中国首超日本成为世界第二大经济体

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　　上海--本周一发布的政府数据显示，经过三十年的迅猛发展，中国在今年第二季度取代日本，成为仅次于美国的世界第二大经济体。
　　尽管这一里程碑的到来早在意料之中，但它仍最有力地证明，中国之崛起千真万确，世界各国必须做好准备，迎接一个新兴经济强国。
　　本周一日本官方宣布其第二季度经济总量为1.28万亿美元，略低于中国的1.33万亿美元，从而确认了中国“全球经济亚军”的地位。东京方面称，日本该季度经济增长0.4%，远低于预期。这一颓势也预示着今年全年中国经济都将领先日本。
　　专家认为，从近年来一路赶超英、法、德，到今日超越日本，中国的影响力日益彰显，这也支持了中国最快将在2030年取代美国坐上世界经济“头把交椅”的预言--美国2009年的国内生产总值约为14万亿美元。
　　“此番取代日本意义重大，” 彼得森国际经济研究所（the Peterson Institute for International Economics）经济学家尼古拉斯·拉迪（Nicholas R. Lardy）说。“它再次证实了贯穿过去十年大部分时间的情况：中国经济的表现让日本黯然失色。对中国所在区域的每个人而言，他们现在最大的贸易伙伴是中国，而非美国、日本。”
　　对遭遇十余年经济停滞的日本，这些数据意味着经济和政治实力的衰落。据世界银行统计，日本在过去的近四十年始终把持着全球第二大经济体的宝座，80年代甚至有言论称日本经济有朝一日将超越美国。
　　当日本经济日趋成熟，人口加速老龄化之际，中国仍在为城市化苦苦挣扎，远称不上发达。因此分析人士认为，这意味着后者生活水平更低，发展空间也更大。就在5年前，中国的国内生产总值还只有2.3万亿美元，约为日本的一半。
　　中国国土面积接近美国，但这片土地却为全世界五分之一的人口和匮乏的资源所累，其人均收入在3600美元上下，与阿尔及利亚、萨尔瓦多、阿尔巴尼亚等穷国相当，而美国的人均收入约为4.6万美元。
　　然而，很少有人质疑，中国在共产党的领导下，凭借其在全球贸易中日益凸显的主导地位、庞大的外汇储备、持有的巨额美国国债以及它对石油、煤矿、铁矿石和其他自然资源的巨大需求，已重塑了世界经济的运行模式。
　　中国俨然已是全球增长的主要推动力。中国领导人在国际舞台上也自信了许多，通过特别贸易协定和价值数万亿美元的资源交易，他们在亚洲、非洲、拉丁美洲发挥了日益重要的影响。
　　“他们对全球经济施加了诸多影响，正在成为亚洲的主导力量，”国际货币基金组织中国分部前主管、康奈尔大学贸易政策专家埃斯瓦尔o普拉萨德教授（Eswar S. Prasad）说。“该地区其他许多经济体都沾了中国的光，这对于一个人均收入如此低的国家来说非同一般。”
