Surprise presidential choice

tauringhuang.

Jul 23rd 2008
From the Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire

A blow to the Maoist in Nepals


Nepal has elected its first president after abolishing the monarchy and declaring the country a republic. Surprisingly, however, the winner of the July 21st run-off vote was not the candidate backed by the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), or CPN (M)—which won the most seats in the constituent-assembly election in April—but Ram Baran Yadav of the mainstream Nepali Congress (NC) party. The result is a blow to the Maoists' hopes of dictating the direction of constitutional reform, and the former rebels' reaction to this setback will be crucial to political stability.

Mr Yadav won 308 out of 590 votes in the constituent assembly. Ramraja Prasad Singh, the candidate supported by the CPN (M), won only 282. Although the presidential post is largely ceremonial for the time being—the nature of the political system and future extent of presidential powers will be among many subjects to be wrangled over as the constituent assembly drafts a new constitution—the election result is nonetheless significant for a number of reasons.

The first of these is that the former rebels' party, the CPN (M), coveted the position to enhance both its domestic and international prestige, particularly in view of the party's efforts to present itself as a respectable peacetime political organisation. (The US government still considers the CPN (M) a terrorist organisation.) Securing the presidency would have cemented the CPN (M)'s status as the country's leading political party, following the election in April.

In more pragmatic terms, the CPN (M) also wants to secure the post of prime minister. Having control of both that job and the presidency would have helped the party to dominate the domestic political landscape. Indeed, wrangling over the top political jobs has occupied the major parties since the April election, and has been one of the main reasons why the Maoists have yet to form a government. Clearly, influence over the constitutional-reform process is crucial to each party's prospects for advancing its own agenda and ensuring its long-term relevance, and recognition of this fact has only added to the intensity of opportunistic horse-trading.

The result of the presidential vote is also significant because it shows the ability of other parties to unite against the CPN (M). It appears that Mr Yadav was elected as president in large part because the NC, the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) and the Madheshi People's Rights Forum (MPRF) put their differences aside to vote for him. These parties are the second-, third- and fourth-largest in the constituent assembly, behind the CPN (M). If the Maoists had been expecting to dominate the next government, or at least to be the largest party in the government, the presidential vote shows that other parties still have room to thwart its ambitions, not only in the choice of political appointments but potentially over matters of policy or constitutional reform as well. This apparent unity should not be overstated, however, as the mainstream non-Maoist parties have long failed to co-operate effectively and deep-seated differences among them remain. Nonetheless, the Maoists are likely to have been chastened by the latest events.

The Maoists remain highly influential, however—their rise as a legitimate political force has been the defining trait of the country's recent transformation—and it would be hard to imagine the next government without the CPN (M). Yet this is precisely the situation that looms as a result of the party's failure to secure the presidency for its preferred candidate. As of July 22nd, the CPN (M) was reported to be considering its options, having made it clear that one of those options was not to join the government. But such a scenario would be highly damaging to political instability; the former armed rebels, having in essence been co-opted by the promise of legitimate political power, may have second thoughts about the peace process if they do not gain the political influence that they feel they deserve. Already, the delay in forming a government is casting a cloud over the country's political prospects.

The election of Mr Yadav as president is also noteworthy because of its implications for the ethnic Madheshi people from Nepal's southern plains. Mr Yadav, a doctor, is himself a Madheshi. His election, combined with the success of parties like the MPRF in the April poll—in which it won 52 elected seats—suggests that the Madheshi constituency's increasingly vocal calls for recognition and representation now have a stronger chance of being satisfied. As Madheshi people have been at the centre of considerable recent unrest, this is potentially positive for political instability. But any such gains on this limited front will not count for much if the Maoists, sulking over political losses, turn away from the peace process or undermine the reform effort.