当代西方国际关系理论（倪世雄）后六章详细总结

余岚0528 · 发表于 2006-5-27 00:45:07

第一论 国家利益论 一、国家利益概念的形成和发展 国家利益是国际关系理论研究的核心概念之一，它意指国家在复杂的国际关系中维护本国和本民族免受外来侵害的一些基本原则。它是国家制定对外目标的重要依据和决定因素。 国家利益的概念曾经经过三个明显的发展阶段； 国家至上阶段、王朝利益阶段和真正意义上的国家利益阶段。 在西方国际关系研究领域，关于国家利益的研究主要涉及四个问题： 1、 国家利益概念笼统化 摩根索提出明确的定义：国家利益应当包括三个重要的方面：领土完整、国家主权和文化完整。 2、 国家利益代表的是什么人的利益。 3、 如果国家利益是由统治者们决定的，那么国家利益的内涵是由什么因素来决定的。 4、 国家利益在一个国家的决策中起多大的作用。 二、关于国家利益问题的研究 对于上述四个问题，西方学术界的研究和回应是： 1、在国家利益内涵的研究上，从泛泛的国家利益研究发展到强调国家利益的层次研究上。 1996年《美国国家利益》研究报告，系统地提出了美国国家利益的十个基本概念。 国家利益的四个层次：根本利益、极端重要利益、重要利益和次要利益。 对国家利益用层次分析的办法进行研究的好处在于： 第一， 它可以避免以前在国家利益分析上的缺陷。 第二， 对国家利益进行层次分析可以在国家决策的过程中有前后选择。 第三， 这样的层次分析还具有它自身的灵活性。 2、国家利益代表的是什么人的利益。在这个问题上，西方国际关系理论界有不同的解释。 一派认为国家利益就是指全体人们的利益，即国家利益是国内利益的总和。 第二派认为，一国的国家利益是全部国内利益和部分国际利益的总和。 第三派认为，国家利益代表的是一个国家内一部分人的利益，是统治者的利益。 3、摩根索认为，确定一个国家的国家利益是由这个国家的权力来决定的。国家的权力大， 国家的利益就可能大；国家的权力小，国家的利益就只能小。总之，一个国家国家利益 的制定说到底不是主观臆想的产物，而是由客观存在决定的，而这个客观存在物就是一 个国家的实力。 4、国家利益在一个国家的决策中起多大的作用。 国家利益在一个国家的外交政策中起到决定性的作用，是“世界政治的主要推动力” 国家利益在一个国家的外交决策中起者关键的作用，任何其他因素在外交决策中都不可 以取代它。

余岚0528 · 发表于 2006-5-27 00:45:38

第二论 权利论 一、国内政治中的权力理论研究 权力的概念首先出现在国内政治中。 马克斯·韦伯认为：权力是把一个人的意志强加在其他人的行为之上的能力。 西方一些学者认为，权力在国内政治中主要有三种表现形式： 应得惩罚的权力、报偿的权力和制约的权力。 西方学者还认为，在国内政治中，权力的来源主要有三种：人格、财产和组织。 在国际关系上对权力的研究，我们应当注意两个问题： 一是国际关系中对权力的研究比在国内政治中对权力的研究要持久和深入得多。 二是国际政治中对权力的研究都是从对国内的权力的一般的权力研究发展而来的。 摩根索对国际政治中的权力作了精辟的界定： “国际政治，像一切政治一样，是追逐权力的斗争。无论国际政治的终极目标是什么，权力 总是它的直接目标。” 摩根索认为对权力的追求是国际政治中不可回避的铁的规律。 二、国际关系中权力的存在与根源 在现实主义学者看来，国家对权力追求的根源来自于个人对权力的追求。 西方学者指出，权力存在有四个条件： 第一， 在权力的影响者和被影响者之间存在着价值和利益的冲突。 第二， 在权力的关系中，一方最终一定会对另一方的要求有所屈服。 第三， 在权力显示的过程中，权力一方对另一方的服从所花的代价比不服从所花的代价小。 第四， 在权力的行使者和权力的被行使者之间的差别越大，双方之间发生武装冲突的可能性就越大。 目前，西方对国家实力的研究可以分为三个学派： 一派是定性分析学派，主要人物是 雷蒙·阿隆和汉斯·摩根索。 雷蒙把国家的力量归结为三大基本要素：所占据的地理空间、资源、集体行动的能力。 摩根索认为国家权力的根源主要来自九个方面 ： 地理因素、自然资源、工业能力、军事准备、人口、民族性格、国民士气、外交质量和政府质量。归纳起来，摩根索把国家的权力分为有形的权力和无形的权力两种。 一派是定量分析学派，又称行为主义学派。 该派人物用定量分析的方法把国家实力中的各种因素进行分解、量化。 代表人物：卡尔·多伊奇和史蒂文·拉布姆斯。 多伊奇提出了“权力分量”的观点。 布拉姆斯依据交往关系对权力的影响力进行了测量。 最后一派是把定性分析和定量分析结合起来进行研究。 代表人物是克莱因，他提出了著名的国家综合国力公式，又称“克莱因”公式： Pp=（C+E+M）×（S+W） 即：国家力量=[（人口+领土）+经济能力+军事能力 ] ×（战略意图+影响国家战略的意志） 三、权力在国际关系中的作用 在什么样的情况下国家的权力作用受到限制，归纳西方学者的观点，主要表现在以下几方面： 第一，权力的应用必须和国家利益相吻合。 第二，一个国家在国际社会中发挥作用的最重要因素，是这个国家权力因素中的外交因素。 第三，国家的权力受到名誉和道德的限制。

