一场新的美国革命已经到来？

dorm99

　　周二晚上，选民们手攥干草叉越过了防御墙。革命来了。这一晚，共和党的主要选民们在特拉华州、新罕布什尔州和纽约这些重要选区传达了一个明确的信息：如果你是共和党反对改革的保守当权派的一员，那就最好赶紧卷铺盖走人。共和党内的茶叶党新晋候选人克里斯汀·欧唐尼尔（Christine O'Donnell）在特拉华州共和党初选中一举挫败党内当权派候选人麦克·卡斯尔(Mike Castle)。在新罕布什尔州参议院竞选中，共和党候选人凯利·奥特（Kelly Ayotte）在经过了一番努力终于击败茶叶党支持的候选人欧维德·拉蒙塔格尼（Ovide Lamontagne）。这两个州的选民们是凭感情而非理性来投票的--因为落败的候选人本被认为是最有希望角逐大选的。
　　共和党参议院全国委员会现在已经支持了八位落败的候选人。也就是说，这场发自草根的反权威情绪已然威胁到了共和党掌权参议院的机会。
　　对欧唐尼尔的攻击是种个人攻击--说她是个“怪人”。而针对卡斯尔的攻击则是因为某些人觉得他太过自由主义。共和党在特拉华州为副总统拜登腾出的参议院席位所展开的争夺非常出色。但这是一场茶叶党与共和党当权派之间在特拉华州这一小州中的代理人之战。
　　欧唐尼尔，这位所谓的局外人，在2006年和2008年均在参议院竞选中落败。在今年的角逐中，她得到了茶叶党的支持，也得到了共和党前副总统候选人萨拉·佩林(Sarah Palin)和参议员吉姆·狄敏特(Jim DeMint)的支持，后者非常欣赏欧唐尼尔的社会、经济保守主义倾向。虽然和其他一些共和党新贵，如阿拉斯加参议员候选人乔·米勒（Joe Miller）、威斯康星州的肖恩·达菲（Sean Duffy）、犹他州的麦克·李（Mike Lee）或佛罗里达州的马克·鲁维奥（Marco Rubio），欧唐尼尔的履历并不那么耀眼，但她更为保守的立场吸引了一些对不认同卡斯尔政见的人。
　　欧唐尼尔的另一群支持者包括全国步枪协会、SBA List和电台主持马克·莱文。但是由于没有任何公共记录，并且她的个人履历也不尽如人意，欧唐尼尔这位市场营销顾问、社会活动家很快成为了当地共和党当权派和保守的国家级媒体攻击的对象。
　　随着全国范围内的选举氛围变得越来越急躁，卡斯尔的支持率下降了。一项由公共政策民调在上周所做的调查显示，欧唐尼尔以47%的支持率领先于卡斯尔的44%，二人难分上下。但是上月所做的一项大选民调显示，被认为是不可战胜的民主党候选人克里斯·库恩斯（Chris Coons）的支持率落后于卡斯尔，但还是领先于欧唐尼尔。
　　特拉华州的乱象并不意味着共和党处在混乱之中--而是说明参与选举的选民想要表达自身的诉求。共和党的选民的投票率远远超过了预计。一个空有头衔的共和党人在参议院中拥有席位能帮助共和党获得大多数席位。但是选民并不愿意接受这样的结果。在特拉华州，选民们通过向欧唐尼尔投票来证明这样一个事实--茶叶党现在已经不只是一个运动了，它已经成为共和党选民的动力和代表。
　　显然，特拉华州的选民是倾向于支持民主党的“蓝色之州”。虽然参议员约翰o麦凯恩（John McCain）轻而易举地赢得了共和党提名，但奥巴马总统却在2008年赢得了特拉华州超过62%的大众选票。而且，已注册的民主党党员人数有32.9万人，多于共和党党员人数的17.9万人。连特拉华州的州鸟都是“蓝母鸡”--虽不是一个真正存在的动物，但却是在向美国革命战争中的特拉华州英雄们如斗鸡一般的精神致敬。
　　特拉华州仅有3个县和一个选区，人口为885122人，比底特律市的人口还少。对共和党来说，特拉华州又有什么重要的呢？
　　因为共和党还有一些悬而未决的问题使其左右为难。我们（共和党）是谁：反对改革的当权派、茶叶党，还是温和派？我们（共和党）的代理人是谁：佩林还是狄敏特？还是当权派的代表人物德克萨斯州参议员乔o科宁（John Cornyn）或弗吉尼亚州众议员埃里克o肯特（Eric Cantor）？抑或温和派的南卡罗来纳州参议员林赛o格雷厄姆（Lindsey Graham）、缅因州参议员奥林匹亚o斯诺（Olympia Snowe）？2012年我们（共和党）将如何选拔候选人：注重意志的纯洁还是注重实用主义？谁的观点更重要：专家的、政客的还是人民的？
　　特拉华州的竞选如火如荼，但是新罕布什尔州的共和党参议员选举则相对安静一些。狄敏特支持的代理人欧维德·拉蒙塔格尼面对的是佩林支持的首席检察官凯利·奥特。茶叶党的投票在新罕布什尔州可能已被分离。周二深夜时，拉蒙塔格尼占据领先地位，但最终奥特赢得了这场竞赛。这场激烈的竞争体现了共和党选民高涨的热情。
　　在纽约州，布法罗市商人卡尔·帕拉蒂诺（Carl Paladino）击败了共和党当权派支持的候选人、前纽约州众议员里克·拉齐奥，赢得了共和党纽约州州长提名。帕拉蒂诺并不是一位专业政客，显然他不具备这一竞选所需的优势条件，而且他直言不讳的性格也是众所周知。帕拉蒂诺接下去将与民主党人安德鲁·科莫展开激烈角逐。
　　周二的选举结果依然未能解决共和党所面临的问题，这说不上是“人民的统治”。要得到答案也许就要等到11月甚至2012年。共和党中反对改革的当权派和支持改革的一派之间的紧张关系在11月中期选举后将如何发展，我们拭目以待。

