09年6月央票到期3330亿，央票发行3100亿，央行通过央票共释放资金230亿，正回购到期4100亿，正回购发行3300亿，通过正回购释放资金约800亿，央行通过公开市场操作共释放资金1030亿。6月份央行的操作具有明显的特点，就是主要通过正回购来调节资金。5月份央行取消了91天回购操作，把回购的期限全部放低至28天，6月份央行延续上期操作，80%以上资金通过发行28天回购进行回笼资金，并在IPO前一周，暂停回购操作，显示央行对资金面的呵护。而随着IPO的重启，对短期资金的冲击将更加明显，未来回购将在调节短期资金中起重要作用。
<P>    影响银行可投资债券的资金因素主要是存款、贷款与存款准备金率。新增银行可投资债券资金可表示为：新增存款*（1-存款准备金率）-新增贷款+存款准备金率变化影响的资金，其中存款准备金率包括法定存款准备金率和超额存款准备金率，在法定存款准备金率不变的假设下，超额存款准备金率已达低点，向下调整释放资金的能力不强，因此预计未来由存款准备金率变化而产生的对资金面的影响不大。下半年信贷投放没有上半年剧烈，我们判断作为资金来源的存款估计也将出现下降。理由如下：一方面，部分存款的增加是来源于贷款的转存，在信贷下降的时候，存款也将下降；另一方面我们发现存款增速与实际利率走势一致，考虑到未来CPI的回升，实际利率将下降，存款的吸引力也会随之下滑。因此信贷的下滑，并不意味着银行可投资债券资金的上升，还需要考虑存款的下降。
<P>    对比上半年，1季度由于超额存款准备金率大幅下调，银行新增可投资债券资金超过4700亿，以不变的超额存款准备金率计算，4月新增可投资债券资金2552亿，5月份4420亿，由此估算，上半年月度新增可投资债券资金约为4000亿以上。据媒体报道，6月份信贷恐超万亿，以6月份信贷1万亿计，我们设计测算未来银行月均新增可投资债券资金的敏感性分析表显示，在银行全年贷款8.5万亿-9.5万亿、贷存比保持在65%-75%的区间内，7-12月银行月均新增可投资资金在303亿-1243亿之间，与上半年相比，银行新增可投资债券资金的数量明显减少。(海通证券债券研究小组)</P>

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