中国不会发生金融危机？

飞雪寒冰

The chairman of Bank of China has dismissed suggestions that China could face its own banking crisis as a result of an unprecedented expansion of state-directed credit in the past two years.
中国银行(Bank of China)董事长肖钢对外界的一些说法表示不以为意，这些说法认为，过去两年中国在政府指令下信贷空前扩张，其结果是中国可能面对自己的银行业危机。

“Some analysis and estimates from outside say there could be a financial crisis in China in the next few years,” Xiao Gang, chairman the country’s third-largest lender by market value, said on the sidelines of the annual National People’s Congress in Beijing.
“外面有一些分析和估算，称未来几年内中国可能发生一场金融危机，”这位中国市值第三大银行的董事长在北京全国人大年会间隙表示。

飞雪寒冰

“But I think the chances of a big increase in bad loans in the banking sector are very small.”
“但我认为，银行业不良贷款大幅增加的几率很小。”

Chinese banks lent about Rmb17,500bn ($2,667bn) in the past two years alone, compared with just more than Rmb4,500bn in 2008, as Beijing responded to the global economic crisis by opening the credit floodgates and ramping up infrastructure construction.
仅仅在过去两年，中国各银行就发放了大约15.7万亿元人民币（合2.667万亿美元）的贷款，而2008年的新增银行贷款仅为略高于4.5万亿元人民币。面对当时的全球经济危机，北京方面的回应是打开信贷闸门，加大基础设施建设力度。

Much of the new lending found its way into real estate and local government infrastructure projects. Analysts and even some Chinese bankers say the credit binge has helped fuel inflation and many of the loans will not be repaid.
新增贷款中有很大一部分流入了房地产和地方政府基建项目。分析师——甚至中国一些银行业人士——表示，这种信贷狂潮加剧了通胀，而很多贷款将无法偿还。

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Mr Xiao acknowledged that non-performing loan ratios at Chinese banks were almost certain to rise from their current low levels of below 1 per cent, but he said there would not be a big jump in bad credit.
肖钢承认，几乎可以肯定，中国各银行的不良贷款率会从目前不到1%的较低水平上升，但他表示，不会出现不良信贷大幅飙升的情况。

Fitch, the rating agency, issued a warning last June and again in November that China was likely to face a banking crisis within the next three years as a result of the credit surge, according to the standardised risk assessment it does for most large economies.
评级机构惠誉(Fitch)在去年6月和11月两次警告称，根据该机构对多数大型经济体进行的标准化风险评估，信贷激增的结果是：中国可能在未来三年内面对一场银行业危机。

飞雪寒冰

Mr Xiao said Chinese banks had so far not seen any widespread examples of distressed borrowers unable to repay loans and he expressed confidence that Beijing would be able to maintain fast and stable growth in the coming years.
肖钢表示，中国各银行迄今没有看到大量借款者陷入困境、无力偿还贷款的情况，同时他表示，对于中国政府能够在未来几年保持快速稳定的增长抱有信心。

He said the fact Chinese banks had expanded loans rapidly in recent years to individual retail customers to buy houses and cars also lowered the risk of a banking crisis.
他表示，中国各银行近年对买房和买车的个人零售客户大幅增加放贷，也降低了银行业危机的风险。

飞雪寒冰

“Everybody knows Chinese people have a tradition of repaying debt and will only borrow what they can afford to pay back in the future,” Mr Xiao said.
“谁都知道中国人有还债的传统，而且只会借自己将来有能力偿还的金额，”肖钢表示。

Cultural aversion to debt delinquency was a common argument put forward during consumer credit booms in countries such as South Korea and Taiwan prior to the Asian financial crisis – but in both those cases borrowing habits quickly changed, leading to a rapid build-up of bad loans.
亚洲金融危机之前，在韩国、台湾等经济体经历消费信贷繁荣期间，“文化上反感欠债”曾是一种常见的说辞，但在韩国和台湾，人们的借款习惯迅速发生了改变，导致不良贷款快速累积。

飞雪寒冰

China’s last financial crisis peaked more than a decade ago when the government bailed out and restructured the state-owned banking sector following a state-directed lending binge in the mid-1990s that resulted in bad debt ratios as high as 50 per cent by some estimates.
中国的上一场金融危机在10多年前达到顶峰，当时政府对国有的银行业进行了纾困和重组。此前在90年代中期发生了政府指令下的放贷狂潮，按照一些人的估算，那场放贷狂潮造成高达50%的不良贷款率。

The government has ordered banks to lend less this year and has lifted the ratio of deposits they must hold in reserve with the central bank at least five times since last October.
中国政府已指示各银行今年减少放贷，自去年10月以来，还至少5次提高了银行存款准备金率。

飞雪寒冰

Mr Xiao said BoC expected to extend about Rmb600bn in new loans this year, compared with about Rmb620bn last year, but this was unlikely to have a big impact on profits as rising interest rates would provide higher returns on loans and bonds.
肖钢表示，中行预计今年发放约6000亿元人民币新贷款，低于去年的大约6200亿元人民币，但这不太可能对利润造成重大影响，因为利率上升将提高贷款和债券的回报率。