The Palin effect

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Sep 16th 2008 | NEW YORK
From Economist.com

John McCain has wiped out Barack Obama's lead in the polls

AFP
BOUNCES are, by definition, temporary. Nearly a fortnight has passed since the end of the Republican convention and it is clear that it, and the Democratic get-together beforehand, have produced more than just a bounce. The conventions, and especially John McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin, have changed the course of the presidential race. On Monday September 15th both candidates sought to make tough statements on the demise of Lehman Brothers and the turmoil on Wall Street. And both attempted to score points off the other over the strength of those responses.

Even battling for small victories is important at this stage of the race. Before the conventions, Barack Obama enjoyed modest, but enduring, poll leads for weeks on end. Just after, Mr McCain suddenly shot to big leads in many polls himself. Now, public opinion shows that the race is probably tied or that Mr McCain has a small lead. The electoral college is of course more important. But here, too, the dynamics seem to be changing.

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A big reason for Mr McCain’s boost seems to be Mrs Palin. She is both a staunch Christian conservative and a western governor. This has helped Mr McCain in the territorial battle. When Mr Obama was riding high, he confidently put resources into states that Democrats had disdained, especially the interior West and the South. Polls provided him with good reason for doing so, showing a race that was surprisingly close in unlikely states such as Montana, North Dakota, North Carolina and Georgia. But Mrs Palin’s selection has brought the Christian wing of his party, formerly sceptical, not only into line but enthusiastically so. Mr Obama is scaling back some of his more ambitious efforts, including pulling money and staff from Georgia (to put them in North Carolina, where he has a slightly better chance).

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Other aspects of public opinion have changed too. A post-convention poll shows the two candidates nearly tied in perceptions of who would change Washington. Independents are moving towards Mr McCain despite Mr Obama’s strong advocacy of “change” in his campaign. The “enthusiasm” gap is closing, too: before, many voters told pollsters that they would vote for Mr McCain, but not happily. Now, many more are pleased with their pick. Again, Mrs Palin's elevation has much to do with this. At the Republican convention in St Paul, she generated such enthusiasm that there was jocular talk of flipping the ticket to put her at the top and Mr McCain in the vice-presidential slot.

Mr McCain has not taken control of the race, by any means. But having solidified support in previously wobbly states, it means he can concentrate more closely on a handful of swing states that Mr Obama must win himself. Once again, Ohio is pivotal, along with Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. Mr Obama also has a shot in Virginia and Colorado, traditional Republican territory. If he wins these states, he will probably win the election. If Mr McCain simply holds the states that George Bush won in 2004, naturally he wins. And Mr McCain thinks he also might snatch Michigan from the Democrats.

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There is concern, but not panic, on the Democratic side. On Monday, both Mr Obama and his running mate, Joe Biden, sharpened their attacks. And they had good news to back them up: in August, Mr Obama once again smashed the monthly fundraising record for a presidential candidate, hauling in $66m. His press team is responding quickly and furiously to attacks from Mr McCain. One last week was particularly scurrilous: a television advertisement saying Mr Obama wanted kindergartens to have sex education. In fact, Mr Obama supported a bill that would include teaching designed to prevent child sex abuse.

Mr McCain has also been caught telling some straightforward fibs, for example that Mrs Palin, as governor, had “never” sought federal earmark money for her state—her request per head for Alaska was the biggest in the country. He and Mrs Palin continue to insist that she killed an infamous “bridge to nowhere” project in Alaska, even though every journalist in America now knows she did so only after supporting it, and only after it became a political albatross. Mr McCain has good reason to worry about his reputation for straight-talk, the strongest part of his political brand.