余岚0528 · 发表于 2006-5-27 00:47:03

第三论 冲突论 一、冲突的概念 冲突论与利益论、权力论一起，被称作国际关系理论（特别是现实主义）的三个核心理论和研究方法。 冲突的基本含义包括： 1、 冲突是指某一可确认的人或群体，有意识地反对一个或几个可以确定的人或群体，原因是它们各自在谋求不同的目标。 2、 冲突是人与人之间的相互作用。 3、 冲突的形式有暴力的和非暴力的，有显性的和隐性的，有可控制的和不可控制的，有可解决的和不可解决的。 4、 正如在世界上总是充满矛盾的情况一样，冲突存在于宇宙万物之中。 二、冲突论研究的历史回顾 关于冲突的研究至今主要分为两派。 一派是社会心理学家、生物学家和决策理论研究家，他们对冲突的研究主要是从微观的角度，从对个人的行为分析来研究冲突的出现和产生。 另一派是社会学家、人类学家、政治学家和国际关系理论家，他们主要是从宏观的角度把握冲突，他们研究的集中点主要是在集团、社会阶级、民族国家和国际体系等方面。 学者认为，冷战是战后的一种特殊国际现象，而造成冷战的根本原因， 一是由于战后出现两个对抗的阵营，实现真正的和平是“不可能的事”。 二是由于核武器的出现又使新的战争成为“不太可能发生的事”。 冷战即是“不可能的”和平和“不太可能的”战争两个特殊的历史因素的产物，而拥有毁灭双方能力的核武器则是重要的条件。 对于冷战起源的分析可以归纳为以下四种： 第一，冷战的出现是由于国家领导人的变化。 第二，冷战的出现是由于苏联在东欧的扩张。 第三，冷战的出现是美国在第二次世界大战后对世界扩张的结果。 第四，冷战的出现是由于美国和苏联在处理国家之间的关系上，不是以国家利益而是以意识形态作为出发点，在这样的情况下，美国与苏联意识形态的不相容导致冷战爆发。 三、国际冲突的根源分析：华尔兹的三个概念 一般来说，国际冲突的根源与以下五个方面因素有关： 1、人性中的权力欲所致。 2、国家之间误解和隔阂，以及狭隘的民族主义所致。 3、贫困及财富分配不均所致。 4、国家内部危机所致，该国企图挑起外部冲突以转移国内视线。 5、 国际体系不健全，缺乏制止冲突和战争的有效机制。

