Crisis and Transformation：New Regionalism and East Asia’s Regional Cooper

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  East Asia Monetary Regionalism


The “new” aspect of East Asia’s new regionalism is the monetary regionalism. Aiming at the practice and developing trend of the monetary cooperation in East Asia, some well-known European researchers of regionalism respectively put forward the theory of “monetary regionalism”. Since there still exists the danger of repeated explosion of the financial crisis, the theory of monetary regionalism is of great significance in terms of avoidance of the future financial crisis and enhancement of the comprehensive cooperation in East Asia region.

Generally speaking, many people simply believe that the economic interdependence between states is beneficial to their relations, as well as to the regional cooperation. In fact, the regional interdependence or regionalization is not equal to regionalism. They are two different concepts. The states in East Asia have already related to each other and closely interacted in terms of economy, but what they are lack of is the mechanism, system and regulations to administrate, regulate and control their interdependence. After the financial crisis, the process of the regional monetary cooperation in East Asia has already started, yet the progress is still limited. Furthermore, with the passing of the financial crisis, most East Asian countries have again focused on the trade problems (bilateral trade negotiations), East Asia, though interdependent yet with no regional framework is still in a bad position to prevent the next financial crisis.

Heribert Dieter, the German scholar, is the earliest one to raise the concept of “monetary regionalism”. He believes that after the financial crisis what ASEAN and China-Japan-Korea wanted most is to set up their own regional liquidity fund, which could provide East Asia with its own emergent financial loans. In case the financial crisis comes again, East Asian countries could help each other, needless taking trouble of going all the way to Washington for help.

Yet, in Chiengmai, Thailand in May, 2000, what the 13 East Asian countries decided to set up was not the liquidity fund Dieter wanted, but an initial arrangement for the regional monetary exchanges. The aim of the arrangement of monetary exchange is to establish a regional financial cooperation network based on the bilateral agreement of monetary exchange and buy-back among East Asian countries so as to protect the currency against speculating attack. According to Dieter’s design of monetary regionalism, Chiengmai plan was a good beginning, the first step for East Asia to march toward the monetary integration, since the first step might lead to the emergence of East Asia monetary alliance.

But, the reality is that Chiengmai plan, which has not laid out the purpose of monetary alliance, is only a very small step for East Asia’s regional monetary cooperation. As of the present stage, there is no possibility for any official or quasi-official monetary cooperation to come into being. It is hard to determine the unanimous aim of East Asia monetary cooperation, even including Chiengmai plan. In this sense, the present East Asia monetary cooperation can go no farther and stop where it is. This plan is very different from the original assumed “Asia Monetary Fund”(AMF). Chiengmai plan is not going to challenge the authority of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), instead, it is effective supplement of the later. In case there appears crisis, East Asia countries will still ask Washington for help, because Japan has no intention to offend America. According to Chiengmai plan, implementation of the bilateral monetary agreement of East Asia countries should be linked with the permission of IMF. If a country needs to draw more than 10% of the loan from Japan Central Bank, it must get the permission of IMF first. Hence, Chiengmai plan is limited to small sum of loan, it is not the regional liquidity fund. It is due to this limitation that some American scholars believe that this plan, instead of challenging the authority of IMF guided by the States, is beneficial to American interests, America should support the plan that is supplement of and compatible with IMF.

Dieter believes that the difference between the regionalism of the 21st century and that of the 20th century lies in the monetary regionalism. The so-called monetary regionalism is none other than the regionalism that prevents and protects each country against attacks from the financial crisis. That is to say, the fundamental purpose of monetary regionalism is to prevent the financial crisis from explosion, or in case the financial crisis breaks out, it could effectively stabilize the regional monetary situation via the unified strength of the region. Therefore, he put forward the theory of financial regionalism, believing that East Asia is the most possible region where monetary regionalism could be realized.

The traditional theory of regionalism, aiming at Europe, was born in the 60’ of the 20th century. Since then this theory has been improved continuously. “5-stage doctrine” put forward by the theory concerning the regional integration has been regarded as insurmountable stages so far as any regional integration is considered. Economist Bela Balassa in 1961 put forward that the regional integration should be carried out in the following 5 stages: free trade region, tariff coalition, common market, financial and monetary coalition, political union.

Obviously, this theory grew out of the purpose and practice of European regional integration. Its background was as follows: 1) tariff wall in the world trade was still very high. Compared with the multinational capital flow, tariff was more important; 2) most countries through the control of capital maintained the fixed exchange rate system; 3) the trade integration in each country’s economy was a very important target so as to enhance the competitive ability in the world market. But the world economy is very much different from what it was 40 years ago. The function of tariff is decreased, the multinational capital flow is rising greatly, the trade status is falling, while the financial status is going up greatly. Under such situation, the regional integration in Europe developed from the original free trade region and common market to monetary union, hence the regional monetary cooperation became important content in the regional cooperation.

Dieter and Higgott, a well-known British international political economist, jointly put forward a new theory of regionalism to revise or replace the above traditional theory of regionalism. That is the theory of regionalism based on monetary regionalism, while East Asia might be the beneficiary of the theory. They put forward 4 stages to realize the regional monetary integration:

● Regional Liquidity Fund. This is a regional monetary security network. The country joining the Fund put part of its foreign exchange reserve into the Fund. When monetary crisis appears, the central bank of participant could not only use its own foreign exchange reserve, but also other countries’ through the Fund. Technically speaking, such liquidity fund serves as an agreement of monetary exchange. The regional central bank forum, as well as the regional monetary cooperation committee, is going to set up. In addition to the public regional monetary fund, private liquidity fund is also considered to set up. It is necessary to control the capital. It is also necessary to jointly supervise the monetary and financial policy, especially the financial market.

