IMF：全球经济平稳复苏

飞雪寒冰

The global economic recovery is proceeding steadily but with few signs that underlying current account imbalances are being reduced, says the International Monetary Fund.
国际货币基金组织(IMF)表示，全球经济复苏正在稳步推进，但基本层面上的经常账户失衡几无减轻迹象。

In its twice-yearly world economic outlook, released on Monday, the IMF’s forecasts for growth were largely unchanged from the previous update, with world gross domestic product projected to expand by 4.4 per cent this year and by 4.5 per cent in 2012. The IMF was optimistic advanced economies would continue to recover from the global financial crisis, and that many emerging market economies were now above their pre-crisis trends.
IMF周一发表半年度报告《世界经济展望》，其中对全球经济增长的预测与上次报告基本上相同。IMF预计，今年全球国内生产总值(GDP)将增长4.4%，明年增长4.5%。IMF乐观地认为，发达经济体将继续从全球金融危机的打击中恢复过来，而许多新兴市场经济体当前的增长速度已经高于危机前的趋势线。

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飞雪寒冰

Third, the political system seems as dysfunctional as its healthcare. That matters, because for any rich country the challenge of ageing is not primarily economic (there is enough to go around), but political: to find agreement on controlling and allocating the burden. The US is well on the way to squandering its many large advantages.
第三，美国的政治体系似乎与其医疗体系一样功能失调。这很重要，因为对于任何富裕国家，人口老龄化的挑战主要都不是经济方面的（因为有足够的资源可供分配），而是政治方面的——如何就控制和分配医疗负担达成一致。美国拥有众多巨大的优势，但却很有可能把它们白白浪费掉。

飞雪寒冰

And the weight of that ageing group will be lower in the US. UN projections show that, in 2050, for every 100 Americans of working age there will be 35 people over 65. Those ratios will be 47, 55 and 71 for France, Germany and Japan respectively. What is more, the US government’s cost should be lower, since it relies extensively on private sector medicine. The government paid only 49 per cent of US healthcare expense in 2008, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, compared with between 77 and 82 per cent in the peer group.
而老龄化人口在美国所占的比重也将更低。联合国预计，2050年，美国每100个劳动年龄的人口中，将有35人超过65岁。而在法国、德国和日本，这一数字将分别为47人、55人和71。此外，由于美国广泛依赖于私人部门的医疗服务，政府的支出也应该更低。经合组织(OECD)的数据表明，在美国2008年的医疗支出中，政府只负担了49%，而其它富国的负担比例在77%至82%之间。

So why is the US government on course for weaker finances than its peers over the next few decades? First, it starts with a huge fiscal deficit. Second, and more importantly, it has by far the most inefficient healthcare system of any developed economy. The results are unimpressive and the expense is outrageous; in the US, the government spends more per person than governments in countries where care is almost entirely tax funded. Total health spending per capita is more than double the norm for wealthy countries.
那么为什么未来几十年美国政府的财政状况将比其它富国更为疲弱？首先，美国一开始就面临巨额财政赤字。其次，也是更重要的一点，美国的医疗体系目前在所有发达经济体中效率最为低下，效果乏善可陈，费用却高得离谱。相比于医疗支出几乎完全依赖于税收的国家，美国在每个人身上花的钱更多。美国的人均医疗支出是富裕国家一般水平的两倍还多。

飞雪寒冰

Late last year and early in 2011, governments such as Brazil’s blamed the US as well as China for destabilising inflows of capital, saying that very loose “quantitative easing” monetary policy from the Federal Reserve was pushing speculative hot money elsewhere.
去年底至今年初，巴西等国政府指责美国和中国要对破坏稳定的资本流动负责，称美联储的“量化宽松”货币政策正推动投机性的热钱流入世界其他地区。

The complaints, which were rejected by the US, complicated discussions about global rebalancing at the G20 heads of government meeting in South Korea in November.
上述抱怨——美国拒绝接受——曾使去年11月在韩国举行的G20峰会有关全球再平衡的讨论变得复杂。

飞雪寒冰

Olivier Blanchard, IMF chief economist, said co- operation between the G20 leading economies to reduce imbalances had become much harder than the emergency measures taken during the crisis. “The process of negotiation within the G20 is much more difficult now,” he said. “Countries have their own agendas and they don’t always fit.”
IMF首席经济学家奥利维尔•布兰查德(Olivier Blanchard)表示，20国集团(G20)成员国在减轻失衡方面的合作，比起危机期间出台紧急措施时困难得多。“G20内部的谈判进程如今困难得多，各国都有各自的议程，而这些议程并不总能相互配合。”

Economies such as Brazil, Colombia, South Africa and Turkey have seen upward pressure on their exchange rates, as other emerging markets such as China continued to hold down currencies for competitive reasons.
巴西、哥伦比亚、南非和土耳其等经济体的汇率面临上升压力，而中国等其他新兴市场出于竞争原因仍在继续压低本币汇率。