经济学人：双英辩论 马英九小胜

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　　几个月来，台湾一直同大陆关起门来商讨自由贸易协议的纲要。因此当台湾地区领导人马英九答应4 月 25 日与民进党主席蔡英文举行辩论时，大家都颇感意外。这是马先生自2008 年就任以来第一次与主张独立的民进党直接接触。代表台湾45%选民的民进党要求举行辩论的呼声由来已久，并将马英九让步同意辩论视为民进党的胜利。面对低迷的支持率和国民党近期的选举失利，马英九希望能为其两岸政策的基石--《两岸经济合作框架协定》（ECFA）--赢得更多的支持。他已将目标签署时间订在了六月。
　　马先生声望下滑，可以追溯到去年那场重创台湾的台风。面对灾民，他显得木讷笨拙，因此一般预期这次辩论对他不利。但事实上，他却表现得淡定而不失亲切。
　　在辩论中，马英九主张台湾别无选择，唯有与其“敌手”和最大的贸易伙伴大陆签署ECFA。来自大陆的压力使台湾险遭边缘化，并几乎完全被排除在全球 272 个自由贸易协议之外，比如今年一月生效的大陆与东盟（ASEAN）的贸易协定。“贸易是我们的生命线，”马英九表示。“没有贸易就没有台湾。”他宣称 ECFA 将鼓励其它国家与台湾签署自由贸易协议。他本人也将亲率一个任务小组推动这项工作。马英九还诉诸民粹，严厉警告北京不要干涉：“我们台湾人身上流着勇敢、务实和进取的血液。”
　　蔡英文女士则希望将民进党与过去的激进路线保持距离，并争取中间选民。她几乎没有触及民进党对大陆吞并（台湾）的恐惧，甚至连该党要求ECFA公投的呼吁都没提到。相反，她只是僵硬地背诵经济议题上的论点，一再要求马英九回答，当廉价的大陆货如潮水般涌入，会有多少人因此失业。
　　她还抨击马先生莽撞冒进。她坚持通过现有世界贸易组织（WTO）架构同大陆慢慢谈对台湾更为有利。今年一月ECFA 谈判刚刚开始。如果六月签署，也只有受中国-东盟条约影响最大的出口商品才能免税。而关于知识产权及投资保障的协议则还没开始协商。而ECFA 的重点在于列出双方未来十年左右促进贸易自由化、规范贸易行为的各项措施。
　　蔡英文还指责马英九破坏地区力量平衡，惊动日本和韩国。但她的攻势却受到民进党历史问题的影响。马英九温和地嘲弄民进党过去危言耸听的蠢话，诸如要是马英九当选，“小孩当兵都要去黑龙江”。
　　民调关于谁是“双英辩论会”的赢家意见不一。不过最起码，马先生成功使其声望止跌反弹。澳洲墨尔本莫纳什大学的台湾问题专家布鲁斯·雅各布斯表示，蔡女士的表现欠佳，民进党高层也在私下向他承认马英九取胜。
　　台湾与北京正在筹备下一步的秘密贸易会谈。最近一次的正式协商是在今年四月初，大陆为了赢得台湾的民心，同意不敦促台湾对 800 多项大陆农产品进口解禁及开放大陆劳工。
　　台湾一开始希望大陆立刻免除约 500 项产品的关税。但随着六月最后期限的迫近，相信谈判者正在对这些产品进行取舍。花旗环球证券台湾研究部主管谷月涵估计现在已经减到 300 项了。
　　真正让六月的最后期限显得十万火急的，是台湾的政治形势。ECFA 必须在争论不休的立法院通过，而年底又有为2012年“大选”定调的大都市市长选举。国民党立委在竞选过程中不便支持这种分歧性问题，然而在那之前他们又必须力挺 ECFA。马先生这次的表现算是让他们稍稍松了口气。
英文原文：

　　Seconds out, round one And the president wins on points
　　Apr 29th 2010 | TAIPEI | From The Economist print edition
　　FOR months Taiwan has been negotiating with China the outlines of a free-trade deal-behind closed doors. So it came as a surprise when Ma Ying-jeou, the president, agreed to a debate on April 25th with Tsai Ing-wen, the leader of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). It was the first time since taking office in 2008 that Mr Ma had directly engaged the pro-independence DPP, which represents around 45% of voters. The DPP had long demanded such a debate and saw Mr Ma's concession as a triumph. Faced with sagging popularity and recent electoral setbacks, Mr Ma hoped to win more support for the Economic Co-operation Framework Agreement or ECFA, the cornerstone of his cross-strait policies. He has set June as his target date for signature.
　　The slump in Mr Ma's popularity can be traced to a deadly typhoon last year. When he met victims, he came across as wooden and awkward. So he was expected to be at a disadvantage in the debate. In fact, he appeared relaxed and genial.
　　He argued Taiwan had no option but to sign the pact with China, both its archenemy and biggest trading partner. Thanks to pressure from China, Taiwan is largely excluded from the world's 272 free-trade agreements, including one between China and the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) that came into effect in January, and risks being marginalised. “Trade is our lifeline,” declared the president. “Without it, there is no Taiwan.” The ECFA, he claimed, would encourage other countries to sign free-trade agreements with Taiwan. He would personally lead a task force to guide this. In a populist touch, Mr Ma sternly warned Beijing not to interfere: “The blood of our Taiwanese is brave, pragmatic and persevering.”
　　Ms Tsai hoped to distance the DPP from its past radicalism and woo centrist voters. She barely touched on her party's fears of annexation by China, or even on the DPP's call for a referendum on the ECFA. Instead, she stiffly recited economic arguments. She repeatedly demanded that Mr Ma tell her how many jobs would be lost to a flood of cheap Chinese goods.
　　She also attacked Mr Ma for being recklessly hasty. Taiwan, she insisted, would do better to negotiate with China slowly, through existing World Trade Organisation structures. The ECFA talks began only in January. Only exports most affected by the China-ASEAN pact are to be freed on signature in June, and agreements on intellectual-property rights and investment-protection are to be negotiated. The main point of the pact is to outline steps the two sides will take to liberalise and regulate trade over the next decade or so.

　　Ms Tsai also accused Mr Ma of upsetting the regional balance of power, alarming Japan and South Korea. But she was hamstrung by the DPP's past. Mr Ma gently ridiculed some of the DPP's sillier scaremongering, such as the claim that, under his rule, young Taiwanese would have to do military service in the northern Chinese province of Heilongjiang.
　　Pollsters disagreed about who won the debate. But, at the least, Mr Ma managed to halt the slide in his popularity. Bruce Jacobs, a Taiwan expert at Monash University in Melbourne, said Ms Tsai performed poorly. In private, DPP leaders admitted to him they thought Mr Ma the victor.
　　Taiwan and Beijing are preparing to hold further secret trade talks. The last round in early April saw China, in an effort to win over the Taiwanese public, agree not to push for the lifting of bans on over 800 Chinese agricultural imports or to allow an influx of Chinese workers.
　　Taiwan originally hoped that around 500 items would be tariff-free at once. But, eyeing the June deadline, negotiators are now believed to be culling items. Peter Kurz, head of Taiwan research at Citigroup's securities' arm, estimates the number may already be down to 300.
　　What gives the June deadline urgency is Taiwanese politics. The ECFA must be approved by the disputatious parliament. Later in the year come important municipal elections that in turn will set the tone for the 2012 presidential poll. During the election campaign, it will be hard for legislators from Mr Ma's ruling Kuomintang, or KMT, to support such a divisive issue. Before then, however, they are expected to rally behind the ECFA. And Mr Ma may have made that a little easier for them.
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