分析：中国贸易数据

飞雪寒冰

Chinese trade figures released on Thursday showed a surprise deficit in February, as the Lunar New Year pushed up imports and weighed on exports. The deficit came in at $7.3bn compared to an expected surplus of $4.95bn, according to Reuters.
中国周四发布的贸易数据显示，由于中国春节的影响，进口增加而出口下降，2月份贸易意外出现了逆差。根据路透(Reuters)的数据，2月份中国出现了73亿美元的贸易逆差，而原本预期将出现49.5亿美元的顺差。

A closer reading of the NPC runes may well have saved some blushes.
更仔细地解读中国人大年会期间的报道，很可能会减少一些尴尬。

飞雪寒冰

Small wonder that the Aussie dollar – a common proxy for the renminbi, is the region’s biggest faller – down over 0.5 per cent, while Rmb 12-month forwards are back down to a two week low.
难怪澳元下跌逾0.5%，同时12个月人民币远期再度跌至两周低点。澳元通常被作为人民币的替身，目前澳元是亚太地区跌幅最大的货币。

飞雪寒冰

worth noting that the rising oil price could well have prompted an increase in Chinese buying, as Leslie Hook noted in her piece on the recent oil spike.
同时有必要指出，油价不断上涨很可能促使中国增加了购买量，正如何丽(Leslie Hook)在其关于最近油价飙升的文章中所指出的那样。

One swallow doesn’t make a summer. More monthly deficits will be needed in coming months to show a real change in China’s trade balance. But ignore the signals at your peril. With the renminbi approaching the level of appreciation at which the Chinese manufacturing lobby says it can no longer cope, the focus looks firmly on weaker trade, not a stronger currency.
独木难成林。要想表明中国贸易平衡真正发生了改变，未来几月还需要出现更多的月度赤字。但忽视这些信号则要后果自负。随着人民币汇率接近中国制造业游说集团所说的无法应对的水平，人们关注的重点显然已是贸易疲弱，而非货币升值。

飞雪寒冰

The usual caveat is that this was the month of Chinese New Year – when data predictions become extremely hard to get right. And, data releases during, or ahead of politically sensitive events (state visits, international summits, the NPC) are often closely tied to policy.
通常的解释是：这是受2月份中国春节的影响——这种时候预测数据的难度极大。而且，在政治敏感事件（国事访问、国际峰会和全国人大会议）期间或之前，发布的数据通常与政策紧密相关。

Beijing has the ability to speed up or slow down its commodity imports as a way of nudging the trade balance in a particular direction.
中国政府有能力加快或放缓大宗商品进口，以此作为向特定方向微调贸易平衡的一种方式。

飞雪寒冰

Chen Deming, China’s commerce minister, said just this week that China wanted to ”stabilise exports, grow imports, and shrink the trade surplus.” Meanwhile Yi Gang, the central bank governor, described the renminbi exchange rate against the dollar as being at its “closest to equilibrium”.
就在本周，中国商务部长陈德铭表示，中国希望“稳出口、扩进口、减顺差”。与此同时，中国央行副行长易纲将人民币兑美元汇率描述为“最接近均衡水平”。

Such official statements ahead of big Chinese data releases are often a strong indicator of what’s to come.
在中国发布重大数据之前出现的此类官方言论，往往是对即将出炉数据的有力暗示。