沙特放心，原油市场就放心了

飞雪寒冰

Over the past week, the oil price appears to have moved in sync with events in Libya. When Gaddafi looked close to quashing the revolution, prices dropped with the expectation that Libyan oil would start flowing again. Every time the rebels have been given a boost, oil prices have gone back up.
过去一周，油价的走势似乎与利比亚事件同步。当形势表明卡扎菲(Gaddafi)即将把革命镇压下去时，油价就下跌，因为市场预计利比亚石油将重新开始流动。而每次当反对派力量获得支撑时，油价就会反弹。

So last Tuesday, as pro-Gaddafi forces neared Benghazi, oil dropped 3.9 per cent. But when UN Resolution 1973 was passed on Thursday, it went up 3.5 per cent. It fell again after Gaddafi announced a ceasfire, but rose as evidence came in of his attacks on rebel-held towns. Today, as markets react to the concerted bombing campaign over the weekend, oil has continued to rise, taking Brent back over $115 a barrel.
因此，上周二，当忠于卡扎菲的军队逼近班加西时，油价下跌了3.9%。但当联合国于上周四通过第1973号决议时，油价上涨了3.5%。在卡扎菲宣布停火后，油价再次下跌，但当有证据表明他袭击了由反对派控制的城镇后，油价又随之攀升。现在，市场对上周末西方的联合轰炸行动作出反应，油价持续攀升，布伦特原油价格重返每桶115美元之上。

飞雪寒冰

Amid this turmoil, the question remains, why is oil moving at all? Of course, Libya is in the top dozen oil exporting countries, but it still only exports about 2 per cent of world oil supply, and what has been lost in the last few weeks has largely been accounted for by increased Opec production.
在这种动荡的形势下，问题仍然是，油价究竟为何波动？诚然，利比亚是全球12个最大的石油出口国之一，但其出口量仅占全球石油供应的2%左右，过去几周丧失的石油出口，基本上已由石油输出国组织(Opec：简称欧佩克)的增产而得到了弥补。

Over the weekend, Shokri Ghanem, the head of the Libyan national oil corporation, said production had fallen from 1.6m barrels a day to less than 400,000. Traders have talked about, in effect, writing off Libyan oil – at least in the short term. Oliver Jakob of Petromatrix says:'As far as oil supplies, in the short term the attacks of the coalition do not change much as exports were already down to almost zero.'


上周末，利比亚国家石油公司董事长夏科里•加尼姆(Shokri Ghanem)表示，该国石油日产量已从160万桶降至不到40万桶。而实际上，交易员一直在讨论对利比亚石油忽略不计——至少短期内如此。Petromatrix的奥利维尔•雅各布(Olivier Jakob)说：“就石油供应而言，短期来看，欧美盟军的袭击就不会造成很大改变，因为利比亚出口几乎已经降至零。”

飞雪寒冰

那么，目前的问题是较长期的前景。当分析师们开始讨论战争可能会被拖延，而政治家们开始更为严肃地讨论政权更迭时，人们担心，在未来的一段时期内，利比亚的石油供应可能会减少。

So what matters now is the longer-term outlook. As analysts begin to talk about a protracted campaign and politicians talk more seriously about regime change, the worry is that Libyan oil supplies could be curtailed for some time to come.And while Saudi Arabia is currently able to keep supplies buoyant, traders are not sure for how long that can remain the case. This is from Stephen Schork of the Schork Report:
其他人表示，市场反映出一种担忧，即危机可能会蔓延到全球最大石油出口国沙特阿拉伯。沙特阿拉伯真正担心的，是巴林的教派争端可能会蔓延到本国东部地区。与巴林一样，那里的人口主要是什叶派(Shia)，但由占人口少数的逊尼派(Sunni)精英统治。

'There is a question that the Saudis have been overproducing recently – and at these prices, who wouldn’t overproduce? But that begs the question, how much spare capacity is Opec already using?'


尽管目前沙特阿拉伯能够保证石油供应充足，但交易员不确定这种情况能够坚持多久。《施洛克报告》(Schork Report)的作者斯蒂芬•施洛克(Stephen Schork)写道：“问题是，沙特阿拉伯最近一直在超额生产，在目前这种价格水平上，谁不会超额生产呢？但这回避了问题的实质：欧佩克已在使用多少备用产能？”

飞雪寒冰

但由于美国坚称，巴林争端应在内部解决，因此巴林政府有能力平息叛乱的可能性看起来越来越大。对于沙特阿拉伯和巴林政府而言，这都将是一种宽慰。

Others have suggested that the market is reflecting concerns that trouble could spill over into Saudi Arabia, which is the world’s top oil exporting country. What really worries the Saudis is the risk that the sectarian dispute in Bahrain could spill over into the east of their own country, which, like Bahrain, is home to a majority Shia population ruled by a minority Sunni elite.

  如果沙特阿拉伯放心了，石油市场也就可以放心了。
But with the US insisting that the Bahraini dispute should be sorted out internally, it looks increasingly likely that the regime there will be able to quell the rebellion. This will be as much of a relief to the Saudi regime as to that in Manama.