力拓的“新烦恼”

飞雪寒冰

What a difference two years can make. In early 2009, Rio Tinto was frazzled and, mid-crisis, groaning under $40bn of Alcan acquisition debt and scrabbling for cash. Now its biggest challenge is using up its abundant cash flow. Thanks to rising Asian commodities demand and surging prices, the Anglo-Australian miner’s underlying earnings in 2010 were $14bn and cash flow was $24bn. But crisis-chastened chief executive Tom Albanese remains cautious. He fears that the withdrawal of post-crisis stimulus packages could trigger volatility and substantial swings in commodity prices.



两年时间会让局面发生多大的变化啊。2009年，力拓身处危机之中，在收购加铝(Alcan)带来的400亿美元债务重压下苦不堪言，急切需要现金。如今它最大的挑战却是如何花完充裕的现金流。由于亚洲大宗商品需求的提高和价格飙升，这家英澳矿业企业2010年实现基本利润140亿美元，现金流240亿美元。不过，受尽危机磨难的首席执行官艾博年(Tom Albanese)仍然谨小慎微。他担心，危机后刺激计划的退出，可能造成大宗商品价格的大幅振荡。

飞雪寒冰

He has put the latest upswing in the commodities supercycle to good use: profits and $11bn of disposals have cut net debt to $4.3bn and gearing is only 6 per cent. With its debt pile tamed – improving its chances of regaining the single A rating lost after it bought Alcan – the miner can also afford to return cash to shareholders. It increased its annual dividend by 140 per cent to 108 cents and launched a $5bn buy-back, cannily spread over two years, lest Mr Albanese’s concerns come true too fast.


在慷慨散财的同时，力拓今年还将投资130亿美元（超过去年资本支出的两倍）支持内部增长，在经济周期持续期间全速发展业务。即便如此，力拓仍有足够资金进行适度规模（低于50亿美元）的并购，如对Riversdale矿业发出的39亿美元收购。不过并购并不属于业务重点。

飞雪寒冰

Rio will balance its largesse by investing $13bn this year (more than double last year’s capital expenditure) to support organic growth and keep operations at full tilt while the cycle lasts. Even that leaves enough for modest (sub-$5bn) mergers and acquisitions, such as its $3.9bn offer for Riversdale Mining. M&A is not a priority, however， The iron ore-heavy results were largely priced in: Rio’s shares, up 30 per cent this year, fell 2.5 per cent in Thursday’s falling market. But given Mr Albanese’s caution, Rio will need to keep repeating such results if its shares, trading on 7.8 times forecast current year earnings, are to close the gap with less iron ore-dependent rivals Anglo American and BHP Billiton.

力拓业绩严重依赖于铁矿石，这一点基本上已在股价中得到体现：力拓股价今年上涨30%，周四随市场行情下跌2.5%，为当前年度预期收益的7.8倍。但考虑到艾博年的谨慎，力拓要想弥合与不那么依赖铁矿石的竞争对手英美资源(Anglo American)及必和必拓(BHP Billiton)在股价上的差距，就必须不断重复这种业绩。