欧中贸易战一触即发？

飞雪寒冰

The European Union will from this week raise tariffs on Chinese exports of high-end glossy paper used for magazines and catalogues, opening another chapter in efforts to stem a growing tide of goods from the Asian nation.
欧盟(EU)本周起将对中国出口的高档铜版纸（用于杂志和产品目录）提高关税，欧盟遏制中国产品大量流入的努力掀开了新的篇章。

The case marks the first time the EU has penalised China for using what it says are illegal state subsidies to boost its industries. Until now the bloc has relied on the more widely used penalties for dumping, in which a company exports its goods below cost.
这是欧盟首次以其所称的政府利用非法补贴提振产业为由，对中国出台惩罚措施。此前欧盟一直依靠更普遍采用的反倾销惩罚措施，即某家公司以低于成本的价格出口产品。

飞雪寒冰

The decision to target Beijing’s subsidies reflects a worry among European businesses and policymakers that China’s exports – once confined to industries such as shoes and bicycles – are rapidly climbing the value chain to threaten the continent’s high-end manufacturers.
把矛头指向中方补贴的决定，反映了欧洲企业和政策制定者的一个忧虑，即一度局限于鞋类和自行车等产业的中国出口，正向价值链上方快速攀升，对欧洲的高端制造商构成威胁。

The man responsible for the shift is Karel De Gucht, who took over as Europe’s trade commissioner in 2010. Whereas his predecessors, particularly Lord Mandelson, granted more concessions to China in hopes it would reciprocate, Mr De Gucht, a former Belgian foreign minister, has promised a firmer approach.
造成这一政策转变的，是在2010年出任欧盟贸易专员的卡洛•德古赫特(Karel de Gucht)。他的前任，尤其是曼德尔森勋爵(Lord Mandelson)，曾给予中国更多让步，期望对方能够回报，但德古赫特这位比利时前外长承诺采取更强硬的做法。

飞雪寒冰

His aides argue that subsidy cases are vital because they help shine a light on unfair advantages, including government grants of cheap land and financing, that they believe are central to China’s exporting prowess.
他的助理们辩称，反补贴案件至关重要，因为它们有助于曝光中国企业享有的不公平优势，包括政府提供的廉价土地和融资。欧方相信，这些不公平优势对中国的强大出口能力不可或缺。

“For the Chinese, this is much more worrying than an anti-dumping case because now we are going to the heart of their system,” said one EU official, who likened the subsidy case to “launching a torpedo against the mother ship”.
“对中方来说，这比反倾销案麻烦得多，因为现在我们直指中国制度的核心，”一名欧盟官员表示。这名官员把这起反补贴案件比作“向母舰发射一枚鱼雷”。

飞雪寒冰

Song Zhe, China’s ambassador to the EU, disputed that. “Chinese products are on the market in Europe because of their merits alone,” he said. “I don’t think the success is due to low-cost dumping or subsidies.”
中国驻欧盟使团团长宋哲对此表示异议。“中国产品出现在欧洲的市场上，纯粹是由于它们的价值，”他表示。“我不认为这种成功是因为低成本倾销或补贴。”

In spite of the ambassador’s measured words, analysts and trade lawyers are worried that Beijing is planning a more aggressive response. China has already opened an investigation into possible subsidies for German potato starch.
尽管宋哲大使的措辞颇有分寸，但分析师和贸易律师们担心，北京正计划作出不那么客气的回应。中国已对德国马铃薯淀粉可能得到补贴一事启动调查。

飞雪寒冰

Hosuk Lee-Makiyama, co-director of the European Centre for International Political Economy, a Brussels think-tank, believes more such cases will be forthcoming. “A new trade war is looming,” he wrote in a recent article about the paper case, predicting disastrous consequences for both sides.
布鲁塞尔智库欧洲国际政治经济中心(ECIPE)的联席主任李-牧山浩石(Hosuk Lee-Makiyama)相信，还会出现更多此类案件。“一场新的贸易战即将爆发，”他在近期一篇有关纸张案件的文章中写道。他预计双方都会遭受灾难性的后果。

Mr Lee-Makiyama also questioned the wisdom of the commissioner’s approach, given Europe’s own tradition of subsidising agriculture and other industries. But others argue that the extent of China’s subsidies demands action.
鉴于欧洲自身在农业以及其它行业的补贴传统，李-牧山浩石还质疑欧盟贸易专员的做法是否明智。但其他人辩称，中国补贴的程度意味着有必要采取行动。

飞雪寒冰

“China is moving up the value-added chain. When you see the effect of subsidies on those products, it really starts to hit home,” said Laurent Ruessmann, a trade lawyer at Crowell & Moring in Brussels. “What De Gucht is doing is looking for ways to modernise and strengthen EU trade policy.”
“中国正向增值链上方移动。当你看到补贴对那些产品的影响时，就会真的开始明白一切，”布鲁塞尔Crowell & Moring律师事务所贸易律师劳伦特•吕斯曼(Laurent Ruessmann)表示。“德古赫特正在做的，是设法加强欧盟的贸易政策，并使其现代化。”

The paper case has its shortcomings, say observers. Chinese competitors accounted for less than 5 per cent of the EU market, a relatively small margin.
观察人士表示，纸张案件有其缺陷。中国竞争对手在欧盟市场所占份额不到5%，这是一个相对较小的比例。

飞雪寒冰

However, officials at the European Commission argue that China’s market share is fast growing. More broadly, they say it is not easy to bring subsidy cases because European companies are reluctant to complain publicly about China for fear of retribution.
不过，欧盟委员会(European Commission)的官员们辩称，中国的市场份额正在快速增长。他们表示，全局而言，启动反补贴案件并不容易，因为欧洲企业不愿公开抱怨中国，以免遭到报复。

“They come over and they put pressure not just on member states, but businesses – even businesses that have nothing to do with the case,” said Adrian van den Hoven, a trade specialist at BusinessEurope, the continent’s largest employers’ group.
“它们到这里来，给成员国乃至企业都带来了压力——甚至是与本案不相干的企业，”欧洲最大的雇主团体——商业欧洲(BusinessEurope)的贸易专家阿德里安•范•登霍文(Adrian van den Hoven)表示。

飞雪寒冰

In an effort to blunt China’s lobbying influence, the EU is poised to change the way it decides trade cases. Until now, member states have had the final say over a Commission recommendation to impose duties. But from next year the Commission proposal will go through unless there is a broad majority opposed. The effect, say trade analysts, is that member states should be able to point the finger at Commission bureaucrats when Chinese officials voice displeasure.
为削弱中国的游说影响力，欧盟将改变就贸易案件作出裁决的方式。迄今为止，成员国对欧盟委员会关于开征关税的建议具有最终发言权。但从明年起，除非遭到广泛多数反对，否则欧盟委员会的提议将得到通过。贸易分析师表示，其效果是，当中国官员表示不满时，成员国可将责任推到欧盟委员会的官员身上。

There is speculation in Brussels that Mr De Gucht may be pushing for an even bigger change: the authority to launch anti-subsidy investigations without formal complaints.
布鲁塞尔有人猜测，德古赫特可能在推动一项更大的变化：在未接到正式申诉的情况下启动反补贴调查的职权。

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