美国政治热点：经济复苏放缓，民主党着力撑持

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奥巴马曾声称他已美国经济走向繁荣，但如今迅速衰退的经济形势使奥巴马的这一论断苍白无力。不过，随着国会中期选举还有不到两个月的时间，民主党发现他们找到了一些重振经济的方法。
　　关于美国经济正丧失活力的最近的迹象是：8月24日的最新统计数据显示，7月美国的房屋出售量下降了27%，这是自1968年有统计数据以来下降得最快的一个月。此前有分析预计了今年春季房屋购买返税措施结束后房屋出售量将会下降，但是实际的下降率比预计的要高出一倍。
　　房屋出售量的统计数据给充斥着一系列坏消息的今年夏季火上浇油。失业率在过去4周内节节攀升，上周更是达到了过去9周内的最高点。私营企业的岗位新增速度远比不上人口增速。零售业销售额也同样令人失望。
　　经济学家都不希望再看到经济再次进入萧条期，虽然很多人都说伴随着每一项令人沮丧的统计数据，经济风险已经在增长。
　　奥巴马和国会民主党议员在疯狂地寻找应对措施，制定出了一系列相对小规模的新方案来加强失业救济、避免大范围裁员、为雇佣失业人员的企业减税。
　　但是，财政赤字猛增，且民意调查显示出民众对奥巴马经济政策的强烈不信任，因此甚至是一些民主党人也不支持继续为经济复苏注资。这就使奥巴马几乎要对改善经济、降低居高不下的失业率（7月失业率已达9.5%）等问题束手无策了。
　　“他们已经用尽了办法，希望已采取的措施能起作用，”一直以来为国会民主党议员提供咨询的穆迪公司首席经济学家马克·詹迪（Mark Zandi）说道。鉴于当下政治环境，詹迪说道，“在未来半年，甚至未来一年，他们找不到什么能真正改变现状的良策。”
　　本周二，共和党迅速抓住了令人沮丧的最新统计数据大做文章。在克里夫兰市[位于美国俄亥俄州，在次贷危机中曾被称为“次贷之都”──译者注]的城市俱乐部举行演讲时，该州众议院大老党[共和党别称──译者注]领袖约翰·伯纳（John Boehner)指责奥巴马“经济刺激计划的投资导致经济停滞，不确定性因素导致经济衰退。”伯纳将11月的中期选举比作是对奥巴马“备受怀疑”的政策的一次全民投票，他敦促总统把手下的经济问题团队全部开除，第一个要解雇的就是财长蒂莫西·盖特纳（Timothy F. Geithner）。
　　“美国人民在问'工作在哪里？'而总统手下所有的经济顾问给出的答案则是对'复苏萌芽'开空头支票，”伯纳说。伯纳注意到奥巴马的预算主管和首席经济学家已经递交了辞呈，他说奥巴马“应当要求并批准其他还在任的经济顾问辞职，”包括盖特纳和美国国家经济委员会主席劳伦斯·萨默斯（Lawrence Summers）。
　　伯纳为扭转经济形势提了一些建议。众议院民主党议员还没有公布他们的详细经济议案，而且伯纳在美国北部工业区为竞选而做的巴士巡讲也没有详述共和党旨在长期减税和减少联邦法规的纲领。
　　美国副总统拜登在奥巴马度假期间接替总统职责，他嘲讽伯纳提出的经济计划是换汤不换药的放任主义政策，这种政策在布什政府后期把美国经济带向了崩溃边缘。“也许伯纳先生怀念过去的好时光，但美国人却并不怀念，”拜登在一次活动中说道，这次活动被认为是在炫耀去年8140亿美元经济刺激计划所取得的成就。

　　拜登的话满含嘲讽，但他也感谢伯纳建议总统解雇经济顾问。“很有建设性的建议，”拜登说，“我们对此表示感谢。”此后，白宫副新闻秘书比尔·伯顿（Bill Burton）为盖特纳和萨默斯进行了辩解，称他们是“做出艰难决策的人，为经济重新运转付出艰辛劳动的人。”
　　今年春季，美国经济呈现出加快复苏的迹象。由布什提出、奥巴马付诸实践的对银行业的7000亿美元救助以及许8140亿美元的经济刺激计划受到了许多经济学家的好评。
　　本周二，无党派的国会预算办公室证实了这种评价，根据预算办公室的估算，这些经济刺激措施为在第二季度为美国创造了330万个就业机会，可能帮助了国家免于陷入经济萧条。预算办公室还指出，到2019年，这一经济刺激计划将花费8140亿美元，低于此前估计的8620亿美元。
　　但是现实情况急转直下。周五，美国商务部将修改对第二季度经济增长情况的评估。有预测认为国内生产总值在4月到6月这一季度同比增长了1.4%──远低于此前预计的2.4%，也低于美国人口增长和生产力增长所需要的2.5%至3%的经济增长率。
　　在第二季度，美国经济复苏不仅没有取得进展，反而在继续衰退。
　　虽然许多民间和政府方面的人士都认为今年下半年美国经济增长率将回升至2.5%，但如果经济恶化，这一共识也将不复存在。而且即使是3%的增长率也不足以从根本上改变目前的失业状况。
　　白宫经济学家贾理德·伯恩斯坦（Jared Bernstein）表示，政府“根本没到束手无策的地步。”他指出去年的一揽子经济刺激计划中还有数十亿美元有待拨出，并简要列举了白宫的一系列政策，其中包括被参议院被共和党否决的一项旨在通过小型企业来促进就业的计划。民主党在参议院的领导人说他们希望等到国会在劳工节[9月第一个星期一]后复会后努力使该议案最终通过。
