美国中期选举民主党形势严峻

飞雪寒冰

Barack Obama’s Democratic party faces a series of dramatic defeats at every level of government in Washington and beyond in the November midterm ­elections, according to leading analysts and opinion polls.
根据主要分析师的意见与民意调查结果，在11月的中期选举中，巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)领导的民主党将面临从华盛顿到各级政府的一系列重大挫折。

The University of Virginia’s widely-monitored Crystal Ball will tomorrow forecast sweeping setbacks on Capitol Hill and the loss of a clutch of state governorships on November 2.
弗吉尼亚大学(University of Virginia)受到广泛关注的水晶球网站(Crystal Ball)明日的预测将是，11月2日民主党将在国会遭遇惨败，并在多个州的州长选举中失利。

飞雪寒冰

It follows a Gallup poll that showed the Republicans with a 10 percentage point lead over the Democrats – the widest margin in 68 years. Separately, a University of Buffalo paper has predicted a 51-seat gain for Republicans in November.
此前的盖洛普民意调查(Gallup Poll)显示，共和党的支持率比民主党高出10个百分点，这是68年来的最大差距。此外，纽约州立大学水牛城分校(University of Buffalo)的一份报纸预测称，11月共和党在国会的席位将增加51个。

The Democrats have a 39-seat majority in the House of Representatives. Many believe Democratic control of the Senate is also at risk.
目前民主党在众议院(House of Representatives)拥有39个多数席位。许多人认为，民主党在参议院的控制权也可能失去。

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“Voters are going to deliver a big fat message to President Obama, which he will not want to hear,” said Larry Sabato, who runs Crystal Ball. “The Republican base is at least 50 degrees further to the right than where it was when Newt Gingrich took control of the House in 1994, so we would be looking at two years of absolutely nothing getting done on Capitol Hill.”

“选民将向奥巴马总统传递出一个让人印象深刻的重大信息，这将是他不愿意听到的，”运行水晶球网站的拉里•萨巴托(Larry Sabato)表示。“与1994年纽特•金里奇(Newt Gingrich)担任众议院议长时相比，共和党的选民基础至少向右翼偏了50度，因此我们会看到未来两年，国会什么事都做不了。”

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The numbers, which threaten Mr Obama with a “wave election” similar to those of 1994 and 2006, when Democrats wrested back control of the House after 12 years, also extend to key states.
民调结果意味着，奥巴马总统有可能会遭遇一场与1994年及2006年相似的“浪潮选举”(wave election)——民主党于2006年赢回了失去了12年的众议院控制权。这些结果也适用于几个关键州的选举。

According to local polls, Democrats are on course to lose the governorships of traditionally left-leaning states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania and may be vulnerable in Illinois, long a party bastion.
当地民调显示，民主党将失去密歇根州和宾夕法尼亚州等传统左倾州府的州长席位，而在传统的民主党地盘伊利诺伊州，其前景也岌岌可危。

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Such is the scale of the expected losses that analysts are already focused on how Mr Obama can turn Republican domination to his advantage in his 2012 re-election race.
预期中民主党的失败是如此势不可挡，以至于分析师们已经开始专注于分析奥巴马如何能在2012年的选战中，将共和党的主导地位转化为自身优势。

Washington is awash with speculation on whether the Republicans will over-reach as Mr Gingrich did in 1995 when Bill Clinton won a stand-off that had resulted in the shutdown of government.
在华盛顿，人们议论纷纷，猜测共和党是否会像1995年时金里奇那样越俎代庖，当时的僵局导致政府瘫痪，但最终还是总统比尔•克林顿(Bill Clinton)胜出。

飞雪寒冰

“The political environment for Democrats is now every bit as poisonous as it was for them in 1994 and for Republicans in 2006,” said Charlie Cook, the widely tracked electoral forecaster.
“民主党当前的政治环境就和1994年时民主党以及2006年时共和党所面临的一样糟糕，”广受关注的选举预言家查理•库克(Charlie Cook)表示。

The expected groundswell is driven by the composition of voter turnout, which at about 40 per cent would be significantly lower than the 63 per cent that brought Mr Obama to power. According to polls, likely Republican voters are twice as motivated to vote as Democrats.
预期中的舆情转变，受到了选民投票率构成的推动，40%的投票率要远远低于奥巴马当选时的63%。民调显示，共和党选民参与投票的可能性是民主党选民的两倍。