And don't return

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Sep 13th 2008
From Economist.com

Think carefully before making a comeback

AP
LANCE ARMSTRONG is undoubtedly a phenomenal athlete. The seven-times winner of the Tour de France, the world’s most gruelling sporting event, is also adept at making comebacks. His first victory in the race came after he returned to cycling following his successful battle with cancer. But now he has elected to return again. On Tuesday September 9th Mr Armstrong declared his intention to race in the Tour next year once again, four years after his retirement and at the age of 37.

There are several factors at play in Mr Armstrong’s decision. He has said that he is keen to raise awareness of the global burden of cancer. Mostly though he believes he can win the race and that his victory will silence the doubters who reckoned that he must have used performance-enhancing drugs, even though he never failed a drug test at any stage of his career. The recent races have been marred drug scandals involving the leading riders and now testing is so tight that the organisers say that drug taking has been all but eradicated.

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This could well be true and may have provided another enticement to Mr Armstrong. He maintains that the new crop of drug-free young riders are not quick enough to beat him, despite his years on the sidelines. Another spur to his comeback is the success at the Beijing Olympics of Darra Torres, a swimmer who won three silver medals at 41 years old. But she had never retired. Mr Armstrong may find it tough to reacquire both the mental and physical attributes required of winners after his years off.

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The roster of sporting comebacks is full of the names of athletes that would have been better advised to stay at home. Muhammad Ali returned to the ring at the age of 38, after some two years out of it, to receive a horrifying battering form Larry Holmes. George Foreman regained a world heavyweight title at the age of 45 but with a fortunate punch in a fight in which he was trailing badly. The lure of more big pay-days and titles is strong but should be avoided if the experiences of Bjorn Borg, who returned in 1991 in his mid-30s after retiring at 26. He never won another match. Katarina Witt, a German ice-skater, also failed in a high-profile comeback bid.

Perhaps Mr Armstrong can be more like Michael Jordan. But the basketball player retired at the age of 30 and returned to enjoy great success at the age of 32—still his sporting prime. Mr Armstrong may find that he is at the wrong end of his thirties.

Sport is not the only arena that is unforgiving for those that would comeback. Sportsmen have a shelf life determined by age and desire. Politicians can rarely ingratiate themselves with the public for a second time. Napoleon’s return from exile was short-lived, failing finally at the battle of Waterloo. Richard Nixon “retired” in 1962 after losing an election for the governorship of California. “You won’t have Nixon to kick around anymore” he said and many Americans may wish that he had kept his word—electoral success was not matched by a successful presidency. Yet Charles de Gaulle had a happier experience.

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Entertainers have a better time. The Spice Girls, Frank Sinatra or Led Zeppelin relied on public tastes the first time round and nostalgia the second. Unlike sportsmen they are no longer expected to deliver the “peak” performances of yesteryear and do not directly compete with their successors.

In business the returning chief executive of yesteryear can still have a significant role to play. Steve Jobs or Michael Dell returned to the chief executive’s chair of Apple and Dell after a long break (though, significantly, they had not retired). More generally, the talented businessman is unconstrained by the factors of age or public acclaim that other “stars” must contend with and other opportunities are on offer to those that want to take a reduced role. For example, Howard Schultz resumed his roles chief executive of Starbucks’ in 2008 after eight years as chairman, in the hope of reviving the company’s fortunes.

But Mr Armstrong must hope not to follow the example of a fellow American who reassumed the top job. Ken Lay retook the chief executive’s role at Enron in August 2001 after a break of six months and shortly before the firm made the biggest bankruptcy filing in American history.