英文原文：
The Revolution Has Arrived
by Mark McKinnon
Tea Party upstarts rock Delaware and New Hampshire. Mark McKinnon on a GOP establishment on the run, what voters want—and the coming Republican identity crisis.
Voters grabbed their pitchforks Tuesday night and came over the ramparts. The revolution has arrived. Republican primary voters Tuesday night in key contests in Delaware and New Hampshire and New York sent a clear message, in case anyone had missed it up until now: If you are part of the establishment, you better grab your goodies and get out of the castle while you can.
Tea Party upstart Christine O’Donnell upset Mike Castle in the Delaware GOP primary. In New Hampshire, Kelly Ayotte, the establishment candidate, was battling for survival before being declared the chosen candidate over Ovide Lamontagne in the Senate race there. Voters in both places voted with their hearts and not their heads, with passion more than pragmatism—as the losing candidates were considered far more likely to win the general election.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee (the Establishment) has now backed eight losing candidates. In other words, this grass-roots anti-establishment wave actually threatens the GOP’s chances of taking control of the Senate.
The attacks on O’Donnell were personal; she was “nuts.” The attacks on Castle were on his record; he was too liberal for some. The bitter GOP battle in Delaware for the Senate seat vacated by Vice President Joe Biden was a doozy. But it was a proxy war between the Tea Party and establishment GOP writ large in this small state.
O’Donnell, the perceived outsider, ran unsuccessfully for the Senate in 2006 and 2008. In this race, she was backed by some in the Tea Party movement and by both former Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK) and Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), who were attracted by her social and economic conservatism. Though she did not have the compelling personal bio of other welcome GOP upstarts like congressional candidates Joe Miller of Alaska, Sean Duffy of Wisconsin, Mike Lee of Utah or Marco Rubio of Florida, O’Donnell’s more conservative platform positions appealed to those on the right wary of Castle’s commitment to the cause.

O’Donnell’s other major endorsements included The National Rifle Association, The Susan B. Anthony List and radio host Mark Levin. But with no public record and an imperfect and troubling personal record, the marketing consultant and activist became an easy target for fair and unfair personal attacks by the local Republican establishment and national conservative media.
As the mood in the country became less patient, Rep. Castle’s popularity dropped. A survey by Public Policy Polling last week showed O'Donnell leading Castle 47 percent to 44 percent for a dead heat. But in a hypothetical general election poll conducted over the past month, the uncontested Democratic candidate Chris Coons trailed Castle but led O'Donnell.
The sound and the fury in Delaware are not signs of a party in disarray — they are signs of an engaged electorate who want to make a statement. GOP voter turnout was much higher than expected. While a RINO head mounted on the wall may be a trophy, a RINO seated in a chair in the Senate could have helped make a Republican majority. But voters were unwilling to settle.
By electing O’Donnell, voters in Delaware proved the Tea Party is now more than a movement — it’s become the driving force and voice of Republican voters.  
Delaware is undeniably a blue state. Though Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) won the GOP nomination easily, President Barack Obama won over 62 percent of the popular vote here in 2008. Registered Democrats still outnumber Republicans by roughly 329,000 to 179,000. And the state bird is even the Blue Hen Chicken – not an actual breed but a nod to the cock-fighting spirit of the state’s Revolutionary War heroes.
With only three counties and one congressional district, the state’s population of 885,122 is less than the city of Detroit.  So why does Delaware matter to the GOP?  
Because some of the questions yet to be resolved continue to drive a dilemma within the party. Who are we: Establishment, Tea Party or moderates? Who is our voice: Gov. Palin and Sen. DeMint? Or establishment types like Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA)? Or even moderates like Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine)?  How will we vet candidates for 2012: For purity or practicality? Whose opinion matters more: That of the pundits, the politicians or the people?
Delaware was the marquee race, but in a quieter GOP race for Senate in New Hampshire, DeMint-backed attorney Lamontagne faced the Palin-backed year-long front-runner, Attorney General Kelly Ayotte. The Tea Party vote may have been split here. Lamontagne was leading late in Tuesday evening, but the race eventually went to Ayotte. The tight battle reflects the high-octane energy among GOP voters.
And in New York, Buffalo businessman Carl Paladino beat out the establishment candidate, former Rep. Rick Lazio (R-NY), for the GOP nomination for governor. Paladino is not a professional politician, an apparent advantage in this election cycle, and he is known for speaking his mind. He will face a tough fight against Democrat Andrew Cuomo.
Tuesday’s results still do not provide resounding resolution — other than the people rule, and the people ain’t happy with the keepers of the castle. The other answers may not come until November, or perhaps 2012.  What will be interesting is to see how this tension between the establishment and the revolutionaries in the Republican Party plays out post-November.
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