中国需求将推动铀价创历史新高

飞雪寒冰

The price of uranium, the fuel for nuclear reactors, will jump to a record high as surging demand from China stimulates a decade-long bull market, according to forecasts from CRU, a leading commodities consultancy.
大宗商品咨询机构——英国商品研究所(CRU)预测，中国对铀的需求激增，将催生一轮长达十年的牛市，将铀价推高至创纪录高位。铀是建造核反应堆所需的一种燃料。

Uranium has rallied 75 per cent over the past eight months, with the most commonly-traded form at $72.25 a pound this week, down slightly from the 35-month high of $73 reached at the start of February.
过去8个月，铀价已上涨了75%。交易量最大品种的价格本周达到每磅72.25美元，较2月初触及的73美元的35个月高点略有回落。

飞雪寒冰

But Philip Macoun and Ian Hiscock of CRU forecast that demand for the nuclear fuel would outstrip supply every year for the next decade, leading to price spikes that could push nominal prices above the record $136 set during a spike in 2007.
但CRU的菲利普•麦康(Philip Macoun)和伊恩•希斯科克(Ian Hiscock)预测，未来十年，这一核燃料每年都会供不应求，铀价将因此大幅上涨，名义价格可能会突破2007年铀价飙升期间创下的每磅136美元的纪录。

“Uranium has experienced decades of low investment and low prices,” said Mr Hiscock. “We’re now looking at a period of very high activity for the nuclear power market and for uranium over the next five years.” Prices are likely to peak in 2015-17, the consultancy said, predicting an average price of $112 a pound in 2017.
希斯科克表示：“几十年来，铀一直处在低投资、低价格的状态。现在我们认为，未来五年将是核能市场和铀行业非常活跃的一段时期。”CRU称，铀价可能会在2015年至2017年升至创纪录高位，预计2017年铀的平均价格为每磅112美元。

飞雪寒冰

“That’s when you’re going to see the impact at its peak from all the Chinese reactors under construction and supply issues are going to be most difficult,” Mr Macoun said. “You only need a problem at one or two of the major projects under development and you could get a very sharp run up in prices.”
麦康表示：“到那时，所有中国在建反应堆的影响将达到顶峰，供应形势将变得极其严峻。只消一、两个大型开发项目遇到问题，铀价就可能出现非常猛烈的上涨。”

China is planning to construct as many as 187 nuclear reactors in addition to the 13 it already has, according to the World Nuclear Association. CRU said Chinese demand for uranium would quadruple in the next 10 years and by 2030 the country was expected to surpass the US as the world’s largest consumer of uranium. Traditionally, uranium demand has been concentrated in the US, France and Japan.
世界核协会(World Nuclear Association)表示，中国目前已有13个核反应堆，正计划再建设187个。CRU称，中国的铀需求未来十年将翻两番，到2030年，中国有望超越美国成为世界最大的铀消费国。传统上，铀需求主要来自美国、法国和日本。

飞雪寒冰

Supply will struggle to keep pace with the growth in demand after years of underinvestment in new mines. The trend will be exacerbated by falling supply from secondary sources, such as government stockpiles or decommissioned Soviet-era warheads, which accounted for 26 per cent of total uranium supply in 2010 but which will provide just 13 per cent in 2020, CRU said. The bullish forecasts bode well for investors, who have returned to uranium in recent months, as well as the top uranium miners, which include Cameco, Areva, Rio Tinto, Kazatoprom and ARMZ.
由于多年来对新矿投资不足，铀供应将很难跟上需求的增长。CRU表示，次供应源的供应量下滑将会加剧这一趋势。次供应源包括政府储备和退役的前苏联核弹头等，在2010年占到总供应量的26%，但到2020年将仅占13%。这些看涨铀价的预测对于近几个月重返铀市的投资者来说是个好兆头，对于卡梅科(Cameco)、阿海珐(Areva)、力拓(Rio Tinto)、哈萨克斯坦国家原子能公司(Kazatoprom)和ARMZ等顶级铀矿企业来说也是如此。