● Regional Monetary System. It is to stabilize the member country’s macro-economy through the proper arrangement of regional exchange rate. The exchange rate of the member state is not fixed forever, but could be regulated. In the stage, meeting of the regional liquidity committee should be held to expand the regional liquidity fund. The regional trade cooperation should be promoted and the free trade should be free, direct and simple. The monetary policy, especially the rate policy and financial policy should also be regulated.

● Economic and Monetary Union. The exchange rate of the member states should be fixed in a long-term. Regional Simple Currency should be created. The regional political institutions and system framework, especially the regional central bank, should be established. The control of capital should be loosened and the tariff union should be set up.

● Political Union. Political union, as well as some super-state regional institutions and their functions, is to be set up.

European regionalist scholars regard the final union between states and financial cooperation as the final target of regional cooperation, because, in this way, they could not only hand-in-hand face the financial crisis (monetary regionalist believe that monetary cooperation could effectively resist financial crisis), but also get “regional independence” after overcoming huge political barriers. Obviously, Dieter and Higgott have made great revision of the traditional theory concerning the regional integration.

Indeed, East Asia could develop its own new regionalism in accordance with the thinking of monetary regionalism. East Asia monetary regionalism, born in the period of financial crisis, should stick to the prevention of the next financial crisis as the main target, which is also the lowest and the most realistic target that continuously arouses the interest of the states concerned. At present, in East Asia, the financial crisis is still a realistic and potential danger. There still exist problems concerning the macro-economy within each country. The economic balance has not yet restored in those countries that suffered the last financial crisis, the exchange rate among East Asian countries is still missing in effective regulation, and the present agreement of monetary exchange is only of symbolic meaning, not substantive. Under these circumstances, it will be of great help to upgrade monetary cooperation to monetary regionalism in terms of clearing the aim of East Asia monetary cooperation.

Following the thinking of monetary cooperation, East Asia could set up the goal of regional monetary cooperation and achieve it. It is of course unrealistic to raise East Asia monetary cooperation to a relatively high level in a short time, but it is either acceptable to plan too long the process of East Asia monetary cooperation. Surely, there exist some disadvantages such as diversities and stubborn political barriers with in East Asia, but there still exist some advantages. East Asia could learn a lot of experience and lessons from European monetary cooperation. It took less than 20 years for Europe to set up the European monetary system after the report concerning the establishment of European monetary system was first delivered in 1960 by Prime Minister Pierre Werner of Luxembourg. It didn’t take another 20 years, either, for European monetary union to issue Euro after European monetary system was born in 1979. Asian monetary cooperation started from the financial crisis, which stressed the urgency. All countries are under the same roof, there will be no way out without cooperation, hence what should be strengthened is nothing but common sense of crisis and union of willpower. Probably what should be reached in unanimity now is whether there will be possibility to realize the same target of monetary unification in perhaps 20 years, instead of 40 years spent in Europe.

The fundamental aim of East Asia monetarism is to realize the regional unified currency. The means of achieving the goal can vary. My proposals toward East Asia monetary cooperation are as follows:

● Appreciation of RMB should be discussed in the region first; The reform of RMB exchange rate system should be linked with East Asia monetary cooperation, serving as an important pivot to promote East Asia monetary cooperation.

● To integrate East Asia’s existing monetary cooperative systems. The Chiengmai Plan and its like could be regarded as the base for the regional monetary cooperation.

● To re-discuss the definition of “Asian Monetary Fund”. To get rid of the misconception of IMF and set up Asia Monetary Fund different from IMF in terms of function and nature. Different from IMF, Asia Monetary Fund is mainly a regional monetary cooperation institution, it should not play the supplementary role of IMF in Asia, let alone the replacement of the function of IMF, but of the same level.

● Based on Asia Monetary fund, East Asia Monetary System (EAMS) should be set up in the first place. Similar to European Monetary System to some degree, it should comprehensively strengthen its coordination between monetary policies and financial policies on the basis of the existing meeting of presidents of central banks and minister of financial ministry of 13 East Asian countries. “East Asia Cooperation Bank”, as the embryonic form of the future East Asia Central Bank, should be put on the agenda.

● Within some area to carry out the monetary unification in small scale. China’ mainland, Hong Kong and Taiwan could realize the monetary unification (named “Hua Yuan”); ASEAN countries could also realize their monetary unification (named “ASEAN Yuan) based on AFTA and their exchange rate system. Based on Hua Yuan and ASEAN Yuan, even including Korean Yuan, “Asia Yuan” should come into being. The first countries of “Asia Yuan” could include China’s mainland, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao, ASEAN and Korea. Asia Yuan and Japanese Yen could co-exist. The birth of Asia Yuan will greatly promote the development of East Asia free trade zone.

guellezhang

顶!!!

waynezhang86

不错```

杀猪的

来源？什么杂志

baobao66

格式好像gre的大作文，呵呵

tauringhuang.

有意思