纽约时报：红色中国，绿色中国

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　　最近墨西哥湾灾难性的原油泄漏事故使舆论焦点又一次转向了清洁能源领域。让一些人感到欣慰的是，对太阳能电池板、节能灯泡等清洁能源设备的需求日趋旺盛。仅2009年一年，全世界在清洁能源技术上的投资就已高达1620亿美元。
　　清洁能源很可能是21世纪最大的市场。而美国所拥有的技术、资金优势和创业精神将使这个国家有能力在今后成为这一市场的主导。然而，最近参议院对清洁能源法案推迟表决的消息却表明了这样一个事实：有效的清洁能源技术政策所需要的一个关键因素已经丧失，即政治意愿已经丧失。这一政治意愿本可以鼓励创新、生产和投资，以把新能源技术投向市场。
　　美国在通往清洁能源的道路上耽搁得越久，它就越是在把这棵摇钱树拱手让给另一个已经做好准备的国家──中国。
　　虽然对中国来说，要成为全球新能源市场的领军者，的确还有很长路要走，但它与美国不同的地方在于，过去几年里中国一直在调整其产业政策以适应这一目标。
　　中国力图成为全球新能源市场领军者，并非是出于对环境保护的考虑，而是出于对就业问题的担忧。在可预见的将来，北京面临的最大挑战就是如何保证就业率并提高人民收入水平。正飞速成长着的清洁技术产业是少数几个能够提供充足就业机会的产业之一。（事实上，我本人就在美国及海外做了新能源投资。）
　　这已经不是中国第一次从气候变暖所带来的机遇中获取经济上的好处了。《京都议定书》限制了欧洲和日本在2012年前的温室气体排放。议定书中包括了多项市场化机制，用以把降低温室气体排放的成本降到最低。其中最大的一项机制就是清洁发展机制。在这一机制下，发展中国家，如中国，可以将其实现的温室气体减排额度卖给发达国家，并能由此得到一笔收入。
　　一开始，北京在碳减排交易市场中的动作并不快。无论是设立国内规管架构，还是发展专门技术，中国的进展都很缓慢，无力在这一市场中竞争。世界银行2004年的一份数据显示，当时中国在全球清洁发展项目中的占有率仅为5%。但是世行最新数据则显示，到2008年，中国的占有率已惊人地高达84%。
　　在清洁能源领域，中国的脚步也将同样迅捷。在2009年，中国在清洁能源领域的投资高达近350亿美元，这几乎是美国投入的190亿美元的两倍。中国在这一领域高额的投入应主要归功于其鼓励使用可再生能源的政策。
　　中国的战略正在奏效。在1999年，中国的太阳能电池板产量仅占世界总产量的1%，但到了2008年，中国已成为全世界最大的太阳能电池板制造国，其市场占有率高达32%，每年出口额达150亿美元。与此同时，2009年美国出口量最大的产品为民用飞机，出口额为350亿美元。
　　如果不采取迅速行动来大幅扩展清洁能源产业，美国将远远被落在后面。因此，参议院的清洁能源法案至少应该在以下三点上采取积极的行动：
　　首先，实行上网电价政策或可再生能源配额制。这两者规定了公共事业单位最少需购买多少可再生能源电量，或规定了其购买价格。一些州已经很好地实行了这两种机制，德克萨斯州的风力发电尤为突出。但是，中国已经制定了全国性的上网电价政策，而联邦政府要想和中国竞争，必须也制定出全国性的政策。

　　其次，通过税收或限额交易来制定碳价，以此鼓励低碳技术。清洁发展机制为发展中国家制定了碳价。在中国，这刺激了成千上万减排项目的上马。在美国，制定碳价也将推动类似项目的开发。
　　最后，重视对碳捕捉和封存技术的研发，并在这一领域保证美国的领先地位。这一领域将带来大量机遇，但没有哪家企业有财力进行独立开发。温室气体最大的来源就是煤炭的燃烧。第一个发展出经济可行的碳捕捉与封存技术的国家，将支配全球碳燃烧行业的减排行动。
　　中国正在积极地把气候变暖带来的全球性挑战转化为本国发展的机遇。如果中国想要成为新能源领域的领军者，就要有足够的技术来保证卓越的生产力和较低的制造成本。而要发展出这样的技术，中国仍需十年。如果美国忽略自身发展，让中国得以有更多时间来增强竞争力，那美国就不仅是新能源技术赛场上的输家，更是一个弃权者。
　　（作者是哥伦比亚商学院的行政管理人员，曾在一家经营减排项目的企业任首席执行官。）

