外交政策：中国的意愿联盟 摘译：参考消息； 补译：@Freeman7777

CampusHR

对西方来讲，失败国家是一个问题。但是对中国来讲，它们却是一种机会。


　　你现在或许听说过，中国试图包揽世界偏远角落的能源和矿产资源的做法令众多从事社会改良事业的理想主义者心痛不已，后者正努力把这些世界上最脆弱的国家转变成稳定、繁荣的国家。从世界银行行长到U2乐队主唱博诺，大家都对中国公司和政府官员提出了批评，称他们对西方在世界南方国家艰难取得的成就构成威胁，同时警告这些国家，接受中国的馈赠会带来可怕的后果。
　　赞比亚经济学家Bob Sichinga等评论人士甚至指责北京以其对自然资源投标的方式“在肆意损害”非洲。我把这称为“中国效应”——这是一个令人不安的概念：西方引导的发展效应可能会被放弃，化为乌有，因为非洲国家受到了轻松获得大量资金以及经济迅速发展的诱惑。这种吸引力有多大显而易见：在美国和欧洲指导者忙于为第三世界独*者讲授良好政府管理和透明度的同时，中国工程师却在修建通往独*者周末度假邸宅的高速公路。
　　比较鲜为人知的是，诸如巴西、哈萨克斯坦、尼日利亚、南非和委内瑞拉这些国家在中国的外交博弈中正发挥着关键作用。在过去15年里，在西方几乎无人关注的时候，北京组建了一个国家联盟，其中许多是非洲国家。可以确信，他们会在越来越呈现小团体化趋势的各个国际论坛上投票赞成中国的路线。该集团让人想起了苏联在冷战时期召集的集团，不过中国聚焦于经济和贸易优势，而不是苏联当年所关注的安全问题。
　　到目前为止，中国的战略是奏效的，尤其是在北京不承认台湾为独立国家的问题上。例如，2008年，马拉威就宣布它中断了与台湾的外交关系；台北当局所援助的金额无法与中国所提供的60亿美金援助相匹敌。塞内加尔在2005年时与台北当局断交，与中国签署了一项协议，据说得到了来自中国包括初步金额为6亿美元的金融援助.乍得在与中国官员进行了一系列的秘密会议和获得了一笔未公开金额的援助之后，也跟台湾官方断交了。如今，只有4个非洲国家仍然承认台湾是中国的真正代表；在全球范围内，承认台湾的国家从最多时期的68个降至目前的23个。巴掌马和尼加拉瓜属于仅有的几个仍然正式承认台湾的国家，但在2007年台湾加入世界卫生组织的投票中， 这两国却放弃了投票。对台北当局友善的国家清单正快速趋向于零。
　　北京当局不只是拉拢被美国忽视或有时故意避开的国家，在全球与其结成联盟；北京当局还企图改变、至少分化那些仍留在西方阵营的国家心中的忠诚感。在美国官员看来，北京的新盟友都是绝对的第三梯队，对白宫和国务院而言是可有可无的(等到爆发危机爆发才会想起这些国家的重要性)。但在中国看来，这些国家正在逐渐成为越来越有用的外交武器。
　　欧洲对外关系委员会称，在联合国，支持中国在人权问题上立场的国家从2000年的50%增至2008年的74%。该委员会还发现，有41个国家10年前在联合国人权议题上投票时是站在西方一边的，现在却支持中国和俄罗斯。从非洲到亚洲再到拉丁美洲，这其中包括一些众所周知的中国商业伙伴，一些在失败国家指数上表现最平庸的国家。在这些国家中，许多都已经加入了强烈支持传统主权的行列，传统的主权观是一个对北京当局来讲极为重要的观念，因为它恐惧和不满西方国家干涉它的国内事务。在这个议题上对中国和俄罗斯所持立场表达支持的国家在近些年已经超过80%了。
　　在世贸组织(WTO)，中国也采取了这种制胜公式。北京已经在WTO内部召集了一个非洲联盟，其规模大到足以破坏北京所反对的特定规则。但是中国在日内瓦正在寻找的战略奖励是作为一个市场经济的官方地位，市场经济国家是一个非常有价值的法律和贸易称号，能阻止其他国家免于发动反倾销案件。如果北京当局的外交官可以智取美国和欧盟外交代表，中国成功获得市场经济称号的话（美国和欧盟指控中国采取不公平的竞争做法和不充分的破产法以及知识产权保护法），那么中国公司就将准备赚取到几十亿美金。埃及，俄罗斯，南非，委内瑞拉，以及其他数十个国家已证明乐意延长在双边条款上对中国延长“市场经济”这种称号以交换中国对这些国家所做的接触。现在，中国的目标是要非洲、拉美国家那里凑齐足够的WTO投票权，以看到在全球范围扩大这种保护——与此同时中国与印度联手搞垮了多哈贸易谈判，这个谈判假如谈成功那么一大堆廉价出口品将严重威胁到中国农民的生计，这是中国政府不愿意见到的事情。
　　在许多规模较小、没有邀请美国和欧盟加入的多边组织内部，中国正在阔步迈进。这些组织并不引人注意，比如东亚峰会、中非合作论坛以及上海合作组织。在这些 场合下，中国官员毫不迟疑地把软实力和部分硬实力结合起来。一些非洲和亚洲国家的大使私底下表示，中国利用援助和贸易作为优势，要求他们不理会美国的提议。如果这些国家不遵从北京的意愿，或当被问起时不愿放弃的话，那么他们的经济项目可能会处在危险当中。
　　中国眼下的目标不是要在军事方面挑战西方，甚至也不是在经济方面向西方发起挑战。毕竟，美国和欧洲是中国出口经济的命脉。然而，我们不应当对中国的努力嗤之以鼻，认为不过 是老练地照搬苏联的失败做法，试图拉拢世界上的南方国家。中国是资本主义的发电机，不是摇摇欲坠的自给自足型国家，中国的市场—威权主义体制作为一种榜样正在全球迅速赢得拥趸——与此同时，三百年来贯穿于西方进步过程中的价值观则受到了忽视。
　　*译者注：意愿联盟是指美伊战争中美国游说30多个国家组成的联盟。