　　奥巴马也在敦促为投资可再生能源计划和其他绿色改造计划的房屋拥有者实行退税，并为太阳能电池板、风力涡轮机等清洁能源设备生产商提高免税力度。
　　“我们正坚持不懈地通过最有效的手段来创造就业机会，我们的议事日程也的确是在致力于达到这一目标，”伯恩斯坦说。“《复兴法》有助于扭转颓势，而这就是我们现在所努力的。”
　　他承认国会没有批准奥巴马全部的经济刺激投资。但是，他说，“在我们生活的这个世界，我们正尽一切可能来为经济领域的关键部门创造更多的就业机会。”

  
Democrats move to shore up faltering recovery
By Lori Montgomery and Neil Irwin
Tuesday, August 24, 2010; 11:17 PM

A rapidly weakening economy threatens to undermine President Obama's assertion that he has set the nation on a path to prosperity and, with barely two months until congressional midterm elections, Democrats find themselves with few options for reviving the faltering recovery.
The latest sign that the economy is losing steam: Home sales fell 27 percent in July, the steepest one-month drop since figures were first compiled in 1968, according to a report released Tuesday. Analysts had expected sales to decline following the expiration of a federal tax credit for homebuyers this spring, but the drop was nearly twice as large as forecast.
The housing report punctuated a wave of bad news that has been building all summer. The number of jobless claims has risen in each of the past four weeks and last week hit its highest point in nine months. Private-sector job creation is trending well below the level needed to keep up with population growth. Retail sales have also been disappointing.
Economists generally do not expect a dip back into recession, although many say the risk has grown with each new piece of disheartening data.
Obama and congressional Democrats have been working frenetically to counter the trend, winning a series of relatively small initiatives to extend unemployment benefits, avert state layoffs and cut taxes for firms that hire unemployed workers.
But with the budget deficit soaring and polls showing deep skepticism about the impact of Obama's economic policies, even many Democrats are reluctant to support additional spending on the economy. That has left Obama with few alternatives for improving the trajectory of the recovery and reducing a stubbornly high jobless rate, which was stuck in July at 9.5 percent.