　　在日本，普遍的心态是接受现实。虽然日本在世界舞台上的风头渐渐被中国盖过，但它本身也是中国经济腾飞的受益者：最初，日企将生产转移到中国，利用当地廉价劳动力，后来中国最低工资水平的上涨则为日本商品开辟了一个诱人的广阔市场。
　　分析人士认为，在许多议题上，中国也开始决定全球对话的进程；比如去年它就声称，必须废除美元作为世界主要储存货币的功能。
　　在美欧经济从这场数十年不遇的危机中挣扎出来、逐渐回暖之际，中国早已通过大力投资基础设施和5860亿美元的刺激计划，在全球经济排行榜上持续攀升。
　　今年，尽管增长势头有所放缓，但预计中国经济的增速仍有望达到10%左右，从而保持连续三十年两位数的惊人增长。
　　“这只是个开始，”瑞士联合银行经济学家王涛说。“中国仍然是发展中国家。因此，还有很大的增长空间。在俄罗斯、印度、澳大利亚和拉丁美洲，中国对当地商品价格都有巨大影响。”
　　尽管如此，中国经济仍面临严峻挑战。经济学家表示，中国经济过度依赖出口、投资，还需继续鼓励国内消费，这也是中国正努力实践的。
　　中国大部分国有银行近日爆出去年严重放贷过度，并通过抹去收支平衡表上的部分借贷记录，掩盖信贷行为，规避遏制信贷增长的相关规定。
　　中国的货币政策也受到来自美国、欧盟和其他国家的非议，它们认为中国人为压低人民币汇率，以促进出口。这为中国创造了巨大的贸易顺差，却使美国、欧盟蒙受重大贸易赤字。中国则称人民币未被低估，它也在积极推进货币改革。
　　不用说，中国的高速发展既意味着它将继续与美、欧在自然资源上进行激烈角逐，也将为有意在此开拓市场的公司提供巨大的商机。
　　虽然目前中国经济总量仍只有美国经济的三分之一，但中国去年已超过美国，成为世界最大客运车辆市场。去年，中国也取代德国成为世界最大出口国。
　　卡特彼勒公司、通用电气、通用汽车、西门子等国际公司也正通过将研发中心迁至此处，为中国的发展注入更为强劲的动力。
　　有分析师指出，虽然中国十分希望成为金融、经济强国，努力推动国企“走出去”，但是它仍不愿在气候变化和温室气体减排的争论中承担更重的戏份。
　　2006年，中国超过美国，成为世界第一大温室气体排放国。科学家认为这种气体是全球变暖的罪魁祸首。但中国也已制订出雄心勃勃的节能减排目标，计划在2010年将单位经济产出能耗量相比2006年削减20%。
　　评估中国新展现的影响力需要复杂的手段。这个国家虽然人均收入水平低下，其政府却有极大的魄力刺激经济，发展新项目，对特定领域进行投资。
　　彼得森研究所的拉蒂先生说，这将赋予这个国家非同寻常的力量。
　　“中国已经是几乎所有主要产品的重要定价人，”他说。“中国政府比起其他同等人均收入水平国家的政府，能在决定资源分配的问题上发挥大得多的作用。”

