人民币升值一举两得？

飞雪寒冰

There has been plenty of talk about fighting inflation at China’s annual National People’s Congress this week and a lot of talk about boosting demand. But one way of addressing both aims – a stronger currency – has been almost completely ignored by the top leadership. Yi Gang, central bank deputy governor, has merely claimed that the renminbi’s current exchange rate, 3.9 per cent stronger against the US dollar since June last year, is the closest it has been to “equilibrium”.
在本周举行的中国全国人大年会上，许多人谈论抗击通胀，也有许多人谈论促进需求。但是同时解决这两个问题的一个方式——人民币升值——却几乎完全被最高领导层忽视。中国央行副行长易纲只是宣称，人民币当前汇率最接近“均衡水平”。自去年6月以来，人民币兑美元汇率升值3.9%。

As much as the politburo would like the currency question to go away, it is unlikely to. US Treasury secretary Tim Geithner’s assertion last week that the renminbi remains “substantially undervalued” marked a re-emergence of a narrative that had faded since June, when the People’s Bank said it was replacing its two-year-old peg with a managed float.
尽管**中央政治局很希望汇率问题就此消失，但这是不太可能的。美国财长蒂姆•盖特纳(Tim Geithner)上周断言，人民币仍“被大幅低估”，这标志着自去年6月以来消退的说法卷土重来——当时中国人民银行(PBoC)表示，用有管理的浮动汇率制度取代实施了两年的盯住美元汇率制度。

飞雪寒冰

Today’s trade data may show a halving of China’s trade surplus over the first two months, year on year, strengthening the impression that a rebalancing is under way. But even if the full-year surplus falls as much as it did last year, China will still be set for a mega-surplus of some $170bn. As Capital Economics points out, a US index of Chinese export prices was up by less than 1 per cent in dollar terms in December. In other words, once currency appreciation is factored in, factory gate prices in renminbi continue to fall. The external pressure will stay on.


今日发布的贸易数据可能显示，今年头两个月中国的贸易盈余同比减半，进一步让人们觉得中国正在再平衡。然而，即便今年全年的贸易盈余降幅与去年一样，中国仍将出现约1700亿美元的巨额盈余。正如资本经济(Capital Economics)指出的那样，按美元计算，一个衡量中国出口价格的美国指数去年12月的涨幅不到1%。换言之，一旦计入货币升值因素，以人民币计价的出厂价格仍在继续下降。外部压力仍将持续。

Internally, too, resentments will fester. China has not resolved the tension between the tradable goods sector – which says it cannot cope with appreciation of more than 3 to 5 per cent a year – and consumers, who must surely want the greater purchasing power that cheaper imports would bring. Perhaps the most significant disclosure from the congress so far is that, in 2011 for the first time, China will spend more on internal security than on the military. In spite of the choreographed calm at the Great Hall of the People, Beijing is braced for unrest.

在中国国内，不满也将滋长。中国没有解决可贸易商品部门与消费者之间的紧张关系——前者称无法应对每年逾3%-5%的升值，而后者肯定想要进口价格降低带来的更大购买力。本届中国人大年会迄今或许最为重大的声明是，中国2011年的维稳支出将首次超过军事。尽管人民大会堂内处于精心编排的平静，但中国政府正准备迎接不安定。