Fighting Swine Flu without a Panic Button

飞雪寒冰

Mankind always has always faced the misfortune of disease. SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) struck not long ago in 2003, while avian flu has been troublesome since 2005, and now the so-called 'swine flu' has triggered a fresh, global public health crisis.

The situation with the latest outbreak of flu -- officially renamed H1N1 -- has eased somewhat. So far, widespread person-to-person transmission has not been reported, and the escalation rate of the disease has slowed. The flu's ravages have been less severe than what experts feared.

Nevertheless, damage done by the disease and possible future harm are still worrying. At the moment, it is easy to go to either of two extremes: indifference, or excessive anxiety. We believe the right thing to do is to stay alert without panicking.

A high alert issued by health authorities is necessary out of concern for human life and public well-being. Without such a reaction, emotions and wishful thinking could overtake science.

At the moment, the data does not make a clear judgment possible. On one hand, the death toll and number of confirmed cases are still climbing; more countries and regions are being affected. No one knows for sure whether the World Health Organization will raise the alert to the highest level 6. On the other hand, the death toll from the disease is below those of SARS and avian flu. And in Mexico, the eye of the storm, the disease is under control and the alert level has been reduced from red (very high) to orange (fairly high) to yellow (medium).

令飞

有必要问鸡蛋是哪个母鸡生的吗？

冬天里的雪碧

想问版主一个问题这是外刊文章还是自己写的？

冬天里的雪碧

谢谢版主！

飞雪寒冰

In sharp contrast with slow, passive, opaque reactions during the SARS epidemic, the Chinese government has adopted timely, effective and highly coordinated mechanisms for examining, monitoring and making provisions for the disease. The government has put an emphasis on reporting and public disclosure of information, prohibiting late, false or sketchy reports, and requiring the dissemination of timely, accurate, up-to-date domestic and international information. We are pleased by this, but we also see how the disease is again posing challenges to inadequate local public health systems. How China's new healthcare reform will proceed deserves our attention.

Influenza has plagued mankind for 2,400 years. Within a century, we've battled lethal flu outbreaks three times – the Spanish flu in 1918, the Asian flu in 1957 and the Hong Kong flu in 1968. Millions of lives were lost. During this long fight against flu, we have found ways to cope with it. The latest outbreak of H1N1 is so intractable that it's in a position to force another fierce fight. Indeed, it may be a difficult and drawn-out battle. 'Staying alert without panicking' is the order of the day. This suggested response refers not only to the degree of attention, but also to a state of mind.

飞雪寒冰

However, high alert does not mean disrupting lives or work routines, or an all-out mobilization. Alarm bells and sirens are metaphors – not emergency orders issued to the general public. Except for seriously infected areas, the government and the public should be watchful without panicking, opting for prevention without confusion. The basic fact is that this disease has not become a pandemic outbreak. Even more important is that preventing and handling the disease is more pro-active, transparent and scientific, and involves more cooperation than during the SARS outbreak six years ago. Thanks to hard work and a consensus reached after the SARS crisis, many countries strengthened the system for disease prevention and control. The ability for coordinated intervention in public health crises has improved. A global flu monitoring framework has borne results. Facing this new type of flu, whether in China or anywhere in the world, we have reason to be more confident in preventing and handling the epidemic.

That the flu epidemic broke out amid a global economic crisis is highly inopportune. This challenges the international community to set priorities. If the economy continues deteriorating, resources for disaster relief will be weakened and an epidemic would undoubtedly hinder economic activity. Some research institutes are trying to estimate the economic impact from this potential pandemic. Due to the uncertainty of the disease itself, their assessments are based on various scenarios. The international community at this point can work together to prevent a global outbreak; its members must also keep watch over costs to the economy when planning preventive measures.

Currently, preventive measures adopted by some countries have come under criticism. Diplomatic spats have surfaced. But we should let science find solutions. For example, is quarantine effective in stemming the spread of this disease? Is it necessary to stop importing pork products from infected areas? Is it necessary to close borders, schools, public venues, etc.? All these issues call for rational consideration. One concern behind drafting the International Health Regulations in 2005 was to avoid 'undue interference' in preventing and controlling an epidemic.

飞雪寒冰

When uncertainty rises, people tend to make judgments based on their own desires. However, nothing can replace science. We know that the culprit H1N1 is a new form of Type A flu virus, which until now was unknown to medical science. Since April 26, when Mexico declared a nationwide health emergency, scientists have analyzed the gene map and discovered the virus shares some genes segments in pigs and birds, but they have not reached conclusions about the virus' origin, how it spreads, the cause of the breakout, or why Mexico was hardest hit. It is even more difficult to predict whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic, or how to minimize the impact.
Based on this trend, we know the virus is continuing to mutate in ways that cannot be predicted. In theory, everyone is susceptible. Although transparency during this potential pandemic has been relatively high, the affected areas are far from China, and the outbreak is not as fierce as SARS was six years ago, the disease spreads with ferocity. Before suffering any symptoms, carriers can pass the virus. That this is a threat to the whole world, including China, cannot be underestimated. Facing this formidable enemy, we are better off taking seriously the danger and threat, raising the alert level, and actively working on prevention and control rather than being blindly optimistic or taking the warnings lightly.