英文原文：


　　Beijing's Coalition of the Willing
　　For the West, failed states are a problem. For China, they're an opportunity.
　　BY STEFAN HALPER | JULY/AUGUST 2010
　　 You've probably heard by now that China, in its bid to lock in access to energy and mineral riches in far-flung corners of the world, is causing heartburn for the legions of do-gooders working to turn the world's most fragile countries into stable, prosperous states. Everyone from the president of the World Bank to Bono has blamed Chinese companies and government officials for threatening the hard-won progress the West has made in the global south, while warning of dire consequences for countries on the receiving end of Chinese largesse.
　　Commentators such as Zambian economist Bob Sichinga have even accused Beijing of "raping" Africa in its bid for natural resources. I call it the China effect -- the disturbing notion that Western-led development efforts could come to naught, cast aside by the allure of fast money and rapid economic progress. And it's easy to see the appeal: While U.S. and European gurus are busy lecturing Third World autocrats about good governance and transparency, Chinese engineers are building highways to the dictators' weekend homes.

　　
　　 More... What's less well known is the key role such states as Brazil, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, South Africa, and Venezuela are playing in China's international diplomatic game. Over the past decade and a half, while few in the West were paying attention, Beijing has built a coalition of countries -- a great many of them in Africa -- that can be trusted to vote China's way in an increasingly clogged alphabet soup of international fora. It's a bloc reminiscent of the one the Soviet Union assembled during the Cold War, though focused on economic and trade advantages, not security issues.
　　So far, China's strategy is working, and nowhere more so than with Beijing's campaign to delegitimize Taiwan as an independent state. In 2008, for instance, Malawi announced it had cut diplomatic relations with the island would-be nation; Taipei couldn't match China's offer of $6 billion in aid. Senegal broke relations in 2005, signing an agreement that reportedly included an initial $600 million in financial assistance from China. Chad followed suit after a series of secret meetings with Chinese officials and an undisclosed amount of aid. Today, just four African countries still recognize Taiwan as the one true China: Burkina Faso, Gambia, S?o Tomé and Príncipe, and Swaziland, down from 13 in 1994; the global number has declined from 68 states in 1971 to 23 currently. Even Panama and Nicaragua, two of the few Latin American states that still officially recognize Taiwan, abstained from a vote on its 2007 bid to join the World Health Organization. Taipei's list of friends is headed rapidly toward zero.
　　
　　Money Can Buy Love
　　China isn't just investing in minerals and oil Not only is Beijing building a string of alliances across the globe with countries overlooked and sometimes shunned by the United States, but it also aims to alter, or at least complicate, the loyalties of those still in the Western camp. To U.S. officials, most of Beijing's new allies are decidedly third tier, mere afterthoughts in the West Wing and on the State Department's seventh floor (at least until a crisis breaks out). But to China, they are becoming an increasingly potent diplomatic weapon.
　　At the United Nations, support for Chinese positions on human rights jumped from 50 percent in 2000 to 74 percent in 2008, according to the European Council on Foreign Relations. The council also found that 41 countries that were Western-voting allies on human rights issues in the U.N. 10 years ago now support China and Russia. From Africa to Asia to Latin America, these include a notable list of Chinese commercial partners, some of the most undistinguished performers on the Failed States Index. Many of these same countries have joined to vigorously defend traditional sovereignty -- a notion deeply important to Beijing because it fears and resents Western meddling in its internal affairs. Support for China and Russia on this issue has exceeded 80 percent in recent years.
　　China has also deployed this winning formula at the World Trade Organization (WTO). Within the WTO, Beijing has already put together an African coalition large enough to torpedo specific rules it opposes. But the strategic prize China is seeking in Geneva is official status as a market economy -- a valuable legal and trade designation that prevents other countries from launching anti-dumping cases. Chinese companies stand to gain billions if Beijing's diplomats can outmaneuver the United States and the European Union, which accuse China of unfair competitive practices and inadequate bankruptcy and intellectual-property laws. Egypt, Russia, South Africa, Venezuela, and dozens of other countries have proved happy to extend this designation to Beijing on bilateral terms in return for Chinese engagement. Now, China's goal is to cobble together enough WTO votes from African and Latin American countries to see this protection expanded globally -- while teaming up with India to sink the Doha round of trade talks, which threatens to swamp Chinese farmers with a flood of cheap imports.
　　China is also making great strides within a host of smaller multilateral organizations that don't invite the United States and the European Union to join -- obscure bodies like the East Asia Summit, the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. In these venues, Chinese officials have not hesitated to combine soft power with a bit of muscle. African and Asian ambassadors have made off-the-record statements suggesting that China uses its aid and trade as leverage to make them tilt away from U.S. initiatives. If countries do not toe Beijing's line or don't abstain when asked, their economic projects could be put at risk.
　　China's goal is not to challenge the West militarily or even economically just now. The United States and Europe are, after all, the lifeblood of China's export economy. But we shouldn't dismiss China's efforts as merely a sophisticated reprise of the Soviet Union's failed bid for the loyalties of the global south. China is a capitalist dynamo, not a creaking autarky, and its market-authoritarian example is fast winning adherents around the world -- while marginalizing the values that have informed Western progress for 300 years.
(转载本文请注明“中国选举与治理网”首发)