英文原文：


http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/07/opinion/07Usher.html?hp
Red China, Green China
By BRUCE USHER
Published: May 6, 2010
WITH the disastrous oil spill in the Gulf, talk has once again turned to clean energy. What few people appreciate is that the demand for everything from solar panels to energy-efficient light bulbs is already booming. Worldwide, $162 billion was spent in new clean-tech investments in 2009 alone.
The United States, with its expertise, capital and entrepreneurial spirit, is well positioned to dominate what could easily be the biggest market of the 21st century. But as the most recent delay over the Senate energy bill shows, the country is missing a key ingredient in shaping an effective clean-tech policy: the political will to encourage the innovation, manufacturing and investment necessary to bring these new technologies to market. And the longer America drags its feet, the more it cedes this enormous potential source of national wealth to the only other country able to capture it - China.
True, China has a long way to go before it can claim the mantle of global market leadership in clean technology. Unlike the United States, however, it has spent the last few years shaping its industrial policy to achieve precisely that goal.
China's determination to become the global leader in clean tech has little to do with concerns for the environment and everything to do with jobs. For the foreseeable future, the greatest challenge for Beijing is to ensure full employment and rising income levels. The rapidly growing clean-technology sector is one of the few that can provide a sufficient number of new jobs. (Disclosure: I invest in clean energy in America and abroad.)
This wouldn't be the first time China has taken economic advantage of opportunities resulting from climate change. The Kyoto Protocol, which caps greenhouse-gas emissions in Europe and Japan up to 2012, includes market-based mechanisms to promote the reduction of emissions at the lowest cost. The largest of these is the Clean Development Mechanism, which allows developing countries like China to generate credits from cuts in their greenhouse-gas emissions that are then sold to developed countries.
Beijing was initially slow to establish the domestic regulatory structures and develop the expertise needed to compete in this new market. In a 2004 analysis, the World Bank determined that China accounted for a mere 5 percent of clean-development projects globally. But by 2008, the most recent year for which annual data is available, the bank reported that China's market share had climbed to an astounding 84 percent.
Beijing is about to do the same with clean technology. In 2009, its investment in clean energy reached nearly $35 billion, almost double America's $19 billion, primarily due to domestic policies that promote the use of renewable energy. And the strategy is working. In 1999 China made 1 percent of the world's solar panels; by 2008 it was the world's leading producer, with a 32 percent market share, and its solar-panel exports were valued at $15 billion. To put that in perspective, in 2009 America's No. 1 export product by far was civilian aircraft, with exports of $35 billion.
Without fast action to greatly expand our clean-tech industry, the United States will be left behind. As such, the Senate energy bill, at a minimum, needs to take aggressive action on the three following points:
First, institute national feed-in tariffs or a renewable portfolio standard - two ways to require that utilities buy clean energy in a minimum amount or at a certain price. Such standards have been effectively put into practice in several states, most notably in Texas with wind power, but only a federal program will provide the scale necessary to compete with China, which has a national feed-in tariff program of its own.
Second, establish a price on carbon via either a tax or a cap-and-trade program to encourage low-carbon technologies. The Clean Development Mechanism placed a price on carbon in developing countries, initiating thousands of emissions-reduction projects in China. Putting a price on carbon in the United States would provide an incentive for domestic developers to build similar projects here.
Finally, get serious about supporting the research and development of carbon capture and storage, and maintain America's lead in a field that offers enormous opportunity but is too large for any one company to finance. Coal is the No. 1 source of greenhouse gas emissions, and the first country to develop economically viable capture-and-storage technology will dictate the terms for reducing carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired utilities globally.
China is busy turning the global challenge of climate change into a national opportunity, but it needs another decade to advance its technology to the point where superior manufacturing and lower costs will secure its dominance of the clean-tech sector. By giving China more time to develop its capacity while neglecting our own, America is not just losing the clean-tech race, it's forfeiting it.
Bruce Usher, an executive in residence at Columbia Business School, is the former chief executive of a company that operates emission reduction projects.
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