An emergency in Thailand

tauringhuang.

Sep 2nd 2008 | BANGKOK
From Economist.com

The army is called in as pro- and anti-government protesters clash

AP
WITH protesters occupying Government House in Bangkok for the past week, several tourist airports being blocked by demonstrators and union leaders calling for strikes to bring down Samak Sundaravej, the prime minister, it had seemed only a matter of time before things turned violent. In the early hours of Tuesday September 2nd, they did. Supporters and opponents of the government armed with a variety of weapons clashed in the capital, leaving one person dead and dozens injured. Mr Samak called a state of emergency, putting the army in charge of security.

Rumours in Bangkok in the past few days had suggested that General Anupong Paochinda, the army chief, was resisting Mr Samak’s request for a state of emergency. If so, the violence changed his mind. The army has a low tolerance for political disorder and has frequently used it as an excuse to seize power. Indeed, Mr Samak has accused his opponents in the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD)—which is staging the sit-in at Government House—of trying to provoke another coup, so as to force Mr Samak and his People’s Power Party (PPP) from office.

What happens next? General Anupong is saying—so far—that force will not be used to remove the protesters from Government House. But if it becomes necessary there may be more bloodshed. And if strikes go ahead at state firms there could be disruptions to the economy.

Another coup, by some or other bit of the armed forces, is possible. So far General Anupong is backing Mr Samak, who shrewdly built bridges with the army chief. The general strengthened his grip in a recent shuffle of senior soldiers. But the PAD’s backers include several hardline generals who are determined to topple the prime minister.

Within hours of the state of emergency being declared, the country’s Election Commission threw fuel on the flames, saying that it would ask the courts to disband the PPP for alleged vote fraud in the general election last December. The PPP became the vehicle for supporters of Thaksin Shinawatra, the prime minister deposed in the 2006 coup, after courts dissolved his original party. The PPP won by far the most seats in the election, since when it has governed in a six-party coalition with a strong majority. The election suggests that Mr Thaksin and his allies remain popular, despite many allegations of corruption and abuse of power.

Pro-Thaksin protesters are likely to be further enraged by the Election Commission’s ruling. As they see it, a Bangkok-based royalist clique, ranging from the PAD’s leadership to elements of the armed forces, the bureaucracy, the courts and palace officials, is conspiring to overthrow democracy to protect its privileges.

The PAD dresses its supporters in yellow, a colour associated with King Bhumibol. It accuses the Thaksinites, without showing any convincing evidence, of plotting to bring down Thailand’s highly respected monarch, ignoring the fact that Mr Samak is a fierce royalist (perhaps why he was chosen to stand in for Mr Thaksin). At least some PAD supporters at Government House believe they have tacit royal blessing for their protest. The king granted Mr Samak an audience over the weekend but no details have emerged of what was said.

Fresh elections might possibly resolve the conflict, say some. But even if the PPP is disbanded, the Thaksinites will run under the banner of another new political party that they have been preparing. And the public, especially rural Thais who benefited from Mr Thaksin’s policies of cheap health care and credit, would most likely support it. So the PAD’s leaders—a deeply reactionary bunch—have been touting what they call “new politics”, in fact a return to old, pre-democracy politics with a mostly unelected parliament and powers for the army to intervene when it chooses.

So far, most of Bangkok has gone about its business as normal. After the 2006 coup, foreign visitors treated the tanks on the streets as if they were a tourist attraction. This time, with airports, railways and utilities being targeted by the anti-government protesters, the economic risks may be greater. Singapore and South Korea, which send many tourists to Thailand and invest heavily there, have told their citizens to stay away for now. With the world economy wobbling, this prolonged conflict is something Thailand could badly do without.