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标题:
货币市场三大猜想
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岸上的猪
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2009-7-7 11:42
标题:
货币市场三大猜想
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<font class=PreviewTitle>货币市场三大猜想</font>
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2009年07月07日 09:18:39
来源：<font color="000066">中国证券报</font>
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<P> ２００９年信贷的井喷多少有些出乎意料，而宏观经济的反弹也超出多数人的预期。在后危机时代货币市场一些关键变量将会如何演进，值得关注。
<P> <STRONG> 猜想一： </STRONG>
<P><STRONG> 货币政策退出机制提前</STRONG>
<P> 可以看到目前中国宏观经济形势已经呈现向好趋势，投资、消费、工业增加值等经济指标在5月份已经出现明显好转，而最新的统计数据显示，6月份用电量年内首次实现正增长，由此来看，经济已经从谷底复苏。积极财政政策和宽松货币政策对经济的复苏至关重要，四万亿元财政刺激计划伴随5.17万亿信贷前所未有。经济的复苏表现为几个方面，第一宏观数据的验证；第二，资产价格上扬，股Shi和楼市半年内涨幅也十分明显；第三，通胀预期上升，国内债券收益率已经从低点回升，浮动利率债券持续受到追捧。
<P> 从2008年四季度以来，为应对国际金融危机的冲击，央行连续三次调整利率和存款准备金率、取消信贷额度限制、在公开市场中停发一年期和三年期票据、保持人民币汇率稳定。一系列政策取得良好效果，至2009年年中，经济向好趋势已初步确立。不过，众所周知的是，经济政策发挥效用往往存在一定的时滞，这就要求政策制定有一点前瞻性和灵活性。６月下旬的联储会议，使得宽松货币政策的退出机制成为市场关注的热点；而目前中国经济复苏的迹象已经初步明朗，为应对产生资产价格泡沫和通胀风险，央行宽松货币政策可能会提前结束，近来央行公开市场回购利率和央行票据利率均小幅上升一定程度上也反映了央行的意图。退出机制提前可能意味着：第一，存款准备金率下调的概率下降；第二，央行加息预期上升；第三，央行可能首先在公开市场中采取措施。
<P> 不过，中金公司认为，在政府认为实体经济依然孱弱而资产价格大幅上扬之际，治理泡沫的最好方法是增加资产供给，即更大力度推出IPO，而非政策的转向。市场短期内需要关注的是：第一，6月新增贷款高公布后货币政策微调的可能性，第二，中央有些部委最近可能展开的调研结束后是否将引起领导人对资产价格泡沫的重视；第三，更大规模IPO的推出。
<P> <STRONG> 猜想二： </STRONG>
<P><STRONG> 中长期贷款占比上升 </STRONG>
<P> 从总体趋势上来看，从2009年1月份中长期贷款累计占比稳步提高，从1月份的36%增长至5月份的48%。而从历年数据来看，大多数年份中长期贷款新增量的年初累计占比都是逐步上升的，这说明银行确实有上半年通过票据贴现占用额度、下半年再将到期的贴现贷款转换为中长期贷款的行为特征。至少有两方面的因素将推升中长期贷款的占比。第一，票据融资转换为中长期贷款；第二，伴随着房地产回暖，居民中长期消费贷款逐步回升。而对于债市来说，从存贷款数据来看，贷款结构中中长期贷款的占比继续保持在高位，而存款结构开始初步显现活期化的趋势，这显示银行在通过提高资产的久期和降低负债的久期来保证较高的息差收益。银行资产负债久期的变化必然对债券配置产生影响。
<P> <STRONG> 猜想三： </STRONG>
<P><STRONG> 外汇占款上升且成为趋势</STRONG>
<P> 5月份我国金融机构新增外汇占款为2425.65亿元，这是09年以来该数据首次突破2000亿元。有两个方面的数据可能意味着外汇占款在一段时期内将持续上升。第一，人民币升值预期，从２００９年初以来，以海外人民币ＮＤＦ为指标的人民币币值预期发生逆转，人民币再次面临升值压力。第二，中金公司的数据显示，上周有4.1亿美元资金流入中国股票基金，为三个星期以来最高。中金认为，预期全球经济增长动力将以新兴市场为主（特别是中国和印度），如大宗商品价格持续企稳，巴西和俄罗斯等能源及原材料出口大国将被看好，因此长期基金在新兴市场，特别是金砖四国股票市场的资产权重可能还会继续上升。(记者 周文渊)</P>
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