Death of a leader

tauringhuang.

Aug 20th 2008
From the Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire

The ruling party in Zambia faces a difficult period of succession


Zambia faces an uncertain political environment after the death of the president. The ruling party is divided—but so is the opposition.

On August 19th the Zambian government announced the death of the president, Levy Mwanawasa—some seven weeks after the head of state's demise was first reported. Mr Mwanawasa suffered a serious stroke at the end of June, and reports of his death were widespread—to the extent that the South African president held a minute's silence for his Zambian counterpart. At the time cynics suggested that it was in the interests of the ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) to prolong the handover process, because of the difficulty of selecting a successor in a party that represents numerous interest groups, religions and ethnic backgrounds, and is not bound together by any core philosophy. If so, the MMD mishandled the situation, since most of its leaders and supporters adopted a wait-and-see stance.

Who's next?
Following Mr Mwanawasa's death, a presidential poll must be held within 90 days; this is likely to be preceded by an emergency MMD convention, the results of which are far from guaranteed. The vice-president, Rupiah Banda, who has taken over as acting leader, is believed to be acceptable to both the Bemba and Tonga ethnic groups within the party, but at 71 years old his succession is not a long-term solution. Elements within the ruling party are therefore likely to press for the adoption of a different presidential candidate. This presents a number of problems for the MMD—not least the fact that it does not have a president or vice-president at present. (Mr Banda is the national vice-president, not the MMD vice-president.) In the absence of these two figures the MMD constitution vests powers in the general secretary, while the party chairman remains largely a symbolic figure. However, the current general secretary, Katele Kalumba, faces corruption charges, which have undermined his position. The MMD chairman, Michael Mabenga, also commands little respect after a court found him guilty of improper conduct and annulled his initial election to parliament in 2001 when he allegedly used constituency development funds for an election campaign. With the top two senior officials facing challenges to their integrity, the MMD is likely to have severe difficulties agreeing on a presidential candidate. The well-respected finance and national planning minister, Ng’andu Magande, will have many supporters, while more populist figures, including Katele Kalumba, will also have a strong chance.

It is also entirely possible that the MMD will not be able to agree upon a new presidential candidate, and break apart. The opposition could capitalise on this turn of events, with the most likely beneficiary being Michael Sata, the leader of the largest opposition party, the Patriotic Front (PF), and runner-up in the 2006 presidential election. Mr Sata is extremely popular with the urban electorate and recently had a well-publicised reconciliation with Mr Mwanawasa after years of mutual hostility. However, the prospect of a Sata presidency would concern the business community, especially foreign investors. Mr Sata has long been critical of the Chinese companies mining in Zambia, previously pledging to drive them from the country if he became president. His rise to power would be likely to cause severe damage to Zambia’s reputation as a favourable location to do business.

What's next?
That said, the PF and other opposition parties are facing their own problems, and the central political scenario at present is a victory for the MMD candidate, backed by the party’s nationwide support network and power of incumbency. Whoever he or she may be, the next president will need to ensure that the improved economic performance of the past few years is more apparent to ordinary Zambians, notably by improving infrastructure and creating employment. The next president also faces the challenge of bringing in a new constitution. The current measure, which gives a high degree of power to the president and to a voting system that favours the incumbent, is deeply unpopular with large sections of the population. Although Mr Mwanawasa was willing to implement reforms, as he was in his second and final term of office, the new leader is likely to be less prepared to erode his or her powers, suggesting that the new constitution is likely to face further lengthy delays.

Against that, Mr Mwanawasa's death could well have a positive impact on economic policymaking, in that certain expenditure commitments require presidential approval and were thus on hold pending the president's recovery or the election of a successor. With the MMD in no hurry to start the succession debate, the risk was that economic policy in Zambia would simply stagnate.