　　本报驻东京记者田渊广子对此文亦有贡献。

英文原文：


China Passes Japan as Second-Largest Economy
By DAVID BARBOZA
Published: August 15, 2010

SHANGHAI - After three decades of spectacular growth, China passed Japan in the second quarter to become the world's second-largest economy behind the United States, according to government figures released early Monday.
The milestone, though anticipated for some time, is the most striking evidence yet that China's ascendance is for real and that the rest of the world will have to reckon with a new economic superpower.
The recognition came early Monday, when Tokyo said that Japan's economy was valued at about $1.28 trillion in the second quarter, slightly below China's $1.33 trillion. Japan's economy grew 0.4 percent in the quarter, Tokyo said, substantially less than forecast. That weakness suggests that China's economy will race past Japan's for the full year.
Experts say unseating Japan - and in recent years passing Germany, France and Great Britain - underscores China's growing clout and bolsters forecasts that China will pass the United States as the world's biggest economy as early as 2030. America's gross domestic product was about $14 trillion in 2009.
"This has enormous significance," said Nicholas R. Lardy, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "It reconfirms what's been happening for the better part of a decade: China has been eclipsing Japan economically. For everyone in China's region, they're now the biggest trading partner rather than the U.S. or Japan."
For Japan, whose economy has been stagnating for more than a decade, the figures reflect a decline in economic and political power. Japan has had the world's second-largest economy for much of the last four decades, according to the World Bank. And during the 1980s, there was even talk about Japan's economy some day overtaking that of the United States.
But while Japan's economy is mature and its population quickly aging, China is in the throes of urbanization and is far from developed, analysts say, meaning it has a much lower standard of living, as well as a lot more room to grow. Just five years ago, China's gross domestic product was about $2.3 trillion, about half of Japan's.
This country has roughly the same land mass as the United States, but it is burdened with a fifth of the world's population and insufficient resources.
Its per capita income is more on a par with those of impoverished nations like Algeria, El Salvador and Albania - which, along with China, are close to $3,600 - than that of the United States, where it is about $46,000.
Yet there is little disputing that under the direction of the Communist Party, China has begun to reshape the way the global economy functions by virtue of its growing dominance of trade, its huge hoard of foreign exchange reserves and United States government debt and its voracious appetite for oil, coal, iron ore and other natural resources.
China is already a major driver of global growth. The country's leaders have grown more confident on the international stage and have begun to assert greater influence in Asia, Africa and Latin America, with things like special trade agreements and multibillion dollar resource deals.
"They're exerting a lot of influence on the global economy and becoming dominant in Asia," said Eswar S. Prasad, a professor of trade policy at Cornell and former head of the International Monetary Fund's China division. "A lot of other economies in the region are essentially riding on China's coat tails, and this is remarkable for an economy with a low per capita income."
In Japan, the mood was one of resignation. Though increasingly eclipsed by Beijing on the world stage, Japan has benefited from a booming China, initially by businesses moving production there to take advantage of lower wages and, as local incomes have risen, by tapping a large and increasingly lucrative market for Japanese goods.
Beijing is also beginning to shape global dialogues on a range of issues, analysts said; for instance, last year it asserted that the dollar must be phased out as the world's primary reserve currency.
And while the United States and the European Union are struggling to grow in the wake of the worst economic crisis in decades, China has continued to climb up the economic league tables by investing heavily in infrastructure and backing a $586 billion stimulus plan.
This year, although growth has begun to moderate a bit, China's economy is forecast to expand about 10 percent - continuing a remarkable three-decade streak of double-digit growth.
"This is just the beginning," said Wang Tao, an economist at UBS in Beijing. "China is still a developing country. So it has a lot of room to grow. And China has the biggest impact on commodity prices - in Russia, India, Australia and Latin America."
There are huge challenges ahead, though. Economists say that China's economy is too heavily dependent on exports and investment and that it needs to encourage greater domestic consumption - something China has struggled to do.
The country's largely state-run banks have recently been criticized for lending far too aggressively in the last year while shifting some loans off their balance sheet to disguise lending and evade rules meant to curtail lending growth.
China is also locked in a fierce debate over its currency policy, with the United States, European Union and others accusing Beijing of keeping the Chinese currency, the renminbi, artificially low to bolster exports - leading to huge trade surpluses for China but major bilateral trade deficits for the United States and the European Union. China says that its currency is not substantially undervalued and that it is moving ahead with currency reform.

Regardless, China's rapid growth suggests that it will continue to compete fiercely with the United States and Europe for natural resources but also offer big opportunities for companies eager to tap its market.
Although its economy is still only one-third the size of the American economy, China passed the United States last year to become the world's largest market for passenger vehicles. China also passed Germany last year to become the world's biggest exporter.
Global companies like Caterpillar, General Electric, General Motors and Siemens - as well as scores of others - are making a more aggressive push into China, in some cases moving research and development centers here.
Some analysts, though, say that while China is eager to assert itself as a financial and economic power - and to push its state companies to "go global" - it is reluctant to play a greater role in the debate over climate change or how to slow the growth of greenhouse gases.
China passed the United States in 2006 to become the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, which scientists link to global warming. But China also has an ambitious program to cut the energy it uses for each unit of economic output by 20 percent by the end of 2010, compared to 2006.
Assessing what China's newfound clout means, though, is complicated. While the country is still relatively poor per capita, it has an authoritarian government that is capable of taking decisive action - to stimulate the economy, build new projects and invest in specific industries.
That, Mr. Lardy at the Peterson Institute said, gives the country unusual power. "China is already the primary determiner of the price of virtually every major commodity," he said. "And the Chinese government can be much more decisive in allocating resources in a way that other governments of this level of per capita income cannot."

Hiroko Tabuchi contributed from Tokyo.
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