投资者看好中国抗通胀能力

飞雪寒冰

When China raised interest rates last October – its first rise in almost three years – the move caught investors by surprise, sparking falls in equities, currencies and commodities markets.
中国去年10月份的加息——也是近3年来首次加息——曾令投资者感到意外，并引发股Shi、汇市及大宗商品市场下跌。

But there was barely a ripple this week when Beijing announced an increase in deposit and loan rates to 3 per cent and 6.06 per cent respectively, following a similar move on Christmas day. Shanghai stocks have even made modest gains.
在去年圣诞节再次加息之后，本周中国政府又宣布把人民币存贷款利率分别上调至3%和6.06%。但这一次，市场波澜不惊。上证综指甚至出现小幅上涨。

飞雪寒冰

Investors have taken the last two rate rises in their stride because of a new-found confidence that China will be able to contain inflation without slamming the brakes on economic growth.
投资者之所以未理会最近两次加息，是因为他们重新建立起了信心：中国有能力在不大幅放慢经济增长的情况下遏制通胀。

“The rate hike is a sign of strength rather than something that should trigger fears of a major slowdown,” says Dariusz Kowalczyk, a strategist at Crédit Agricole, capturing the mood of many of his peers.
法国农业信贷银行(Crédit Agricole)策略师达利乌斯•科瓦尔奇克(Dariusz Kowalczyk)表示：“此次加息是实力的表现，而不会引发经济大幅放缓的担忧。”他的许多同行与他看法一致。

飞雪寒冰

China’s battle against stubbornly high inflation is part of a wider war being waged by central banks across emerging markets. But while many investors reckon that Beijing is “behind the curve” in tightening monetary policy, following an explosion in bank lending in 2009 and 2010, few are betting yet that inflation will get out of control.
中国应对居高不下的通胀的努力，是新兴市场各家央行发动的一场更大规模“战役”的一部分。然而，尽管很多投资者认为，在银行贷款于2009年和2010年激增之后，中国政府在收紧货币政策方面相对“落后”，但目前几乎没人押注于中国通胀失控。

The central bank wants to slow the expansion of money and credit in the economy, fearing that inflation and asset bubbles could lead to social unrest. Economists expect that China will lift interest rates two or three more times this year as well as tightening loan quotas, raising bank reserve requirements, and permitting currency appreciation.
中国央行希望放慢本国经济中货币和信贷的扩张，因为担心通胀和资产泡沫可能会导致社会动荡。经济学家们预测，中国今年将再加息两至三次，同时将收紧贷款额度、上调银行存款准备金率并允许货币升值。

飞雪寒冰

But, with Chinese inflation running at around 5 per cent, real interest rates remain negative – an incentive for people to borrow and spend rather than keep their savings on deposit at banks.
然而，考虑到中国通胀率目前处于约5%的水平，因此实际利率仍为负，这将鼓励人们借款消费，而不是把钱存入银行。

The risk is that inflation could prove trickier than expected to control, especially if expectations of higher prices become entrenched in society.
风险在于，控制通胀的难度可能会超出预期，特别是在价格上涨预期在社会上变得根深蒂固的情况下。

飞雪寒冰

That would force Beijing to take more aggressive measures to tighten monetary policy, threatening a sharp slowdown in economic growth. “The authorities are walking a tightrope between bubbles and a hard landing,” says Viktor Shvets, an economist at Samsung Securities.
这将迫使中国政府采取更为大胆的措施来收紧货币政策，这可能造成经济增速大幅放缓。三星证券(Samsung Securities)经济学家维克托•什韦茨(Viktor Shvets)表示：“政府正在泡沫和硬着陆之间走钢丝。”

For investors who want to bet on the future of the Chinese economy, the most obvious way is to trade shares in Chinese companies, many of which are listed in Hong Kong. Some stocks listed in Shanghai can be traded through brokers that have been allotted quotas to invest on the mainland, though shorting these stocks is expensive and difficult.
对于那些希望押注于中国经济未来的投资者而言，最明显的办法是买卖中国企业的股票，其中很多企业在香港上市。一些在上海上市的股票，可以通过获得投资A股额度的券商进行交易，不过卖空这些股票成本高昂，且难度很大。

