Time’s up, Mr Musharraf

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Aug 14th 2008 | ISLAMABAD
From The Economist print edition

Enemies of Pakistan’s president smell blood


RETIREMENT beckons for President Pervez Musharraf. On August 11th Pakistan’s ruling coalition, led by the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), convened parliament in order to impeach the former dictator. By coincidence, it was his 65th birthday.

The PPP and its main ally, the Pakistan Muslim League (N), or PML (N), have drawn up a charge-sheet against Mr Musharraf. It remained under wraps; yet the government’s leaders have accused the two-time army coupster of subverting the constitution. The PPP’s leader, Asif Zardari, has also accused him of misusing American aid given to fight the war on terror. The government has promised to publish its charge-sheet and launch the impeachment within a few days—if Mr Musharraf does not resign first, as it hoped he would.

For further encouragement, Pakistan’s four provincial assemblies resolved to vote on what amounts to a motion of no-confidence in Mr Musharraf. In Punjab, the base of his political ally, the Pakistan Muslim League (Q), or PML (Q), the motion passed by 321 votes to 25. Over half of Mr Musharraf’s friends there, it transpired, were of the fair-weather type. In North-West Frontier Province, Mr Musharraf picked up four votes; 107 went against him. In Sindh, not one legislator voted for the former general. His “allies” there abstained. Baluchistan, a poor and rebellious province, seething with ill-will against Mr Musharraf, was yet to vote.

At least, this encouraged the government. To impeach the president, it needs two-thirds support in a joint vote of Pakistan’s two-tier assembly. It is not entirely clear that it has this. Yet, after the performance of Mr Musharraf’s allies in the provinces, it seemed that the extra votes required could be found. So, Mr Musharraf’s best hope of survival might be to dissolve parliament—as he has empowered his office to do. He has made similar interventions before: for example, last November, when he declared an emergency in order to muscle through his re-election as president. But he had the support of the army then; it is unlikely he would have it now.

His other staunch ally, America, has also backed away. When the leaders of the two main parties, the PPP’s Asif Zardari and the PML (N)’s Nawaz Sharif, declared their intention to impeach the president on August 7th, a spokesman for America’s State Department called it an “internal matter”. Mr Sharif has implied that America has asked him not to press charges against its old ally. Mr Zardari, to whom Mr Musharraf last year gave an amnesty from corruption charges, might live with this. But Mr Sharif, whom Mr Musharraf ousted as prime minister, imprisoned and then exiled, will give no such assurance.

To avoid being pursued by Pakistan’s courts—which he has done much to wreck—Mr Musharraf might consider retiring outside Pakistan. Local rumour-mongers have proposed many possible destinations: Turkey, America, Saudi Arabia, Britain. But as The Economist went to press, Mr Musharraf, the bluff commando, still refused to quit. If his impeachment proceeds as promised, General Ashfaq Kayani, Pakistan’s army chief, may ask him to revisit that thought: the army, it is said, would consider the impeachment of its former supremo to be undignified.

By uniting against a common foe, the PPP and PML (N) have restored an opportunistic friendship of their own. Traditional rivals, they entered into an alliance after routing Mr Musharraf’s supporters in a general election in February. But cracks appeared in May, after the PPP failed to honour a promise to reinstate some 60 judges, sacked by Mr Musharraf during the emergency. In response, Mr Sharif withdrew the PML (N)’s nine ministers from the government, but not its support. As a mark of renewed co-operation, four of these ministers are to return to work. The other five will join them after the judges are restored—as both party leaders say they will be, once Mr Musharraf is gone.

Perhaps this will happen. But, given the parties’ history of mutual back-stabbing, it may not. If Mr Musharraf is removed, the government will in theory have a month to elect a new president. But it would first try to pare back his powers. This would entail constitutional change, requiring two-thirds support in both houses of parliament. The government does not have this; PML (Q) controls the upper house. This raises the prospect of a protracted squabble between the three main parties over how the presidency should be renovated, and who should then occupy it.

Outside Islamabad, twin disasters are unfolding. The economy is in a dire way: inflation is running at 25%, as investors flee. In the north-west, a failing campaign against Taliban insurgents is meanwhile screaming for leadership—which neither the army nor the government seems able to provide. Around 300 people are reported to have been killed there, in tribal feuding and insurgency, in the past week.