余岚0528 · 发表于 2006-5-27 00:48:12

分析冲突最有用的出发点是华尔兹提出来的。 华尔兹在《人、国家与战争》（1959）一书中提出的“三概念”是： 第一概念为“人性与国际冲突”，人的私念和权欲是国际冲突的根本原因。 第二概念为“国家与国际冲突”，国家体制弊端日显，社会矛盾深化，为了加强对国内的控制，统治集团往往从对外冲突或战争寻找出路，这是国际冲突的重要内在原因。 第三概念为“国际体系与国际冲突”，国际社会处于无政府状态，事端多发，一筹莫展，这是国际冲突和战争发生的外部原因。 在第一概念中，华尔兹指出，人类本性是恶的，恶的本性决定人类必然要发动战争。 这一概念分析的结论是：“人的罪恶后不轨行为将导致战争；人心——世人如都能具善心，就会出现和平，这就是第一概念的简短结论。 在第二概念中，他分析了国家内部的政治制度，认为国家内部政治的缺陷也是战争的一个根源，国家有时会通过国际真正来解决国内的矛盾。在如何对国家进行改造的研究上，华尔兹认为，“马克思和马克思主义标志着第二概念的最成熟的发展阶段。” 事实证明，华尔兹关于资本主义是战争的根源和社会主义国家之间比不能完全避免战争的判断是正确的。 如果不能仅仅从人和国家来解释战争的根源，还有哪些因素是真正的根源呢？ 华尔兹由此引出了他的第三概念：国际的无政府状态是引起战争的根源。 华尔兹把建立未来世界和平和避免战争的希望寄托在建立世界政府上。他预言，在世界政府建立之后，国家之间的战争就不会再发生了，但是由于世界政府还不够强大，国内的战争还会出现。 四、国际冲突的类型分析：康恩的“升级模式” 国际冲突的类型，分为五类： 一般冲突、国际危机、恐怖活动、内战与革命、国际战争（局部和世界战争） 1962年美国军事战略理论家 赫尔曼·康恩 针对朝鲜战争和越南战争失利的教训，提出“逐步升级”的国际军事冲突模式。1965年他在《逐步升级战略》一书中进一步将冲突、危机和战争的过程分为7个门槛，7个阶段和44个阶梯。 国际冲突的解决途径： 1、 政治解决途径，包括国家之间的谈判、协商、斡旋、调停。 2、 法律解决途径，以国际法庭为主进行的调解、仲裁和裁定等。 3、 行政解决途径，指联合国等国际组织所作的各种努力。

余岚0528 · 发表于 2006-5-27 00:49:44

<span style="FONT-SIZE: 8.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">第四论 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 8.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">均势论<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">一、什么是均势<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">均势理论是西方国际关系学中影响最大、历史最久的传统理论，在国际关系实践中对西方国家对外政策的影响也最为显著。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">不管均势概念的界定有多么大的歧义，在西方学术界和国际关系理论界，大致有以下几种被大多数学者认同的见解：<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> 1<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">、 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">均势是表示一种力量的均衡。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> 2<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">、 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">均势是国际斗争中一种特殊的稳定状态。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> 3<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">、 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">均势是处理国际关系的一种特殊手段。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> 4<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">、 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">均势是处理国际关系的一种特殊政策。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">二、均势的模式<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">摩根索概括为两种模式，其一是<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">直接对抗式<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">，其二是<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">竞争式<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">戈登斯坦认为，均势有三个必不可少的条件：<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">其一是无政府结构；其二是最少有两个行为体；其三是各行为体的目标应是维护自身的生存安全。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">三、均势论的历史轨迹<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">从<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">1648<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">年（威斯特伐利亚和平）到<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">1789<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">年（巴黎革命）的这一时期被称之为均势理论发展的<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">黄金时代<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">从<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">1815<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">年维也纳体系到<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">1914<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">年第一次世界大战爆发，欧洲的均势持续了一个世纪，历史进入了第二个均势的黄金时期。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">

