中国硬着陆风险被低估

飞雪寒冰

The danger of a hard landing in China is the most underpriced risk in financial markets, according to a survey of more than 1,000 institutional investors by Barclays Capital.
巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)对逾1000家机构投资者所做的一项调查显示，在金融市场上，中国经济出现硬着陆是威胁性最被低估的一种风险。

Some 27 per cent of investors cited the risk of a sharp slowdown in Chinese economic growth as the biggest threat to markets, outstripping fears over political upheaval in the Middle East and North Africa, worries over sovereign debt and the risk of a spike in inflation. The survey was conducted prior to the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan.
约27%的投资者表示中国经济增长急剧减速的风险对市场威胁最大，其威胁性超过中东和北非政局动荡引发的恐惧、以及主权债务和通胀飙升风险引发的担忧。这项调查是在日本发生毁灭性地震和海啸之前进行的。

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“Events in the Middle East have been all over the press. The Chinese hard landing has received less attention and is less priced in,” said Piero Ghezzi, head of economics, emerging markets and FX research at Barclays Capital.
巴克莱资本全球经济、新兴市场及外汇研究主管皮耶罗•盖齐(Piero Ghezzi)表示：“媒体上到处都是关于中东局势的报道。中国经济硬着陆受到的关注较少，其威胁性也被低估了。”

More than three-quarters of investors believe the US Federal Reserve will shy away from raising interest rates this year, even as rates start to rise in the UK and eurozone. Sterling is seen as the global currency most likely to benefit from monetary tightening.
超过3/4的投资者认为，即使英国和欧元区开始加息，美联储(Fed)今年年内也会避免提高利率。英镑被认为是最有可能从货币紧缩政策中获益的一种全球货币。

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The survey respondents believed commodities would be the best performing asset class in the coming quarter, with currencies of big commodity exporters such as Canada, Australia and Norway tipped to strengthen.
受访者认为，未来一个季度表现最佳的资产类别是大宗商品，而加拿大、澳大利亚和挪威等大宗商品出口大国的货币有望走强。