"They have played their policy hand, and they've got to hope it's good enough," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics who has been advising congressional Democrats. Given the political environment, he said, "there's nothing they can do to make a significant difference in the next six months, or even a year."
Republicans quickly sought Tuesday to capitalize on the gloomy news. Addressing the City Club of Cleveland, House GOP Leader John Boehner (Ohio) blamed Obama for "an economy stalled by 'stimulus' spending and hamstrung by uncertainty." Casting the November election as a referendum on Obama's "discredited" policies, Boehner urged the president to fire his entire economic team, starting with Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner.
"The American people are asking 'where are the jobs?' and all the president's economic team has to offer are promises of 'green shoots' that never seem to grow," Boehner said. Noting that Obama's budget director and chief economist have already announced their resignations, Boehner said Obama "should ask for - and accept - the resignations of the remaining members of his economic team," including Geithner and Lawrence Summers, head of the National Economic Council.
Boehner offered few ideas for turning the economy around. House Republicans have not released a detailed economic agenda, and Boehner's speech - delivered amid a bus tour of battleground House districts in Rust Belt states - did little to expand on the GOP's long-standing platform of lower taxes and less federal regulation.
Vice President Biden, who stood in for a vacationing Obama, derided Boehner's economic plan as a rehash of the laissez-faire policies the led the country to the brink of a financial meltdown in the final days of the Bush administration. "Mr. Boehner is nostalgic for those good old days, but Americans are not," Biden said during an event called to showcase the success of last year's $814 billion stimulus package.
His voice dripping with sarcasm, Biden also thanked Boehner for suggesting that the president fire his top economic advisers. "Very constructive advice," he said, "and we thank the leader for that."
Later, White House deputy press secretary Bill Burton defended Geithner and Summers, calling them "the people who made the tough decisions, who did the hard work to get the economy going again."
As recently as this spring, the U.S. economic recovery appeared to be accelerating. Many economists gave credit to the stimulus package and the $700 billion bailout of the banking system proposed by Bush and carried out by Obama.
On Tuesday, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office affirmed that view of the stimulus package, estimating that it added as many as 3.3 million jobs to the economy during the second quarter of this year and may have prevented the nation from lapsing into recession. The CBO also said the package will cost about $814 billion through 2019 - less than the $862 billion previously estimated.
But momentum is fading fast. On Friday, the Commerce Department will revise its estimate of second quarter economic growth. Forecasters expect gross domestic product to have risen at a 1.4 percent annual rate during the April through June quarter - far below the 2.4 percent rate first estimated and below the 2.5 to 3 percent level at which the U.S. economy should expand based solely on population growth and increased productivity.
Instead of gaining ground in the second quarter, the United States economy lost ground.
While many private and government forecasters still agree that growth will return to about 2.5 percent for the second half of the year, that consensus could soon change if the economy continues to deteriorate. And even a 3 percent growth rate is not strong enough to significantly bring down unemployment.
White House economist Jared Bernstein said the administration is "by no means out of bullets." He cited billions of dollars that have yet to be spent from last year's stimulus package and ticked off a list of policies the White House is pursuing, including a measure designed to encourage hiring by small businesses that has been blocked by Republicans in the Senate. Democratic leaders in the Senate say they hope to push the bill to final passage when Congress returns after Labor Day.
Obama is also pressing for tax rebates for homeowners who invest in renewable energy projects and other green renovations, as well as for an extension of an existing tax credit for manufacturers of solar panels, wind turbines and other clean-energy equipment.
"We're continuously promoting the most effective ways to create the most jobs, and our agenda is demonstrably working to achieve that goal," Bernstein said. "The Recovery Act contributed to the turnaround from horrifying negatives to positives, and that's the momentum we are trying to build on."
He acknowledged that Congress had not approved all the stimulus money Obama had sought. But, he said, "In the world we live in, we're doing everything we can to create the conditions for greater job growth in key sectors of the economy."
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