余岚0528 · 发表于 2006-5-27 00:50:30

<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">四、四种均势和当代均势理论<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">现实主义大师们认为，<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">19<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">世纪以来的均势呈现四种主要的类型：<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> 1<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">、 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">欧洲均势（<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">1814-1815<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">年维也纳会议至第一次世界大战爆发），这一时期被称为欧洲的<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">和平世纪<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">，当时的均势不是全球性的，仅局限于欧洲范围。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> 2<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">、 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">过渡性全球均势（两次大战之间），随着资本主义发展到帝国主义阶段，列强冲突扩展到全球，均势格局开始冲出欧洲，带有全球性的特点。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> 3<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">、 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">两极均势（二战后至<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">60<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">年代中期），反映美苏和东西方之间的冷战态势，影响波及全球。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> 4<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">、 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">全球多极均势（<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">60<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">年代中期以后），反映美苏和东西方之间的缓和关系和全球相互依存的发展趋势。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">稍后出现的传统主义学派和现实主义学派一样，也强调均势理论的重要性，认为<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">各国安危系于均势<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">斯坦利<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">·<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">霍夫曼认为，历史上出现的均势是<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">简单均势<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">，当代的均势是<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">复合均势<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">，是由美苏中日和西欧组成的一种<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">五种体系<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">，其特点是<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">均势在全球范围内展开；呈现为核竞争和核对峙<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> 20<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">世纪<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">60<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">年代末、<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">70<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">年代初崛起的科学行为主义学派是均势理论的修正派或称反对派。该派代表人物卡尔<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">·<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">多伊奇认为，在力量不完全均衡情况下，集体安全比均势更显得重要，前者强调国家只不过是 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">国际关系的行为者之一，反对均势理论视国家为唯一的行为者；强调联系和沟通，所以该学派亦称沟通学派。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> 70<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">年代后期的新现实主义学派基本上沿袭了现实主义和传统主义关于均势的观点，同时该学派也提出了一些新的见解。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">

余岚0528 · 发表于 2006-5-27 00:51:14

<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">约瑟夫<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">·<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">奈和罗伯特<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">·<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">基欧汉于<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">1978<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">年发表的《权力与相互依存》就主张将现实主义的权力均势论与科学行为主义的相互依存论融合为一种新的理论<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">——“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">复合相互依存<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">，来解释当今世界错综复杂的国际关系，以弥补均势理论的不足。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">均势理论的特征：<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">首先，西方均势理论的基本目标是<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">寻求权势<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">其次，实力是均势的基础，所以均势又被称为<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">实力均势<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">再次，随机变换联盟是实施均势的重要手段。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">此外，西方均势理论学派还认为，形成均势需要一个中心均衡机制，这一均衡机制无疑只有拥有实力的强国来充当。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 8.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">第五论 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 8.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">霸权稳定论<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">一、概念及其内涵<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">霸权稳定论最早由美国经济学家金德尔伯格于<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">20<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">世纪<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">70<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">年代提出，它是<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">现实主义学派的一个分支<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">。基欧汉为该理论奠定了基础。从<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">70<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">年代后期起，莫德尔斯基、吉尔平将该理论扩展到军事、安全等领域，强调霸权国的存在有利于国际体系的稳定。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">二、内容及其实质<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">霸权稳定论的主要内容，是首先承认国际关系具有激烈竞争的性质，现代民族国家是一部战争机器，国家安全和政治利益是第一位的。如果没有霸权国提供有利的政治和经济环境就很难有一个安定的国际秩序，所以霸权的存在就意味着国际政治与经济秩序的存在；无霸权的存在国际社会处于无规则的混乱状态，在这种状态中，大规模的战争很容易爆发，国际经济体系将会解体，造成全球政治混乱、经济衰退。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">三、关于霸权稳定论的评判<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> 1<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">、根据基欧汉和吉尔平的界定，霸权是<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">一个单一国家<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">统治国际体系的结构，当他们在评价霸权的历史范例时，都以英国和美国霸权为依据。然而，将霸权限定在一国统治全球就具有很大的片面性。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> 2<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">、霸权稳定论实质上是一种强权说，也就是列宁指出的帝国主义政策，<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">公益<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">和<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">搭便车<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">说掩盖了大国剥削弱国和小国的实质。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">