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There are other ways. China is the world’s largest consumer of commodities from copper to cotton, so the prices of these commodities are closely linked to Chinese demand. Copper, used for pipes and wiring, is relatively easy to trade and fell sharply after China’s rate rise in October.
还有其它一些方式。中国是全球最大的大宗商品（从铜到棉花）消费国，因此这些大宗商品的价格与中国需求密切相关。用于管道和配线的铜交易起来相对容易，在中国去年10月宣布加息之后，铜价大幅下挫。

Daniel Brebner, metals strategist at Deutsche Bank, says: “The [commodities] that could get hit would be the industrial metals particularly. Copper seems to be very sensitive, and you would expect that nickel could be sensitive as well.”
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)金属策略师丹尼尔•布莱伯纳(Daniel Brebner)表示：“可能受到冲击的（大宗商品）尤以工业金属为甚。铜似乎极易受到影响，可以料到，镍的敏感程度也不亚于铜。”

飞雪寒冰

But traders say that the currencies of commodity-producing countries may well be the most efficient way to bet on China’s economic prospects.
但交易员们表示，瞄准大宗商品生产国的货币，很可能是押注中国经济前景的最有效方式。

The Australian dollar, for example, is often used by traders as a proxy for Chinese growth, because of the country’s strong trade links with Beijing. The Aussie dollar and other commodity-linked currencies such as the Canadian dollar and the Norwegian krone have tended to come under pressure when China shows economic weakness.
譬如，由于澳大利亚与中国的贸易往来非常紧密，澳元常常被交易员当作中国增长的晴雨表。当中国经济表现疲弱时，澳元以及加元和挪威克朗等其它与大宗商品相关的货币，往往会面临压力。

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Ian Stannard at BNP Paribas says there is substantial scope for the Australian dollar to weaken as the great “liquidity trade” that has built up since the Federal Reserve began its “quantitative easing” programme unwinds.
法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)的伊恩•斯坦纳德(Ian Stannard)表示，随着大规模“流动性交易(liquidity trade)”开始放缓，澳元存在大幅贬值空间——自美联储(Fed)出台“定量宽松”计划以来，这种“流动性交易”逐渐增多。

He says the flood of liquidity from the Fed has been responsible for inflating emerging market assets, and lifting commodities prices and commodity-linked currencies. Mr Stannard argues that trade is set to reverse as emerging market central banks tighten monetary policy.
斯坦纳德表示，来自美联储的大量流动性，造成了新兴市场资产的膨胀，并推高了大宗商品价格和与大宗商品相关货币的汇率。他表示，随着新兴市场央行收紧货币政策，流动性交易定将逆转。

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“What is not yet completely understood by market participants is that the combination of stronger western growth and higher Asian inflation will terminate the liquidity trade. Expressing this trade in currency terms is selling the Australian dollar,” he says.
斯坦纳德表示：“市场参与者尚未完全明白，西方更强劲增长与亚洲通胀抬头的双重作用，将终结流动性交易。从汇市角度来形容这种交易，就是卖出澳元。”

Andrew Cox, foreign exchange strategist at Citigroup, sees any pullbacks in commodity-linked currencies as a buying opportunity, however. “We believe that China’s determination to slow the pace of inflation bodes well for continued strong growth out of both China and emerging Asia, and bodes well for energy and commodity exporters such as Canada and Norway, and for Australia in particular.”
花旗集团(Citigroup)外汇策略师安德鲁•考克斯(Andrew Cox)则认为，大宗商品相关货币一旦走低，就意味着买入良机。“我们认为，中国降低通胀速度的决心，预示着中国和亚洲新兴国家将继续保持强劲增长，对加拿大和挪威、尤其是澳大利亚等能源及大宗商品出口国也是件好事。”

飞雪寒冰

Jane Foley, FX strategist at Rabobank, says Tuesday’s rate rise was greeted with pragmatism rather than panic given that the market was expecting more monetary tightening this year.
荷兰合作银行(Rabobank)外汇策略师简•福利(Jane Foley)表示，鉴于市场预计到今年中国将进一步收紧银根，中国此次加息并未引起市场的恐慌，反应较为务实。

“This should have a dampening impact on regional stock markets and on asset markets which are most closely linked with Chinese demand,” she says. “That said, the lack of panic in the market on the back of the hike suggests investors have accepted Chinese tightening is a necessary policy reaction.”
“这应该会对地区股Shi以及与中国需求联系最为紧密的资产市场产生负面影响，”简表示。“即便如此，尽管通胀高涨，市场也没有恐慌，表明投资者已认可了中国收紧政策是一种必要的政策反应。”