Planning for El Salvador's poll

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Sep 8th 2008
From the Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire

The leftist opposition unveils its electoral programme


El Salvador's political scene is dominated by preparations for the legislative election that will take place in January 2009 and the presidential poll set for March 2009. In recent weeks, the opposition Frente Farabundo Martí para la Liberación Nacional (FMLN), which currently has a commanding lead in opinion polls, has been trying to dispel the lingering doubts over its intentions in government by publishing a “plan de gobierno” (a party programme).

The result of protracted negotiations within the party as well as between its more radical leadership and supporters of its moderate presidential candidate, Mauricio Funes (who was not a party member until late August 2008), the programme was officially presented by the candidate at a party convention in mid-August.

Among its key points are pledges to:

* promote a national dialogue, respect private property and promote business and investment opportunities, in particular seeking to diversify El Salvador’s exports markets;

* adhere to all existing trade agreements, including the Central American Free-Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA, a bilateral free-trade agreement between the US and Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic);

* respect all foreign-debt obligations undertaken by the ruling Alianza Republicana Nacionalista (Arena);

* maintain dollarisation;

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* mantain current social programmes which target subsidies such as Red Solidaria and Fosalud, and in addition, establish a basic universal pension;

* tackle crime and drug addiction through education and job creation programmes; and

* re-establish diplomatic relations with Cuba.

The programme is aimed at reassuring investors and voters that dollarisation will not be abandoned, trade agreements will adhered to and all debt obligations will be honoured. However, apart from these more specific statements, the programme is vague. This reflects the fact that, even if Mr Funes secures the presidency (not the Economist Intelligence Unit's current forecast), he will not only have to deal with internal FMLN factionalism between a radical leadership and a more moderate membership, but will also face an opposition-dominated Congress as most of the smaller opposition parties have a right-of-centre ideology and would rally around Arena. This will complicate government policymaking, making it almost impossible to implement a radical legislative agenda.

Eroding the FMLN’s lead
Meanwhile, a July poll by Borge & Asociados and an August poll by CID-Gallup showed that Rodrigo Ávila, the Arena candidate for the presidency, was narrowing Mr Funes's lead. According to the July poll by Borge & Asociados, the margin between the two candidates has been reduced to seven percentage points (with Mr Funes leading by 37.6% over Mr Ávila's 30.5%), from 14 points in June (37.5% for Mr Funes compared with 23.2% for Mr Ávila).

In the August Cid-Gallup poll, Mr Funes's advantage had shrunk to 10 percentage points (39.8% as against 29.7%), from 19 percentage points in May 2008. The trend appears to indicate that Mr Ávila's profile as a candidate is rising, helped by his relentless town-to-town campaigning in recent months and Arena's heavy investment in television and radio spots. In the May polls he had only been a candidate for two months whereas Mr Funes had been canvassing voters since late 2007. Moreover, it is also possible that some of the campaigning by Arena around the alleged links between the FMLN and the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC, one of Colombia's main guerrilla groups) has raised concerns among voters.

However, with many voters still undecided—Cid-Gallup found that, as in May, around one-quarter of the electorate remains undecided about which candidate to support—and seven months left until the presidential election takes place, the election remains wide open.