余岚0528 · 发表于 2006-5-27 00:51:30

3、霸权稳定论断定霸权国家实力越强，国际体系就越稳定；当霸权国实力开始下降，国际社会的稳衡状态就会开始向非稳衡状态发展并随着霸权体系的解体而失衡，最终出现无秩序的局面。换句话说，霸权国越是强大，国际冲突就越少，霸权国越衰弱，国际冲突则越多，然而事实并非如此。 4、霸权稳定论有许多错误的假设之处，该理论只是以点代面，特殊性取代普遍性。历史上存在过许多霸权国，在新老霸权交替时，人类付出了巨大甚至是灾难性的代价，相对稳定的局面不是霸权的结果，而是均势成功运用的成果。 四、霸权稳定论与领导长周期论 莫德尔斯基的“领导长周期论”和吉尔平的“霸权稳定论”本质上没有太大的区别。 莫德尔斯基认为，战争既是世界霸权兴衰不断循环所依赖的必要条件，同时也是这种周期性转变的结果。他按照大国间力量的强弱，尤其是一国的海军力量是否大于其他国的海军力量的总和来确定霸权国家，并据此把500年来的国际政治划分为五个世纪性周期（1495-2030），每个周期又分为世界国家、非正统性、非集中性和全球战争四个阶段。在每一个周期中都有一个霸权国家，它们依次是16世纪的葡萄牙、17世纪的荷兰、18和19世纪的英国、20世纪的美国。 除吉尔平和莫德尔斯基外，美国著名学者沃勒斯坦也提出了霸权周期论，这种理论强调世界经济在国际体系中的作用，认为世界经济的持续膨胀、经济增长的扩大以及地理上的扩展是国家建设、霸权兴起和大国战争的主要推动力。沃勒斯坦依据一国在生产总量、商业和金融三方面所处的国际地位把霸权周期分为四个不同的阶段： 霸权全胜期、霸权成熟期、霸权衰落期和霸权上升期。 他把霸权周期理论与国际冲突结合起来，认为在霸权的全胜期和成熟期，国际体系井然有序，大国间冲突最少，而在霸权的衰落期和上升期，由于新的挑战国家不断出现，国家间竞争激烈，大国间冲突最多和最强。由于经济是决定霸权兴衰的主要因素，因此，沃勒斯坦认为，战争是霸权国家保持经济优势地位的最终手段。

余岚0528 · 发表于 2006-5-27 00:51:49

<span style="FONT-SIZE: 8.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">第六论 <span style="FONT-SIZE: 8.5pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">博弈论<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">一、研究<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">合理行为<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">的策略和方法<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">博弈论是科学行为主义学派极为推崇的一种理论框架，它包含研究<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">合理行为<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">的策略和方法，是游戏规则和策略选择的统一。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> 20<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">世纪<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">50<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">年代以后，国际关系理论学者在运筹学的博弈概念基础上综合运用心理学、统计学、社会学和策略学等原理，逐步形成国际关系学的博弈论。他们强调指出<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">博弈论既是研究国际冲突的策略理论，又是处理国际关系的实际手段，其目的是为行为者在面临冲突和危机时设计各种合理选择和理性行为。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">二、<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">博弈模式<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">：<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">谁是懦夫<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">”<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">与<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">囚徒困境<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">” <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">博弈基本的形式有零和博弈和变数博弈两种，一般又分为两方零和博弈、多方零和博弈、两方变数博弈和多方变数博弈。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">零和博弈又称<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">谁是懦夫<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">” <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">博弈，指一方所失即他方所得。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt"> <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">变数博弈又称<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">“<span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">囚徒困境<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">” <span style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Tahoma; mso-hansi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">博弈，指双方或各方得失不等。<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt">

余岚0528 · 发表于 2006-5-27 00:52:04

第七论 合作论 一、时代的折射 世界进入20世纪70年代后，国际关系格局发生了重大变化： 美国霸主地位日显衰落，美苏关系从冷战转为缓和，欧洲出现经济复苏和政治联合，日本实现经济起飞，直到苏联解体、冷战结束，国际经济关系中从战后一国主导到多国调节的过程和国际政治关系中从两极走向多极的发展过程同时得到加速，这一时代背景使国际合作成为当今世界的主潮流。国际关系的合作理论正是对这一时代根本特征的折射。 二、基欧汉的“霸权后合作论” 该理论由罗伯特·基欧汉在《霸权之后——世界政治经济中的合作与斗争》中提出。 针对美国昔日霸主地位的丧失和现实政策与战略的调整，基欧汉强调说“最关键的问题是组织好在霸权不复存在条件下的合作，即霸权后合作”。 三、奥伊等人的“无政府状态下的合作论” 该理论主要反映在肯尼思·奥伊主编的《无政府状态下的合作》一书中，他们指出，战后国际关系虽发生了很大的变化，但世界范围的无政府状态的实质仍未改变，国际社会处于令人不满的但又无可奈何的无政府状态中，因此，当务之急是寻找在无政府状态下国际合作的新途径和新形式。他们认为，无政府状态下合作实际上是霸权后合作的重要补充和发展，而霸权后合作实质上是一种新的无政府状态下的合作。 四、阿克塞尔罗德的“合作模式论”与海伦·米尔纳的“国家间合作理论”。

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当代西方国际关系理论（倪世雄）后六章详细总结

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