Samak pulls the emergency cord

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Sep 4th 2008 | BANGKOK
From The Economist print edition

The government tries to stand firm against an ever more ruthless street opposition
Reuters
THAILAND’S foreign minister, Tej Bunnag, has been trying to reassure the world that the chaotic scenes it has been seeing on its television screens from Bangkok are just “part of Thailand’s political evolution and the democratic process”. This Panglossian view became harder to sustain after violent clashes between government supporters and opponents on September 2nd, which prompted Samak Sundaravej, the prime minister, to declare a state of emergency in the capital. One pro-government demonstrator died and dozens from both sides were hurt. Mr Tej himself has resigned. The reasons are unclear, but it hardly helps the stability of Mr Samak’s government, especially since Mr Tej advises the revered monarchy.

The army now has the power to remove by force the thousands of members of the anti-government People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) occupying Mr Samak’s offices and demanding his resignation. But the army chief, General Anupong Paochinda, has insisted force will not be used. The protesters have a variety of weapons and have been whipped up by the PAD’s megalomaniac leaders. They claim to be saving the monarchy from Thaksin Shinawatra, the prime minister deposed in the 2006 military coup, whose supporters won last December’s election.

It is now three years since Sondhi Limthongkul, a businessman and former pal of Mr Thaksin’s, fell out with him and founded the PAD. The conflict has ebbed and flowed but this week took a turn for the worse. It had hitherto essentially been contained in a few blocks in Bangkok’s old town. But the PAD has begun blocking airports and calling for nationwide strikes by transport and public-utility workers.

A strike called for September 3rd was generally ignored by workers. The PAD’s excessive tactics, and its calls for the replacement of democracy with a mostly unelected parliament, have lost it much support among the urban middle-classes. Its support base may only be tens of thousands in a country of 64m people—but, unchecked, that is enough to wreak havoc.

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The security forces’ reluctance to apply the law may reflect a sensible refusal to risk bloodshed. In the past they have been accused of excessive violence, such as in suppressing pro-democracy demonstrations in 1992, so they fear a public backlash. However, there may be murkier reasons for the restraint. Among the PAD’s backers are some hardline army generals and, it is rumoured in hushed tones, influential figures close to the royal palace. Some PAD demonstrators are liberals protesting at the abuses of power under Mr Thaksin and Mr Samak. Some believe they have the palace’s tacit backing.

Throwing fuel on the flames, the Election Commission announced this week it was asking the courts to dissolve Mr Samak’s People’s Power Party (PPP) for alleged fraud in December’s election. The PPP became the vehicle for Mr Thaksin’s allies after the courts dissolved his original party last year. The PPP won by far the most seats in the election, since when it has governed in a six-party coalition. To PAD stalwarts the commission’s ruling shows they are right to try to bring down a corrupt government. To the government camp it looks like another sign that Bangkok’s traditional, royalist elite is frustrating the people’s will, to protect its privileges.

Various ways out of the conflict are being mooted. One, discussed by Mr Samak’s cabinet this week, is a referendum on whether the public supports the government or the PAD. Another is a fresh election. But either would, most likely, be won by the Thaksinites and be ignored by the PAD, which has little regard for popular votes. A “government of national unity” is being bandied about: this would unfairly reward the opportunistic Democrats, the parliamentary opposition party, whose links with the undemocratic PAD have become ever more obvious. Mr Sondhi hinted in a newspaper interview that if Mr Samak stepped down he might accept another PPP figure as prime minister.

So far, most of Bangkok has gone about its business as normal. After the 2006 coup, some foreign visitors saw the tanks on the streets as another tourist attraction. This time, with public transport and utilities targets of the protesters, the economic risks may be greater (tourism accounts for 6.5% of Thailand’s GDP). As the world economy wobbles, prolonged conflict is the last thing Thailand needs.