汇率问题的政治文章原标题：人民币汇率问题再度来袭

nicholasxw

　　又有戏看了。在经历了夏季的一阵短暂间歇之后，人民币汇率问题迎来了秋季新篇章。
　　本周，美国众议院筹款委员会将召开两场听证会，其中一场将会质询财政部长蒂姆·盖特纳（Tim Geithner）。
　　自北京从6月起解除人民币盯住美元的政策一来，美国国会对事态进展非常不满。北京政府当时的表态已经足以浇熄美国国会的怒火。美国财政部显然送了口气，从而发表了被推迟发布半年度汇率报告，报告再次未将中国列为汇率操纵国，同时也并未引起国会的过度反应。
　　但从此以后，人民币对美元汇率只上升了不到1%，但这相对于大多数人认为的人民币被低估程度来说只是很小一部分。北京似乎的确对外界的担忧开始作出反应--上周人民币汇率小幅上升，以配合奥巴马首席经济顾问拉里·萨默斯(Larry Summers)来华访问。但是，除非白宫每周都拍萨默斯去一趟中国，否则白宫就要想想其他办法来平息国会内的怒火。
　　来自纽约的查尔斯·舒默(Charles Schumer)是参议院第三资深的民主党议员，他一直是国会在人民币问题上的行动领导。根据他提出的议案，美国可以利用对人民币被低估复读的估值来对据信受到补贴的进口货品征收紧急关税。本周，众议院将推出与之相应的议案，有此又将该问题的实际立法历程又往前大大地推进了一步。
　　然而，由于华盛顿政治充满不确定性和复杂性，舒默的议案的前景仍然迷惘。首先，舒默的行动有多少是为了实际目的、有多少是作秀尚不清楚。国会方面的一个普遍看法是，舒默发起的这项运动的一部分原因是因为他想提高自身影响力，他期望有朝一日能够超越哈里·雷德（Harry Reid）成为民主党在参议员的领导者。
　　事实上，这样一份议案的通过会引起中美贸易战、激起美国的跨国公司对民主党的愤怒。通过该议案就像是美国政府所比喻的"追上汽车的狗"--既是达到了目标却不知下一步要干什么。其实，比起制定一项可能不起作用、甚至适得其反的法律，不断制造噪音、威胁立法能够为当事人赢得更多的政治资本。
　　同时，众议院里与舒默相对应的人物--桑德·莱文（Sander Levin）一直对人民币汇率失衡对美国制造业的影响颇有抱怨。但目前多亏舒默牢牢把握了主动权，莱文发现自身已处在一个不同寻常的位置上--使众议院成为节制好斗的参议院的一支理性的力量。
　　美国的失业率越高、对中国的愤怒越强烈，则莱文的立场就越是难以为继。共和党人对于汇率立法的怀疑要强烈得多。如果共和党人在11月的中期选举中夺回众议院多数席位，那么汇率立法获得通过的希望会更加渺茫。
　　奥巴马政府想要知道其在多大程度上能够阻挡这一不明智的立法。到目前为止，总的来说是奥巴马政府扮"红脸"，主张谨慎行事，而舒默则扮"白脸"。当面临实际决策时，奥巴马政府习惯性地回避与中国的直接对抗。最近奥巴马政府拒绝了一项请求，该请求要求调查汇率低估在核准紧急关税中的作用。
　　精心策划总会带来好处。当盖特纳在6月接受参议院金融委员会质询时，他似乎并不像后来那样愿意压制国会对中国政府的怒火。盖特纳并没有劝说参议员们保持冷静，相反，他还警告中国不要激怒美国国会。在此9天后，中国宣布取消人民币盯住美元政策。很可能盖特纳举得本周故伎重演能够促使中国方面加快人民币升值速度。这个方法至少要比萨默斯访华来的便宜。
英文原文：

Beijing currency saga returns
　　By Alan Beattie in Washington
　　Published: September 12 2010 22:26 | Last updated: September 12 2010 22:26
　　Here we go again. After a brief hiatus over the summer, the Chinese currency saga is returning for its fall season.
　　This week, the House of Representatives' ways and means committee will convene two hearings, one of which will question Tim Geithner, Treasury secretary.
　　Congress is deeply unhappy with the progress made since Beijing unpegged the renminbi from the dollar in June. At the time, the concession was enough to damp down congressional ire. An almost visibly relieved US Treasury was able to publish its delayed twice-yearly currency report, which once again held back from naming China as an exchange rate manipulator, without sustaining too much fire from Capitol Hill.
　　Since then, though, the renminbi has been allowed to rise less than 1 per cent against the dollar, a small fraction of most estimates of its undervaluation. True, Beijing did appear to acknowledge these concerns by allowing a moderate upward jump last week to coincide with the visit of Larry Summers, Barack Obama's chief economic adviser, to Beijing. But unless the White House embarks on a strategy of sending Mr Summers to China every week, it needs to find ways of controlling the anger in Congress.
　　The congressional campaign has been led by Charles Schumer of New York, the third most senior Democrat in the Senate. His bill would allow the US to use estimates of currency undervaluation when imposing emergency tariffs on imports deemed to be subsidised. This week, the House will produce its counterpart bill, moving the prospect of actual legislation another stride closer.
　　Yet, the prospects for Mr Schuer's bill remain mired in the uncertainty and complexities of Washington politics. First, it is not clear how far Mr Schumer's campaign is serious intent and how much is theatre. A common view on Capitol Hill is that the crusade is partly inspired by a desire to raise his own profile in the hope of one day succeeding Harry Reid as Democratic leader in the Senate.

　　Actually passing a bill that triggers a trade war with China and further stokes the wrath of American multinational companies with the Democrats would represent, as the evocative Washington expression has it, the dog that caught the car. There is more political capital to be gained out of continually making noise and threatening legislation than there is from enacting a potentially ineffective and counterproductive law.
　　Meanwhile, Mr Schumer's counterpart in the House of Representatives, Sander Levin, has long complained about the effect of Chinese currency misalignment on American manufacturing. Yet, at the moment, thanks to Mr Schumer seizing the initiative, he finds himself in the unusual position of having the House act as a voice of judicious reason moderating a combative Senate.
　　The more that unemployment stays high and anger with China grows, the more that position looks unsustainable. Republicans are much more sceptical of currency legislation. So if, as now seems quite likely, the Republicans retake the House of Representatives in November's midterm elections, the window of opportunity to pass legislation is limited.
　　The Obama administration will also be wondering how far it can afford to try to stand in the way of legislation it regards as misguided. Hitherto it has generally played good cop to Mr Schumer's bad cop, urging caution. And when faced with an actual decision it has usually eschewed direct confrontation with China. Recently it turned down a request to investigate the use of currency undervaluation when calculating emergency tariffs.
　　Careful choreography might pay dividends. When Mr Geithner appeared before the Senate finance committee in June, for example, he looked much less willing than hitherto to stand in the way of the torrent of wrath directed at Beijing. Rather than counselling calm to the senators, he warned China of the dangers of an angry Congress. Nine days later, Beijing announced its unpegging of the renminbi. Mr Geithner might well feel that a repeat performance this week might induce Beijing to allow a faster appreciation. It would at least be cheaper and faster than putting Mr Summers back on an airliner.
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