Now the hard part

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Sep 22nd 2008
From the Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire

Tzipi Livni has some way to go to become prime minister of Israel


Tzipi Livni lost no time in knuckling down to the tough task of coalition-building, following her narrow victory in the leadership primary of Kadima, currently Israel's governing party, on September 17th. Over the next two days she held a series of meetings with the leaders of prospective coalition partners, including the leaders of Shas—a right-leaning Orthodox party whose main policy platform is welfare-oriented—and of the Pensioners Party, and finally with Ehud Barak, the head of the Labour party, the junior partner in the existing government coalition (the two are said not to get on).

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Mofaz walks
However, in the midst of these meetings, she suffered her first major blow in her new role. At a dramatic press conference on Thursday evening, her defeated rival for the Kadima leadership, Shaul Mofaz, the transport minister, announced his temporary withdrawal from politics. He noted that his legal advisers had urged him to appeal against Ms Livni's wafer-thin (431 votes or 1.1%) advantage and to demand recounts and investigations of possible electoral irregularities, but said that he accepted the outcome and would not appeal. Indeed, he pledged to continue to support Kadima and urged the party to come together behind Ms Livni.

The dissonance between Mr Mofaz's words and actions could hardly be greater. He had promised during the campaign that, should he lose, he would not leave the party, let alone return to Likud, whence he had reluctantly come after Ariel Sharon broke away from Likud to form Kadima, taking Ehud Olmert, Ms Livni and much of Likud's senior echelon with him. Yet by astutely positioning himself on the fence, Mr Mofaz has left that option open—along with many others.

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Ms Livni's supporters sought to put a brave face on Mr Mofaz's move, saying in effect that she and the party were better off without him. She herself was more circumspect, stressing his past and potential future contribution. This suggests that she would prefer to have Mr Mofaz inside her government than leave him free to create trouble for her as a free actor.

In any event, Mr Mofaz's departure and his potential to split Kadima create an unexpected additional hurdle on Ms Livni's road to the premiership. Winning the primary was only the first and, arguably, the easiest step—although the polls, which consistently predicted she would coast home, proved to be wide of the mark.

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Early election
In order to become premier, Ms Livni has to present to the 120-seat Knesset a coalition that commands a majority and to demonstrate that majority by winning a confidence vote. Labour and Mr Barak are so low in the opinion polls that they will probably have no choice but to support her. Shas, however, has adopted a strategy of tying its agreement to join a Livni government on her acceptance of two key issues: removing any possible redivision of Jerusalem from the agenda of the ongoing peace talks with the Palestinian Authority, and providing significant extra support for poor families through a hefty increase in child allowances.

In practice, both of these principles are flexible—in both directions. Shas may well decide that its interests are better served by a general election in early 2009, in which case it will use that flexibility to trump any concessions Ms Livni may offer and prevent her achieving the majority she needs. However, such a negotiating strategy would cut both ways. Ms Livni may also conclude that, with the economy heading for a slowdown, her best bet is to go to the country as soon as possible and seek a broad personal mandate. If, by the time the Knesset reconvenes after the High Holidays in October, Shas is still playing hard to get, she may well prefer to present herself as a new-style leader, honest and responsible, who refuses to buy her coalition partners by busting the budget or destroying the peace process—and go for an election in February or March.

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Stuck with Olmert?
Before any of this can happen, the incumbent prime minister, Ehud Olmert, has to make good on his pledge to stand down after the Kadima primary selected his successor. Until he does—or is forced to do so by a decision by the Attorney-General to bring charges against him—he remains premier. And if the government should now fall in a vote of confidence, he will remain head of the caretaker government until after the subsequent general election.