The world steel industry will power ahead in the coming 12 months, with China continuing to play a secondary role to the rest of the world in terms of the rate of output growth, according to projections for the Financial Times by a panel of 16 experts.
根据一个16人专家小组为英国《金融时报》所做的预测,世界钢铁行业将在未来12个月迅猛增长,而在产出增长率方面,相对于世界其它地方,中国将继续扮演次要角色。
This year the rise in steel output is likely to be higher in the rest of the world than in China for the second year in succession.
今年,全球其它地区钢铁产量的增幅,很可能连续第二年超过中国。
If that happens, it would be the first time that such a two-year sequence has taken place since 1973-74.
如果情况真的如此,将是自1973-74年以来中国钢产量增幅首次连续两年低于全球其它地区。
A massive rise in output and consumption by China – now by some way the world’s biggest steel manufacturer with a global share of 44 per cent last year – was the main reason for the big increase in steel production in the early 2000s that acted as a springboard for a sustained rise in steel profits.
如今,中国是全球遥遥领先的最大钢铁制造国,去年占全球总产量的44%。中国的钢铁产量和消费量巨幅增长,是本世纪最初几年全球钢产量大幅增长的主要原因,这种增长推动钢铁业利润持续上升。
This year global output is expected by the panel of experts to climb 6.2 per cent to about 1.5bn tonnes, with an increase of 5.2 per cent in China and 7 per cent by countries outside.
专家们预计,今年全球钢产量将增长6.2%,至大约15亿吨,中国钢产量增长将达到5.2%,世界其它地方将增长7%。
The steel experts said they expected especially large increases in emerging economies such as India and Russia.
钢铁业专家们预计,印度和俄罗斯等新兴经济体,将实现幅度格外巨大的钢产量增长。
Malay Mukherjee, chief executive of the Indian steelmaker Essar, and Sajjan Jindal, chief executive of JSW, said they thought world production in 2011 would rise by 6.8 per cent and 7.2 per cent respectively.
印度钢铁制造商Essar首席执行官马兰•慕柯基(Malay Mukherjee)和京徳勒西南钢铁公司(JSW)首席执行官萨简•金达尔(Sajjan Jindal)分别预计,2011年全球钢产量将增长6.8%和7.2%。
Both reckoned that output in the world outside China would rise by 8.5 per cent – comfortably ahead of what they foresee in China.
他们两人都认为,中国以外的钢产量将增长8.5%,远高于他们对中国钢产量增长的预测。
Last year, steel production rose by 15 per cent, the biggest increase since 1955, with a rise of 9.3 per cent in China and 20 per cent in the rest of the world.
去年,全球钢产量增长15%,达到自1955年以来的最大增幅,其中中国钢产量增长9.3%,全球其它地区增长20%。
However, the slowing in the growth in China comes after several years of big surges, as a result of which the country’s steel output has more than doubled from 2004.
不过,在中国增长放缓之前,该国钢产量曾连续多年猛增,其结果是,中国钢产量自2004年以来已增长一倍多。
Last year’s rise in production followed a slump in 2009 when the industry was hard hit by the recession and production fell by almost 8 per cent.
全球钢产量在去年增长之前,曾在2009年大幅下滑,当时钢铁业受到经济衰退的沉重打击,产量下降近8%。
However, steel industry margins are still some way below the level of 2007 when the sector was going through its China-led boom.
不过,钢铁业的利润率距离2007年水平尚有一段差距,当时该行业正经历着中国引领的繁荣时期。
The jump in production in 2010 was higher than many expected. In a survey of industry opinion organised by the FT a year ago, the average projection of the six experts who gave their views was that output would go up 11.2 per cent, with China pushing up the amount of steel it made by 7 per cent and the rest of the world increasing its figure by slightly more than double this figure.
2010年全球钢产量大幅反弹,超出了许多人的预期。在英国《金融时报》一年前组织的一次行业观点调查中,发表观点的6名专家的平均预测是,全球钢产量将增长11.2%,其中中国钢产量将增长7%,而世界其它地方钢产量的增幅将达到中国增幅的2倍多一点。