G20巴黎峰会：别抱太大期望

飞雪寒冰

In the run-up to France’s G20 presidency, Nicolas Sarkozy last year called for sweeping changes in global economic governance, warning that a lack of vision would make the forum irrelevant.
在法国担任20国集团(G20)轮值主席国前夕，尼古拉•萨科齐(Nicolas Sarkozy)去年曾呼吁对全球经济治理进行全面改革。他警告，缺乏远见将让G20变得无关紧要。

But faced with a struggle for consensus, the French government has since struck a more muted note.
但意识到要达成共识的艰难之后，法国政府从此采取了更为温和的语调。

飞雪寒冰

Finance ministers from the G20 group of leading economies meeting in Paris this weekend expect incremental change rather than revolution.
本周末将汇聚巴黎的G20财长们期待的是渐进式改变，而不是一场革命。

Rapid progress on the main subject – exchange rates and economic imbalances – is unlikely, as the divisions between the big economies, apparent at the G20 summit in Seoul last November, remain.
由于在去年11月G20首尔峰会上显现出来的大型经济体之间的分歧仍未消除，主要议题——汇率与经济失衡——不大可能迅速取得进展。

飞雪寒冰

Meanwhile, two newer issues for discussion – the dollar’s dominance as a reserve currency and governments’ use of capital controls – are likely to take a while to resolve.
此外，两个较新的议题——美元作为储备货币的主导地位与政府对资本管制的使用——可能要花上一段时间才能解决。

Eswar Prasad, former head of the International Monetary Fund’s China department and now at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC, says: “I see a lot of agreement on broad principles but not much agreement on specifics.”
华盛顿布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)经济学家、国际货币基金组织(IMF)中国部前负责人埃斯瓦尔•普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)表示：“我看见大家在一般性规则上达成了很多一致意见，但在具体细节上的共识却不多。”

飞雪寒冰

Governments, with the help of the IMF, are moving towards agreeing “indicative guidelines” intended to help reduce global imbalances, though not without resistance from the likes of China, which has been quibbling about the focus on current accounts rather than a narrower measure of trade in goods and services.
在IMF的推动下，各国政府正接近达成旨在帮助减轻全球失衡的“指导性方针”。但这种努力也受到了包括中国在内的一些国家的DIZHI。对于将关注重点放在经常账户，而非商品与服务贸易这一更为狭窄的衡量标准上，中国一直颇有微词。

But with countries such as Germany opposing numerical targets for those indicators, and given the failed attempts to broker global rebalancing deals in the past, it remains to be seen whether there will be any substantial shift on policy.
但鉴于德国等国反对为这些指标设定数字目标，加上以往撮合全球再平衡协议的努力屡次失败，政策是否会发生重大转变，仍有待观察。

飞雪寒冰

Governments, with the help of the IMF, are moving towards agreeing “indicative guidelines” intended to help reduce global imbalances, though not without resistance from the likes of China, which has been quibbling about the focus on current accounts rather than a narrower measure of trade in goods and services.
在IMF的推动下，各国政府正接近达成旨在帮助减轻全球失衡的“指导性方针”。但这种努力也受到了包括中国在内的一些国家的DIZHI。对于将关注重点放在经常账户，而非商品与服务贸易这一更为狭窄的衡量标准上，中国一直颇有微词。

But with countries such as Germany opposing numerical targets for those indicators, and given the failed attempts to broker global rebalancing deals in the past, it remains to be seen whether there will be any substantial shift on policy.
但鉴于德国等国反对为这些指标设定数字目标，加上以往撮合全球再平衡协议的努力屡次失败，政策是否会发生重大转变，仍有待观察。

飞雪寒冰

Governments, with the help of the IMF, are moving towards agreeing “indicative guidelines” intended to help reduce global imbalances, though not without resistance from the likes of China, which has been quibbling about the focus on current accounts rather than a narrower measure of trade in goods and services.
在IMF的推动下，各国政府正接近达成旨在帮助减轻全球失衡的“指导性方针”。但这种努力也受到了包括中国在内的一些国家的DIZHI。对于将关注重点放在经常账户，而非商品与服务贸易这一更为狭窄的衡量标准上，中国一直颇有微词。

But with countries such as Germany opposing numerical targets for those indicators, and given the failed attempts to broker global rebalancing deals in the past, it remains to be seen whether there will be any substantial shift on policy.
但鉴于德国等国反对为这些指标设定数字目标，加上以往撮合全球再平衡协议的努力屡次失败，政策是否会发生重大转变，仍有待观察。

飞雪寒冰

Any hope of a big move in the entrenched battle lines of the currency wars also seems at best premature. With US monetary policy remaining very loose, emerging market countries such as Brazil continue to accuse Washington of creating destabilising capital flows: a complaint only heightened by rising food prices and general inflation in many developing countries.
此外，往好了说，指望已有的汇率战争的“战线”会发生重大变动，似乎也为时过早。鉴于美国的货币政策仍然非常宽松，巴西等新兴市场国家将会继续指责美国创造了破坏稳定的资本流：食品价格不断上升、许多发展中国家普遍出现通胀，只会加剧这种批评。

The US has long argued that the main cause of such distortions are the manipulated exchange rates of countries such as China, which put upward pressure on other currencies.
美国长期以来一直认为，此类扭曲的主要原因是中国等国家操纵汇率，对其它货币构成了上行压力。

飞雪寒冰

But despite complaints directed by Brasilía to Beijing, and a visit to Brazil last week by Tim Geithner, US Treasury secretary, Washington has yet to assemble a firm alliance with other emerging market capitals.
但尽管巴西对中国表示了不满，美国财长蒂姆•盖特纳(Tim Geithner)上周也出访了巴西，美国却迄今尚未与其它新兴市场国家结成牢固的同盟。

Guido Mantega, Brazil’s finance minister, said on Tuesday that there was no joint plan of action with Washington to put pressure on China. “Brazil is as concerned with the weakening of the US dollar as it is with the Chinese currency,” he told reporters.
巴西财长吉多•曼特加(Guido Mantega)周二表示，巴西没有与华盛顿联合行动向中国施压的计划。他告诉记者：“巴西对美元走软的担忧，不亚于对人民币的担忧。”