必和必拓应小心“被宰” Watched Potash boils

飞雪寒冰

A hostile bid in fertile territory, or fertile minds getting carried away? Industrially, BHP Billiton’s $39bn offer for Canada’s PotashCorp makes some sense. Demand for potash – used to improve crop yields – is robust and PotashCorp is the largest producer, with more than a fifth of global mineral fertiliser capacity. The key word is “producer”. BHP has ample potash exploration acreage of its own in the Saskatchewan basin but getting its Jansen project to the production stage could take five years and, Morgan Stanley estimates, capital expenditure totalling $10bn-$12bn. Buying PotashCorp would bring forward BHP’s potash cash flows, and give it 30 per cent of the market. Nor would the acquisition be a stretch financially: the $45bn of debt lined up by BHP would lift the ratio of net debt to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation to just 1.2 times.


在肥料行业进行敌意收购——是不是有人热昏了头？从产业角度看，必和必拓(BHP Billiton)对加拿大钾肥公司(PotashCorp)的390亿美元收购报价有一定道理。钾肥用于提高农作物收成，需求旺盛，而加拿大钾肥公司是最大的生产商，拥有全球逾五分之一产能。这里的关键词是“生产商”。必和必拓自己在加拿大的萨斯喀彻温盆地也拥有大片钾肥勘探区域，但该公司的Jansen项目可能需要5年时间才能投产，而且据摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)估计，资本支出总额可能达到100亿至120亿美元。收购加拿大钾肥公司将使必和必拓提前从钾肥得到现金流，并使其占据30%的市场。这宗收购对财务状况也不会构成多大压力：必和必拓安排的450亿美元债务额度，将把其净债务与扣除利息、税项、折旧及摊销前的盈利(Ebitda)之比提高至仅1.2。

飞雪寒冰

Yet it is hard to escape the impression that BHP is overpaying. For one, its opening $130 a share offer represents a substantial 32 per cent upfront premium to Potash shares’ 30-day average and is 46 per cent above their year low of $89 last month. The potash bull story peddled by Bill Doyle, the Canadian miner’s chief executive, was already reflected in its pre-offer share price. Further, BHP’s planned merger with Rio Tinto promised clear synergies – its potash foray offers few.
然而，人们很难避免这样的印象，即必和必拓的出价太高了。别的不说，其每股130美元的初始报价对加拿大钾肥公司的30天平均股价有32%的可观溢价，而且比后者上月达到的89美元年内低点高出46%。加拿大钾肥公司首席执行官比尔•多伊尔(Bill Doyle)兜售的有关钾肥的乐观前景，早已反映在该公司接到收购报价前的股价中。此外，必和必拓所计划的与力拓(Rio Tinto)的合并有望带来明确的聚合效益，其对加拿大钾肥公司的收购则几乎不会产生任何聚合效益。

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Still, Mr Doyle scents a higher price. But with bidding starting so high, an auction seems unlikely. A Chinese bidder may yet emerge. Rio however, fresh from selling its potash business to Vale, is unlikely to rustle up $40bn with memories of its Alcan debt pile still fresh. Vale at least has the financial firepower for a deal.


多伊尔仍预感有人会开出更高的报价。但鉴于初始报价已经如此之高，似乎不太可能出现竞购。中国竞购方可能会出现。但刚把旗下钾肥业务出售给巴西淡水河谷(Vale)的力拓，则不太可能为此筹措400亿美元；该公司对收购加拿大铝业(Alcan)后的沉重债务负担仍记忆犹新。淡水河谷至少有财务实力达成交易。

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Tempting though it may be to pull off a flagship acquisition after failing to net Rio and with the Pilbara joint venture looking shaky, Marius Kloppers, BHP’s boss, has no excuse to become undisciplined on price. After all, Anglo-Australian miners have a patchy record (hello Rio-Alcan) when it comes to buying Canadian companies.


对必和必拓首席执行官高瑞思(Marius Kloppers)来说，在未能收购力拓、而“两拓”在澳大利亚皮尔巴拉(Pilbara)地区铁矿石合资项目前景又不确定的情况下，完成一宗大型收购可能具有诱惑力。但这不能成为在价格方面放松原则的借口。毕竟，英澳矿商在收购加拿大企业方面的记录好坏不一（力拓-加拿大铝业就是一例）。