Snap decision

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Sep 10th 2008
From the Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire

Canada's government calls an early election


Prolonged speculation over whether Canada’s minority Conservative government would call an early election has ended with Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s announcement that voters will go to the polls on October 14th. This is a full year ahead of the date Mr Harper proposed in legislation submitted after he assumed power in January. In putting aside that date, Mr Harper says he aims to address the “dysfunctional” parliament. However, it is more likely that yet another minority government will emerge.

Both Mr Harper and the opposition Liberal Party have recently dropped hints that they might be ready to go to the polls sooner rather than later. Mr Harper earlier insisted that his minority government would not precipitate an election before the scheduled 2009 date. But he laid down the gauntlet in early August, challenging the Liberals to pass various pieces of Conservative legislation when parliament reconvenes on September 15th, or to topple the government by joining forces with the other two opposition parties to reject the bills.

The prime minister further fanned the election speculation on August 13th with comments that he would soon need to “make a judgment” on whether “parliament can function productively”, given stalled legislation and “chaos” in the functioning of parliamentary committees.

The Liberal leader, Stéphane Dion, had up now rejected such taunts, insisting that his party would not bring down the government until it was confident of victory. But several senior Liberals told the media in recent weeks that Mr Dion and his key lieutenants saw the autumn as an opportune time.

Each side has good reason for a change of heart. The Conservatives are concerned that their support could be eroded by the softening economy, particularly in light of persuasive evidence that the housing boom of the past few years is over. The Tories have held office since January 2006, an unusually long period for a minority government in Canada, and Mr Harper’s approval ratings are held up. The Liberals, however, are confident that they will have the advantage, gaining a boost from the winds of change in the US, which have propelled Barack Obama to be selected the presidential candidate of his Democratic Party.

tauringhuang.

Even chances?
This will be the third national election for Canada in just over four years, and highlights the difficulty recent governments have had in garnering majority support at the polls. Both the major parties had for months appeared wary of pushing for an early election until they had strong enough backing to win a majority. Until recently the Conservatives enjoyed a slim lead in opinion polls, allowing them to force the Liberals to back down in parliament. Some recent polls show both parties holding nearly equal popular support. The Tories have been damaged by a series of scandals that have tarnished their public image; the latest of these, a campaign-financing scandal, is currently being examined by a parliamentary committee. This has benefited the Liberals, but they have also been troubled by questions over Mr Dion's leadership and by difficulties in communicating their own policies to the electorate.

The Liberals have tried to boost their standing with their new "green shift" environmental policy initiative. This has been attacked by the Tories as a tax grab, but the Liberals have become bolder, particularly in the light of the deteriorating economy. The summer session of parliament was characterised by the abstention of the Liberals from a number of key votes, to avoid triggering an early election. Yet this position by the party was unsustainable and made the Liberals look weak.

More of the same
The Conservatives will go into the election with several other strengths. They have raised more money and are generally considered to be better organised than the Liberal, even though the latter have dominated Canadian politics for much of the past century. And although Mr Harper is not a charismatic politician, his popularity ratings are higher than those for Mr Dion, a former academic.

Regardless of the closeness of the polling data, the Economist Intelligence Unit believes that the October general election is likely to produce another Conservative victory, although without a majority. This will again leave the government dependent on an alliance with at least one of the opposition parties in order to advance legislation, and will limit the Conservatives' ability to implement their policy agenda.

Prolonged speculation over whether Canada’s minority Conservative government would call an early election has ended with Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s announcement that voters will go to the polls on October 14th. This is a full year ahead of the date Mr Harper proposed in legislation submitted after he assumed power in January. In putting aside that date, Mr Harper says he aims to address the “dysfunctional” parliament. However, it is more likely that yet another minority government will emerge.

Both Mr Harper and the opposition Liberal Party have recently dropped hints that they might be ready to go to the polls sooner rather than later. Mr Harper earlier insisted that his minority government would not precipitate an election before the scheduled 2009 date. But he laid down the gauntlet in early August, challenging the Liberals to pass various pieces of Conservative legislation when parliament reconvenes on September 15th, or to topple the government by joining forces with the other two opposition parties to reject the bills.


The prime minister further fanned the election speculation on August 13th with comments that he would soon need to “make a judgment” on whether “parliament can function productively”, given stalled legislation and “chaos” in the functioning of parliamentary committees.

The Liberal leader, Stéphane Dion, had up now rejected such taunts, insisting that his party would not bring down the government until it was confident of victory. But several senior Liberals told the media in recent weeks that Mr Dion and his key lieutenants saw the autumn as an opportune time

Each side has good reason for a change of heart. The Conservatives are concerned that their support could be eroded by the softening economy, particularly in light of persuasive evidence that the housing boom of the past few years is over. The Tories have held office since January 2006, an unusually long period for a minority government in Canada, and Mr Harper’s approval ratings are held up. The Liberals, however, are confident that they will have the advantage, gaining a boost from the winds of change in the US, which have propelled Barack Obama to be selected the presidential candidate of his Democratic Party.

tauringhuang.

Even chances?
This will be the third national election for Canada in just over four years, and highlights the difficulty recent governments have had in garnering majority support at the polls. Both the major parties had for months appeared wary of pushing for an early election until they had strong enough backing to win a majority. Until recently the Conservatives enjoyed a slim lead in opinion polls, allowing them to force the Liberals to back down in parliament. Some recent polls show both parties holding nearly equal popular support. The Tories have been damaged by a series of scandals that have tarnished their public image; the latest of these, a campaign-financing scandal, is currently being examined by a parliamentary committee. This has benefited the Liberals, but they have also been troubled by questions over Mr Dion's leadership and by difficulties in communicating their own policies to the electorate.

The Liberals have tried to boost their standing with their new "green shift" environmental policy initiative. This has been attacked by the Tories as a tax grab, but the Liberals have become bolder, particularly in the light of the deteriorating economy. The summer session of parliament was characterised by the abstention of the Liberals from a number of key votes, to avoid triggering an early election. Yet this position by the party was unsustainable and made the Liberals look weak.

tauringhuang.

More of the same
The Conservatives will go into the election with several other strengths. They have raised more money and are generally considered to be better organised than the Liberal, even though the latter have dominated Canadian politics for much of the past century. And although Mr Harper is not a charismatic politician, his popularity ratings are higher than those for Mr Dion, a former academic.

Regardless of the closeness of the polling data, the Economist Intelligence Unit believes that the October general election is likely to produce another Conservative victory, although without a majority. This will again leave the government dependent on an alliance with at least one of the opposition parties in order to advance legislation, and will limit the Conservatives' ability to implement their policy agenda.